Friday Free-for-all! November 6th 2020

Hello again! Looks like the real hero is PaulB – After a month of this site shut down he’s back posting daily sales stats numbers within a few hours of our return!

So yeah… we’re back.

What are you seeing out there?

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[…] posted a few stories about our changing market and dropping rents as some people move away from city […]

Werner Stein

Forecasts tell you more about who author them, rather than the true direction of the market.
People like Shiller have a good record because his wife is a psychologist and contributes, and he is an Economics Nobel winner.

The forecasts from the three dupes on this blog tell you they are malevolent fools.

Ad Hoc

the three stooges…

southseacompany

“Canada’s Condo Markets Face Perfect Storm As Rental Rates Tank, Costs Jump”, Huffington Post
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/condo-market-canada-real-estate_ca_5fb02736c5b6d05e86e773a3

“Everything that could go wrong with a condo market seems to be happening right now.”

southseacompany

“Canada’s housing squeeze: Buyers who want to move up are being ‘handcuffed’ by their hard-to-sell condos”, Financial Posthttps://financialpost.com/real-estate/canada-housing-squeeze-buyers-moving-up-handcuffed-by-hard-to-sell-condos-2

“A growing cohort of would-be buyers in Canada keen to move up the property ladder are trapped by a flood of condos in the Toronto and Vancouver markets. The situation is only expected to worsen with a near-record number of new condos under construction.”

“The surge in condos for sale is partly driven by investors facing a dearth of renters amid lower immigration, job losses and the evaporation of short-term rental demand due to pandemic-linked travel restrictions.”

“Moody’s Analytics forecasts that Canadian home prices will drop 7 per cent in 2021, with both detached and condos falling.

southseacompany

This real winner in this pandemic has been the public sector. Bigger Government, with safe cushy jobs. No wonder Ottawa leads the country in house price appreciation, up 22% Y/Y.” Steve Saretsky twitter

https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1328378021275787264

southseacompany

“Housing is hot — but for how long?Demand is set to drop during Covid-19’s second wave”, Advisor’s Edgehttps://www.advisor.ca/investments/market-insights/housing-is-hot-but-for-how-long/

Last month, CIBC Economics described housing’s recovery as “mind boggling” considering the recession.”

“Given that the economy isn’t expected to fully recover from Covid-19 until 2022, she said, the housing market is set to face a more challenging environment ahead.

“We do not see the current trajectory of the housing market as being sustainable,” said Katherine Judge, economist at CIBC World Markets, as the second wave of Covid-19 will negatively impact consumer confidence and job security.”

Dave

They didn’t see it the first time either.

Dr. Spock

It’s difficult to predict irrational behaviour, Blake. We live in irrational times.

https://blog.crobox.com/article/the-rational-consumer-debunked

southseacompany

“Rents high but falling in Vancouver as people seek cheaper suburban options: report”, Vancouver Sun
https://vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/rents-high-but-falling-in-vancouver-as-people-seek-cheaper-suburban-options-report

“People are leaving the cores of major cities, including Vancouver, and that has led to some rent drops.”

“The average monthly rent in Vancouver in October for a two-bedroom apartment was the highest in Canada at $2,712, but it was an eight per cent drop from a year earlier, the steepest fall in B.C.”

xhistory

Locked Down

… Is now a brand used by a Canadian grocery store

Extra 25% off if
(a) woman, wearing chastity belt, locked in
(b) man, flash opioid
(c) other, wearing Dr.Sardonicus mask

xhistory

Lockdown®™

paulb

N 277
PC 107
S 75
TI 12656

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

Big bear

2000 new covid cases. Lockdowns are certain now.

JT sucks

High time to shut down realtors open houses.

Dave

Already done.

xhistory

Canadian Mortgage interest rates peaked in August 1981.

Oracle

Minions, if you haven’t figured it out yet…

Stocks at record highs
Bonds at record highs
Housing at record highs
Gold near record highs.
Immigration at record highs.

Those with assets will rule those without.

Already, reports of immigrant families living 2 families per 2 bedroom condo. What happens when the local long time renters have to do this? Because the above situation is going to push rents way above $3000 per 2 bedroom even on the valley.

I warned you long ago of these situations.

Oracle

This is the great reset.

About 50% of families will have the times of their lives.

The other 50% will live in poverty scraping by for rent, food. Car ownership will become out of reach for these people.

Oracle

Will help climate change though LOL. I sure hope you didn’t vote against your own self interests.

Dave

Sadly, this is the truth. The same people calling for this stuff are the same folk that will be permanent members of the social state.

Better to take that free money and buy real assets.

Oracle

BTW, new builds detached on the SMALLEST lots possible in Chilliwack have hit the $1 million mark.

Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL, sure they have Oracle.

I’m looking at a new build right now on a 14000sqft lot for under $750K.

It’s not exactly hard to refute your constant bullshit, so why do you even bother?

Oracle

Hahaha.

Show us. 14,000 sq ft lot. New build.

You can Dave’s help. And Paul Bs help.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Anybody can easily find it on MLS.

Enough of your bullshit, loser.

Shut It Down Already (original)

And there’s even one for $650K on a 15000sqft lot.

The $1 Million line keeps moving East. It’s a bit further each and every week.

I’m looking to buy in the Valley right now. I don’t want to go further than Abbotsford though. I was planning on $800-850k for a rental house. But new on a lot like that might get me out further.

Big bear

Then leave! What are your predictions for outside the valley? 5000$/month for a bachelor in Penticton?

Werner Stein

Promotion and Emotion

How fitting it should be that the two prolific nutbars are true representatives of the RE market.

It is simply propelled by nothing more than hype hence- the shyster.

No logic, no fundamental supports, no reason hence- the emotional cripple.

Spec
southseacompany

“Canada’s major housing markets are slumping—except one”, Real Estate Investment Network
https://reincanada.com/industry_updates/rein-report-canadas-major-housing-markets-are-slumping-except-one/

According to the Real Estate Investment Network’s (REIN) COVID-19 Special Edition: Real Estate Cycle Update reportall major real estate markets in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario are on a steady decline due to the economic impact of the pandemic shutdown and restriction measures—except for one: Ottawa.”

Based on REIN’s Real Estate Cycle Scorecard and Clock, the economic fundamental key drivers and the market influencers indicate Vancouver’s real estate market is in beginning of slump phase.”

Shut It Down Already (original)

Article was from May.

Dishonest.

southseacompany

Correct. It shows up in Google search dated this week. Strange.

Werner Stein

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trudeau-s-plan-to-ramp-up-immigration-falls-flat-with-canadians-1.1518817

Only 17 per cent of respondents say the country should accept more immigrants in 2021 than it did last year, according to a Nanos Research Group poll conducted for Bloomberg News. That suggests most Canadians are less than enthusiastic about aggressive new targets announced last week

Mind you Nanos survey gadgetry is not a reliable as the pumper’s Trafficometer.

Oracle

Who cares what the people think. Over 12,000 streaming in every week. And that doesn’t include the students etc.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Only if you suck at math.

marc

Can a realtor refuse to let you make an appointment to see his listing because you dont have your own realtor?

Dave

Yes

marc

On what basis?

Dave

It’s not your house.

marc

Idiot.

Ad Hoc

Dual agency isn’t legal any more in BC. An agent can’t represent both the buyer and the seller.

Shut It Down Already (original)

You don’t need an agent to represent you if you’re a buyer. But allegedly sellers agents give such buyers the cold shoulder.

Ad Hoc

True, because the seller won’t think the buyer is serious if they don’t have their own agent especially when it doesn’t cost the buyer anything to have their own agent representing them.

Shut It Down Already (original)

The buyer can take half the commission for themselves, so they’re basically denying another realtor some income.

Dave

Ummmm…

Ad Hoc

You are not an idiot…

Werner Stein

The economic distortions are obvious: record debt levels, heavily reliance on non-productive activity, misallocation of resources, debasing currency and destroying purchasing power, money laundering, borrowing demand from the future etc. etc.

Eventually these distortions will result in a crash and the reset will take place.

What is not so apparent and easy to correct, is the social chaos that results from the speculator’s unconscionable activity, and the eventual upheaval.

The backlash will not be manifested by an unruly mob with pitch forks in front of the art gallery.

But If you are a despicable speculator, you will be taxed out of existence.

Only 17% approve of more immigration.

70% want to tax foreign speculators out of business.

Good luck financing political parties to do the dirty work for you.

Shut It Down Already (original)

60% are happy with the current levels of immigration, and in Ontario 80% of the Environics Institute survey participants agreed with the statement “overall, immigration has a positive impact on the economy of Canada.”

Bag it and tag it

60% want immigration to be the same or lower.

Dave

How many want the same or higher?

Shut It Down Already (original)

60%.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Only 35% said immigration levels are too high, sorry.

southseacompany

“Home Prices Are In a Bubble. Full Stop.” Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-13/housing-market-s-p-e-ratio-is-in-the-stratosphere

Rapidly rising housing prices in the U.S. has led to talk of another housing bubble like the one that helped trigger the financial crisis a little more than a decade ago. Consider that the Case-Shiller National Home Price index has gained in excess of 6% per year on average since January 2012, while net rental income has barely kept up with inflation, increasing just less than 2% per year. The result is that home prices seem as overvalued as they were in the spring of 2005, nine months before the peak.”

paulb

N 194
PC 57
S 199
TI 12607

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Werner Stein

“Remember, I’ve been right for 12 years and in all markets directions. Down, up, down, sideways, down and up.”

You are seriously ill.
Think about it; you claim to foretell the future.

Treatment for you would be challenging even for the most seasoned therapist.

Your condition is a complex of pathologies.

A severe case of Borderline Personality Disorder, with Delusions of Grandeur, not easily treatable, but possible.

It must be hell living or working with you, get help.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Predicting the future state of a system isn’t difficult if you have a good model for that system.

Now, learn how to use the reply button, you fucking genius.

Exactly. It’s remarkably easy to make good housing calls. The data is a dead giveaway.

Bag it and tag it

We blew our opportunity to live covid free back in June when our cases were close to zero. If we closed the Alberta border and the airports, we could have lived normal lives. Those returning home would require a covid test before they arrive, then quarantine for 5 days before having another test (this is what they do in Iceland) We could have added Alberta once they were down to zero cases for a week. We should either leave everything open and the responsibility is on each person to protect themselves…or else we go full on lockdown for a few weeks with the goal of zero cases and closed borders.

Shut It Down Already (original)

The goal isn’t zero cases. The goal is preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

DaMann

this is what they keep saying yet we have never had our healthcare system overwhelmed at any point since this started here in BC. Never. Nurses were busy making tiktok videos cause there was nothing to do. Yet they keep adding new rules “cause the numbers”
If the system gets overwhelmed I get it, but it hasn’t been.

Werner Stein

“I’m the one advocating we save lives by having more lockdowns. You’re the killer, not me.”
 
Vicious, and logically flawed.
You cannot have lockdowns, without the conditions and suffering that would precede them.
Thank God your intelligence is not matched by your level of insensitivity and crudeness.
As mentioned, before you have psychopathic tendencies.

Your life must be a mess.
 

NS Baker

Lockdown kills more people than COVID ever could! Frankly, COVID is just a new and slightly more serious version of flu but governments around the world are using it to grab more power. Never let an opportunity for oppression go to waste. More people die from regular flu than COVID!

Shut It Down Already (original)

Oh, great, another idiot conspiracy theorist. Just what this place needed.

Wear a mask, bozo.

AngloMan

you are an idiot! I am an ICU nurse. You are very very wrong!

Ad Hoc

Salesmen rank #3 or #4 on the list of professions that attract psychopaths. CEO’s rank #1.

Shut It Down Already (original)

The most effective lockdowns would preemptive, not reactive.

Dave

It was a sarcastic joke you silly fool. I’ve been consistently against lockdowns if you’ve followed along here. My life is the opposite of a mess. I’ve done great this year, hence the joke… these lockdowns are terrible for some and great for others.

In all honesty and with great humility trust me when I tell you that my intelligence is top tier. How many billionaires called you in the last hour?

Remember, I’ve been right for 12 years and in all markets directions. Down, up, down, sideways, down and up. It’s all here for you to see. I’ve called the markets too, even showed you what I’ve bought. What have you called right? Your record is worse than a broken clock and that’s pretty damn hard to do.

Ad Hoc

Millionaires aren’t good enough any more?

Werner Stein

 
“I’m all for another lockdown. The last six months have been the most profitable six months of my life.
 How about three more lockdowns, more money printing and negative rates?
  Yes please.”
 

You cannot make this up.

What deranged, wretched and unconscionable low life, would rejoice at the prospect of innocent and most vulnerable people suffering more than they already have.
Sick, disturbing, immoral, and disgusting to think this way, equally offensive is bragging about it.

Get spiritual and mental help.
You are depraved.

Dave

I’m the one advocating we save lives by having more lockdowns. You’re the killer, not me.

Ad Hoc

Good on you for making money off of other people’s misery.

Dave

I’m not adding either of you to my bubble.

Ad Hoc

You mean your real estate bubble ?

Shut It Down Already (original)

We’ve not even had one lockdown yet.