For a while there the most sensible money move if you had a small apartment available was to rent it out in a short term basis on Air BnB, but that market has crashed lately.
Does that mean more units looking for long term tenant and with more supply will we see lower rent prices? So far rents are down about 7% since December, will they bounce back soon?
[…] –the unemployment […]
Exfiltraction of capital from PRC to North America looking more stable than ever…
“In worst-case scenarios under consideration by the Bank of China (601988.SS) (3988.HK) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) (601398.SS) (1398.HK), the lenders are looking at the possibility of being cut off from U.S. dollars or losing access to U.S. dollar settlements, two sources said.
[…]
The worst-case scenario under consideration by the Bank of China also envisions what would happen in the event of a run on its branches in Hong Kong if customers feared that it would run out of U.S. currency, one of the sources said.”
“B.C.’s unemployment rate falls for first time in months, but at least four B.C. cities saw their unemployment rates go up”, CTV News
“At least four B.C. cities saw their unemployment rates go up in June.”
Vancouver 13.1 per cent (up from 10.7)
Kelowna 10.2 per cent (up from 9.6)
Abbotsford-Mission 8.8 per cent (up from 7.5)
Victoria 11 per cent (up from 10.1)
LOL
Everyone so busy “releasing pent up demand” that they don’t even have time to go to their jobby jobs.
“But things are starting to improve in the province’s economy and James said more than 118,000 people found jobs last month. She also said the employment gains made in both May and June brought back about 40 per cent of the total job losses seen since February. ”
When you add this week in, we have already gained back HALF the jobs lost! Amazing stuff. Once we wind CERB down, even more gains will be had.
The worst is behind us and I’m excited for the future!
Sold $360,000 above assessed after 7 days on the market in East Vancouver. 27 year old house.
1028 E 31ST AVENUE
Vancouver – Fraser VE V5V 2X5
(Vancouver East) Reported SOLD
Jul 8, 2020
$1,875,000
MLS® R2470265
Pumper said:
“Yawn… Sure West Van and Kerrisdale mansions. Meanwhile 99% of the market has been stable.”
The usual trope from the pumpers has always been that Vancouver is a world class city that attracts billionaires from around the world, and they are not making any more land. And……..
Seems rather strange that the mansions should take a beating.
HOLY FUCK
Admin, warm up a new entry.
If anything gets its’ own post, it’s this.
Look up “tectonic shift” on Wikipedia and you get a disambiguation page.
One link goes to geology, the other goes to that time that China started financially punishing every Chinese person who chooses to live in Vancouver.
“It’s not just paychecks. The rules also subject income from dividends and property sales to taxation back home”
Not because of that. If Canada started taxing Chinese families based on the fathers global income, then yes.
They are earning money in China and living here tax free. China – low tax. Canada high tax.
You think there aren’t Chinese-owned businesses in the lower mainland?
Also, they are taxing the gains from housing sales as well.
Short story = Money laundry go bye bye. Smurfing money here becomes pointless because it is still being overseen by PRC.
The Chinese government has the balls to do IN CANADA what our banana republic leaders won’t.
>You think there aren’t Chinese-owned businesses in the lower mainland?
Of course there are. But they aren’t astronaut families.
>Also, they are taxing the gains from housing sales as well.
You’re right, that is significant if they can enforce it. Chinese have no problem putting assets in other people’s names. White people have almost no understanding of this stuff. White ppl can’t even talk about money issues. Where as Chinese openly talk about scams and fraud and laugh about how clever they are and how dumb white people are.
Even the most petty scams. It’s like a hobby.
You’re right. It depends on how far will the CCP will enforce this. It all may be a ploy to catch their “naked officials”.
CCP has access to all financial records of all banks in China and Hong Kong. They also have a reciprocity agreement with Canadian law enforcement for information sharing. To be clear, a Chinese subpoena for bank records will be fulfilled by Canadian banks. This has been true for some time, but what is new is CCP announcing active enforcement in other countries. Recall that China is not rule-of-law a democracy with due process: If they decide that you’re guilty, you’re guilty. Funny business transactions are easy to find; nowadays even CRA uses AI to find them. CCP will comb through HSBC’s ledgers like a fishing trawler through a school of herring. Hard to hide and export millions using paper cash. It all ends up touching the bank/unionpay/alipay at some point. Meaning that any PRC or HK national who wants to… Read more »
I think in the long term the slow moving decoupling will end HAM. This may down on ppl in 7 years or so.
America is decoupling this summer…potentially even removing the HKD to USD peg.
Chinese Harvard students told to go home.
Trump directly sanctioning Chinese politburo officials, going after their bank accounts.
Wealthy Hong Kongers fleeing in droves, as one would .
China:Canada connection severed by the Meng:2Michaels brouhaha.
Hope everyone who was planning to profit has taken their winnings because Vancouver ain’t a secret sweet spot to hide out in relative safety and anonymity anymore.
Just the opposite.
It’s defiantly sped up.
>Hope everyone who was planning to profit has taken their winnings because Vancouver ain’t a secret sweet spot to hide out in relative safety and anonymity anymore.
I’ve been expecting the decopoling for 3 years. See my past posts.
The dope doesn’t get that the action in the housing market had PROVEN there is no bubble. The market is stable and even rising in certain segments. The anemic growth of listings is the death knell of the bubble case. The first step for the deniers is to put that idea to bed.
It’s possible to make a case for a modest correction, which I wouldn’t agree with, but I could at least credit the logic. But, maintaining the idea that we’re in a bubble is complete and utter delusion.
Uhh lots of segments have declined 25-40%. In a sustained drop since 2017.
That right there is the definition of a bubble bursting.
But aside from constant, sustained price declines, it is PROVEN that there is no bubble.
Just ask the people who lost a combined 87 Billion in home equity from August 2018-July 2019 according to the BC Assessor’s office.
They know that your PROOF trumps their newfound poverty.
Yawn… Sure West Van and Kerrisdale mansions. Meanwhile 99% of the market has been stable.
LOL
Everyone in my friend group has lost six figures in home equity. Everyone. Also my sibling.
We are ordinary, middle class, middle aged. Some couples with two professional jobs and some with one.
Only one couple has has a high-end house, and by that I mean $2MM.
Everyone else has an apartment or townhouse. All have lost more than one years’ take home pay.
Not sure what you mean by stable, but this is the real impact on real people.
And before you say “assessments don’t mean anything”, several have had their assessments confirmed by the sale of comparables nearby.
Nobody is disputing that prices have corrected for the last couple years. Guess what? I called that and I was posting all sorts of bearish stuff before it happened. Last Fall I turned bullish again because the data was showing that the market had bottomed.
A mild correction is very different from a bubble.
The Realtor’s ™ own fudgey numbery metric (HPI) has shown a pronounced downward trend for upwards of 4 years.
http://www.chpc.biz/uploads/9/7/9/5/9795010/chart-vancouver_orig.jpg
I have no idea how you can spin that to mean “stable”, but I do know that you are going to.
Please post your outrageous lie below this comment.
Which specific segments have dropped 25-40%? List them, please.
Umm…single family homes in ugly and boring middle class neighbourhoods?
Which neighborhood?
West Vancouver as an example.
West Van is an ugly and boring middle class neighborhood?
The ones with no redeeming features, not close to much, laid out in boring grid streets.
Where lots of houses have overgrown lawns and haven’t been entered in years.
Where there are half-finished construction sites that are sitting idle, the temporary wooden scaffolding weathered from spending one or many winters untouched.
Some lots are holes in the ground and some are surrounded by rented metal fencing with “keep out” signs, overgrown now with blackberries.
Black mould and moss dot the outsides of houses that were built in the last 20 years. Grey and dirty, they have not been maintained in a long time.
You know, the nice neighbourhoods in Vancouver.
So we’re back to the high end again?
Nothing high end about these neighbourhoods…or houses.
Which neighborhoods?
Sure sweety. Could you go parrot Rennie talking points somewhere else? It’s like the 20th time you give the same speech.
Why don’t you understand?
Dave is just really worried. Can you blame him?
The pumping charlatan continues to flaunt his ignorance by referencing economic events as supportive of his denial of a housing bubble.
What a sham.
If the Vancouver market was driven by economic fundamentals, the price of a crack house would not be 20 times household income.
And with all this “great news” why are sales in Vancouver lethargic.
The other Canadian bubble markets are back to the madness, as short lived as it will be.
The CMHC thinks there is a bubble.
Maybe they should ask Dave to set them straight.
No they don’t.
Well ok I guess I meant to say that THE CEO OF CMHC thinks there is a bubble.
Also his analysts.
Technically I don’t know if they speak for the broader CMHC.
Oh, no, wait. Yes they do.
The CEO of the CMHC speaks for the CMHC. Which thinks there is a bubble.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/Nfld?src=hashtag_click
Our experts predict that the avg. home price in Flag of Canada could drop by 9%-18% from pre #COVID19 levels. Here’s our forecast range for #SK, #MB, #NS, #NB, #PEI & #Nfld. Dive deeper in the full report: http://ow.ly/qfCb50A6lix
Are you off your meds today Dave?
The CMHC revised that forecast a couple of weeks later, and they’re no longer predicting 18% at the top of their range.
LOL yeah acting independently they landed on 18%. Then they got feedback from your industry and decided they had “recalculated” the crash to not be as bad.
Their recalculation shows a 16% drop for Vancouver over 4 years:
https://financialpostcom.files.wordpress.com/2020/06/june-23.jpg
This of course would be a time period when it should be rising at least 6% per year, compounding. (=26% over 4 years.)
So there you have houses being worth 42% less than expected in 2022 according to the “revised for political correctness” CMHC forecast.
How you can see that as “stable” or “not the apocalypse” I do not know.
If I lost 42% of my home’s value I would be underwater and therefore homeless. Also not far from broke. That is literally Evan Siddall’s forecast.
Why should it be rising at 6%?
And why do you think the forecast was revised out or “political correctness”? Just bizarre.
Real estate needs to at least track inflation, or do a little better. This covers borrowing costs and transaction costs, and gives a small margin for appreciation.
I was being generous with 6% — a reference appreciation rate for major cities.
Are you stating here and now that Real Estate should not gain 6% per year, and that sub-6% gains are normal?
That I can buy a house, pay 3% annually in borrowing/opportunity costs, 1.5% annually to operate and maintain it, plus 5% at the end in transaction fees, but if the house sold for what I bought it for that’s just fine?
Sounds like a nice way to light thousand dollar bills on fire. You can’t really mean that, can you?
Don’t be so hard on the propagandist, or he may leave!
And why do you think not? Just bizzare.
Canada BLOWS past expectations to gain almost MILLION jobs.
Added jobs, or just uncanceled them temporarily pending the next wave?
If you cancel a million jobs then reopen a quarter of them, do you get to take credit for creating 250,000 jobs?
Yes, you take credit. Nobody said or expected all the jobs to come back in June. It’s going to take a long time for unemployment to get sub 6 again; maybe the better part of a decade. That’s not the important point, which is that jobs are coming back more QUICKLY than was expected. That portends well for the economic recovery.
“As restrictions eased, the number of people participating in the labour force grew by about 786,000 after May’s 491,000 gain, bringing those considered in the labour force to within 443,000 of its pre-pandemic level.”
We’re within 443k and just had a 1 Million gain in a month. Pretty amazing!
I once ordered two bottles of shampoo from amazon. And received two bottles of shampoo.
PRETTY AMAZING!!
Oooh…465,000 part-time positions!
Nice!!!
Wait until CERB winds down. That will feed another spike in jobs. Lots (most?) of people taking CERB are doing it as a paid vacation.
When CERB winds down more people will join the job search which raises the unemployment rate.
Watch!
I agree with Dave.
Many have noticed that CERB > ( Salary – Childcare )
The dynamic will obviously change when CERB expires.
Said everybody on CERB that I have an anecdote about.
Personally, I’m not surprised. You could see it with the traffic. Anybody try driving home from the cottage down Hwy 1 on Sunday? Gridlock!
Dude, there was an accident. Lol
You know that there is now a generational exodus AWAY from density and downtown cores taking place right?
That’s literally what you were seeing. People buying boats and RV’s in record numbers to get AWAY from the city. Traffic jams of Overlanders with rooftop tents, ski boats, fifth wheels, and boler trailers.
The psychic trauma of being trapped in dense neighbourhoods full of diseased fucks who refuse to put masks on will not disappear the day they announce a vaccine.
In fact, it will permeate our culture and actions until everyone who was alive during the pandemic is old or dead.
Hence the reason you don’t just buy a condo. Buy a vacation property too! Diversify.
“Psychopaths are social predators, and like all predators, they are looking for feeding grounds. Wherever you get power, prestige and money, you will find them.”
Vancouver Police to investigate tire marks on LGBT crosswalk as ‘gesture of hate’
LOL!
Looks like the radical left students at Evergreen graduated and got jobs working for the City of Seattle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FH2WeWgcSMk
Ooops, the link above is actually for the Evergreen documentary which is really worth watching. It’s 3 parts.
Here is the actual link:
https://kfiam640.iheart.com/featured/producer-ray-s-blog/content/2020-07-08-city-of-seattle-undoing-your-own-whiteness/
20 net new doesn’t cut it.
LOL
105 sales, technically it is a triple.
I would imagine this would qualify as the market being on fire by the pumpers.
How’s MOI looking?
New
209
Price Change
73
Sold
105
TI: 12411
A message from Xi Jinping
According to TD Economics’ Rishi Sondhi, Canada’s population is seeing its slowest growth since 2015, and immigration has collapsed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s bad news for the country’s housing market.
https://economics.td.com/ca-housing-population
This isn’t a surprise to anybody. The question is when and how quickly immigration comes back.
Why would any responsible person wish immigration to come back?
Embarrassing what it’s come down to. Great Canada cannot create an economy besides relying on immigrants. And local unproductive whores chomping at the bit, begging for it to return.
Because businesses and services here would fail without it.
“Embarrassing what it’s come down to. Great Canada cannot create an economy besides relying on immigrants.”
What’s the alternative? Building pipelines? Lower taxes?
Germany, Japan and South Korea built powerhouse economies without relying on immigration Ponzi schemes.
They managed to do this despite not having natural resources.
Canada is has been incredibly poorly run the past few decades.
LOL, it’s not like Germany is in the EU or anything.
DFO seizes two (more) vessels after alleged illegal fishing on Sunshine Coast
https://www.coastreporter.net/news/local-news/dfo-seizes-two-vessels-after-alleged-illegal-fishing-on-sunshine-coast-1.24167722
>>> what is it with these people? just last month I was reading about something similar…
https://www.coastreporter.net/news/local-news/more-large-fines-for-illegal-fishing-1.24149978
Ironically, working from home might trigger more unemployment long term: https://omny.fm/shows/steele-drex/working-on-the-west-coast-working-from-home-and-th
Somebody on Twitter seems to be on an awfully bad mood today. But it surely can’t be the Supreme Court’s decision because he has nothing to hide and therefore nothing to fear.
Perhaps he shot an 82?
US slaps sanctions on four China officials over abuse of Uighurs
Those sanctioned over human rights abuses of Uighur Muslims include a member of China’s powerful Politburo.
…and for today’s sob story… 🙁
On July 1, Michelle Wang moved from San Diego to Atlanta to begin her doctorate program in physics at Emory University. Less than a week after she settled into her new apartment, she heard the news: International students will have to leave the U.S. if all their classes are taught online.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/she-just-began-her-doctorate-now-shes-worried-she-could-be-deported.html
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wells-fargo-tightens-mortgage-standards-and-readies-layoffs
Wells Now Demands Clients Who Refi Jumbo Mortgages Have At Least A $1 Million Balance
(Jumbo Mortgage is currently defined as >$484,000 – -not a typo)
Mortgage Market Meltdown: Even The Wealthiest Loan Applicants Are Now Being Turned Down By Lenders
5988 Newton Wynd in the University Endowment Lands was originally listed on November 20, 2018 by Royal Pacific Realty Corp. for $11,280,000. After 590 days on the market, the three-bedroom house sold for $6,500,000 on July 2, 2020.
https://www.straight.com/news/vancouver-luxury-home-takes-35-million-price-cut-to-sell
>>> Dave, just to clarify…would you label this one as a “wash” or a “mild correction”?
Side deal undisclosed.
Also pretty sure nobody on this blog is looking to buy into that market segment.
ok oracle, thanks for clarifying things
Davacle or Whoradave? Lol. His sock puppets are not fooling to many.
LOL “undisclosed side deal” is the Realtor ™ equivalent of “a wizard did it”.
https://imgur.com/gallery/9N8dz
If the property was really worth more, why did it languish on the market for months while being slowly walked down in price — signaling the desperation and cluelessness of the sell side?
When Dave is cornered he doesn’t answer.
Dave’s called it for the last decade. That’s hardly “cornered”.
I tried to be polite by ignoring the question, but since you ask, I consider it to be ridiculous premise. To be clear I am referring to the idea that a $6.5 -$10M luxury property is somehow representative of the broader market. If I were to provide a response, it would provide credence to that idea. Why would you expect me to figure out the reason a property sat for that long? It could be one of a dozen reasons. Maybe it was price. Or maybe it was something else. Who cares? It changes nothing.
Sure sweety
Aww. don’t cry. It’s ok. Everything is changing around poor Dave-acle.
How come we didn’t see those deals on the upside?
what do you think the likes of New Coast, Nu Stream, Metro Edge etc were doing all along?
Pent up demand…to get the hell out
One thing I would do within a millisecond is fire that realtor.
“Royal Pacific Realty Corp” overpriced the shit out of it, then walked it down incrementally like a bunch of cunts.
Reminds me of negotiating with my buddy’s 5 year old.
Picking outliers at the high end and pretending that they’re representative of the wider market is a commonly employed logical fallacy here.
You guys should have learned your lesson by now.
Nobody is pretending anything represents anything. We know that the actual data is a secret in BC, and what is presented as “data” (i.e. the fake statistic of Days On Market) is misleading at best.g
Yes. They are.
It’s a pattern which has been here for literally years.
You’re welcome to browse the archives.
in Vanc proper alone there are hundreds of listings @ $5M+ and I’m sure many of them were previously listed for much higher in years past
And they’re still a tiny fraction of the market.
not in terms of dollar value
Well duh.
Captive in China: Michael Kovrig, the older brother who didn’t come back
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/michael-kovrig-canadian-captive-in-china
