BC, data, supply

Metro Home Sales Hit 5-Year High

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457 Comments

With more people staying home all the time it seems that the demand for homes is up. The REBGV reports than last month saw sales almost a quarter higher than the 10 year average and a record high for the last 5 years.

“Homebuyer demand has been at near record levels in our region since the summer,” said REBGV chairwoman Colette Gerber.

Sales were up 22.7 per cent from the 2,498 sales recorded in November 2019, but down sharply, 16.9 per cent, from the 3,687 homes sold in October 2020.

Read the full article over at the Vancouver Sun.

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Werner Stein

When the wealth effect from a broken RE market is exhausted all that remains is the hangover and the distortions.

High cost of living, is detrimental to the economy.
The social costs equally, if not more destructive.

The specuvestors will be the scapegoats, and will eventually go broke hanging on to the past.
 

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southseacompany

“The Central Bankers End Game – Interview with Keith Dicker” Steve Saretsky
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvWeJeUaGLI

“In this video I interview Ice Cap Asset Manager, Keith Dicker. We discuss the global debt bubble, the end game for central bankers, and more importantly what this means for Canadian Real Estate, the bond market, and what policy makers like the Bank of Canada will do.

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paulb

N 102
PC 38
S 149
TI 10551

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

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Werner Stein

“As they go back to work, you’ll see vacancies fall.”

Where are these people living now?

And given they do not have great earnings potential, how much rent cant they really afford as rents cannot be amortized nor subsidized by savers?

I sure hope they do not become pressure groups at your expense.

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Werner Stein

Pumper says”
” [new ]jobs take a long time to create and a return to full employment is years and years out, maybe 5 years.”

What happened to your BOOM BOOM forecast?

Trafficometer needs calibration?

However, the contradiction is not surprising.

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Dave

Not a contradiction if you have been paying attention. I expected a quick bounce but not a return to full employment. At the time, I was more optimistic than pretty much anybody I read at the time and my expectations came true. I never said we’d be back to full employment again quickly. A lot of people that lost jobs don’t have the training or skillset to take on new jobs. It takes time for those workers to get pulled into the economy and climb the wage ladder. This demographic aren’t homebuyers so they don’t really impact the real estate market other than through rent. As they go back to work, you’ll see vacancies fall.

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Big Bear

Wait a sec. You said that Covid was a nothingburger last March.

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Dave

Ya, I nailed that prediction. I was far more optimistic than anybody you would have read at the time.

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Oracle

News on I CBC rates.

Horgan applied for a 15% reduction for basic. No reduction in optional. But No fault also means no one can sue thus foreign student rates go way down.

Result:

$150 savings for average driver with 10+ years experience based on $2000 policy.

The big winners? Foreign students. Theirs is going down by $1500. J P spoke and gotta keep those cars sales up.

Hahaha. Enjoy.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

More dumb Oracle lies.

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Dave

Good news for me since I insure 5 different vehicles.

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Ad Hoc

Those sugar babies can get expensive.

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Dave

Perhaps. But it’s also a motivating factor to make more money. So maybe I get a good return on those investments beyond the immediate benefits.

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Ad Hoc

Fed will keep buying bonds until there is ‘substantial progress’ in inflation, labor market goals
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-will-keep-buying-bonds-until-there-is-substantial-progress-in-inflation-labor-market-goals-11608145485?mod=mw_latestnews

Fed officials said again they expect to leave interest rates pinned near zero through the end of 2023

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southseacompany

“What could happen to interest rates and the loonie if Canadians unleash their savings”< Financial Post
https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-what-might-happen-to-interest-rates-and-the-loonie-if-canadians-unleash-their-savings?r

“‘Bank of Canada could start raising interest rates before many other advanced-economy central banks'”

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Shut It Down Already (original)

The extra saved is only about $5000 per person (including children) on average. Barely enough for an emergency fund. Will most idiots blow it on a glitzy vacation in 2021 or have they learned their lesson? I think we already know the answer….

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Dave

They’re not touching rates for a few years, regardless of how spending goes. The initial recovery and bounce back to somewhat normal was quick, but incrementally, new jobs take a long time to create and a return to full employment is years and years out, maybe 5 years.

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Werner Stein

https://cullencommission.ca/files/reports/CullenCommission-InterimReport.pdf

Starting page 42 is what would interest the pumpers

Interim Report

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southseacompany

“House prices rising is a worrying trend – the higher the Government pumps them up, the bigger a fall could be”, iNewsUK
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/house-prices-uk-rising-worrying-trends-government-higher-bigger-fall-786789

“Government policy has actively overlooked the fact that state investment in public housebuilding could have been part of our economic recovery in favour of measures which have inflated the housing market. “Our housing in Britain is mostly delivered by the private sector – developers do not have an incentive to increase the supply of housing to the extent that it is required because that would bring down prices and, therefore, their profits,” he explains. “What we have not seen during this crisis is a commitment from the Government to roll out a major public sector home building programme which could potentially reduce prices if it was on a big enough scale.”

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paulb

N 126
PC 26
S 155
TI 10792

The Bears in North Van still not asleep for this holidays. Don’t let this scare you off of the Shore 😉 http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

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southseacompany

“Conference Board: Massive deficits, weak public spending, slow economic growth for Canada in 2021”, MortgageBrokerNews.com
https://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/conference-board-massive-deficits-weak-public-spending-slow-economic-growth-for-canada-in-2021-336262.aspx

“According to the Conference Board of Canada there is a growing risk that Canada’s economic recovery from COVID-19’s nine-month assault is stalling. A vaccine will be coursing through the veins of several thousand Canadians over the next several weeks, but the Board said that most industries will not return to their pre-pandemic economic activity “until a vaccine is available to the public, both in Canada and globally.”

“The Conference Board expects Canada’s overall, real GDP to shrink by 6.6% in 2020, with projected gains of 5.6% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022 being insufficient “to bring Canada’s economy back to full potential.” Unemployment is expected to remain above 2019 levels through the end of 2023.”

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Ad Hoc

Home prices to rise more than 9% in 2020, Canadian Real Estate Association forecasts
https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/12/15/home-prices-to-rise-more-than-9-in-2020-canadian-real-estate-association-forecasts/

The Canadian Real Estate Association expects the national average home price will rise 9.1 per cent to $620,400 in 2021, in one of the most optimistic forecasts yet for the real estate sector.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

A headwind for the average price is the sales mix changing in favour or more condo sales, just as the unpopularity of condos was a tailwind recently.

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Ad Hoc

Rental rates going up in Vancouver in early 2021: research
https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/12/15/vancouver-rental-rates-2021/

According to research from Rentals.ca, it’s predicting rates will start going back up by the spring or early summer of 2021.

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Dave

Duh… lots of rental inflation coming as we go back to normal.

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Zombie

Maybe I was charging two little before but my basement suite rent went from $2200 a month to $2700 a month when I rented it during the pandemic in July.

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Oracle

Basically renters are screwed unless they can put down 50% down on something.

The majority doesn’t care what happens to them.

The renters most lost are those banking on rent increases that match inflation forever. Do they really think they can stick to one rental spot for life?

Unfortunately for them, they’ve been priced out of the middle class let alone a home.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

Rents are a function of incomes, are not subject to speculation, and credit availability does not come into play. Landlords cannot simply charge whatever they want to cover their mortgage; there has to be a renter who is willing and able to pay.

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Dave

It’s a function of supply and demand. The problem for renters is limited supply as evidenced by extremely low vacancies pre Covid. And we’re growing by another North Vancouver per year. So it means rental inflation is pretty much a given and that’s the reason so many developers are now building purpose built rentals. Most are expecting faster than inflation rental rate growth.

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southseacompany

“COVID-19 has made reading next year’s real estate market harder than ever”, CBC https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/covid-real-estate-market-1.5838528 “Economist Moshe Lander worries the pandemic could signal a demographic turning point in the market.”No matter how much immigration we have, there’s not enough incoming demand for housing in whatever form,” said Lander, citing Canada’s aging population and low birth rate. “It’s just not the great investment that it used to be.”” “He warns that today’s attractive interest rates may end up having a distorting effect because there is no way they can last over the life of the mortgage.”Home-buyers could find themselves very quickly sitting in a situation where the real value of their debt hasn’t been eroded by inflation and they are now facing higher interest rates with very little equity built up in the home, especially if house prices don’t rise the way… Read more »

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southseacompany

“Bank Of Canada Says It Won’t Fight Rising House Prices ― That’s Ottawa’s Job”, Huffington Posthttps://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/bank-of-canada-house-prices_ca_5f7f37b7c5b664e5baba8b85

“The Bank of Canada is aware that its emergency pandemic policies are inflating house prices, and it’s going to keep an eye on the country’s heavily indebted households, but in a speech Thursday, its governor made clear he plans to do nothing about it. In essence, Tiff Macklem has said it’s the federal government’s job to worry about that, not the central Bank’s.”

“If too many Canadian households start to become dangerously over-leveraged, policy-makers have several macroprudential tools they can use. Our experience with the mortgage-interest stress test shows how effective these tools can be.” In this case, the term “macroprudential tools” means government regulation ― things like mortgage insurance, foreign buyers’ taxes or empty-home taxes or, as Macklem mentioned, the mortgage stress test.”

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Pierdolic

“But when it comes time for action, the Bank’s message will be “Over to you, Mr. Trudeau.”’

So what macroprudential tools does The Turd use? None, instead, he makes it easier to buy homes.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7505956/first-time-home-buyer-incentive-vancouver-victoria-toronto/

F–kwadd.

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Zombie

If he makes it harder to buy a house, it will be harder for you to buy a house. And you won’t like that either.

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southseacompany

“Booming house prices spell more trouble for the social contract”, The Economisthttps://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/03/booming-house-prices-spell-more-trouble-for-the-social-contract “In the 2010s politicians failed to get to grips with high house prices. They often responded to them by further subsidising home-buying. They should indeed cut stamp duty, which distorts the market, as much as possible. But it is futile to fight long-term price rises caused by low rates and shifts in households’ preferences. Rather, governments should cease to indulge national obsessions with owning property.” “That means creating a well-regulated rental sector which offers security of tenancy, removing subsidies for owner-occupation and easing planning restrictions to the point where housing no longer looks like a magic money tree accessible only to those fortunate enough to start out with pots of cash. Taxes on property values—and ideally on land values—should also rise. Such levies are an efficient way of… Read more »

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MVCA

FYI: I am going radio-silent for the rest of 2020. I thought 2017 was the worst year of my life. Then came 2018 and that was the worst year. Then 2019 topped 2018. Then 2020 was just off the charts a terrible year. So every time I think what a terrible year and I can’t wait for the new year, the new year turns out even worse. So I am bracing for what is coming down the pipe in 2021. And I am scared. But I am trying to find my resolve. I love to interact online and debate, but I cannot do it for the rest of the year. I am going inside myself to reflect and I won’t have anything more to say for a long time. I might never have anything to say again. I might stay… Read more »

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Dave

Buy your mom a phone. Make solving that your remaining issue of 2020.

I know you don’t want to hear it, but perspective is everything. I can almost guarantee that your 2020 didn’t have as much tragedy as mine. Mine has been a complete an utter shit show personally. But the glass for me is still more than half full. Business and real estate has been fantastic. Win some, lose some. Best of times, worst of times. My head is held high and 2021 is going to be another great year. And if more tragedy strikes, it can go fuck itself because nothing will get me down.

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Werner Stein

Noose tightening very slowly, but surely.

https://thinkpol.ca/2020/11/30/canada-to-tax-foreign-homeowners/

“To limit the housing speculation that can drive up home prices, we will also put in place a consistent national tax on vacant residential properties owned by non-Canadians who don’t live in Canada,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party promised voters. “And we will work with interested provinces,territories and communities to establish a national approach to beneficial ownership so that law enforcement and tax authorities have the tools necessary to crack down on financial crime inthe real estate sector, while respecting Canadian privacy rights.”

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Werner Stein

Insurance agents obstructed justice by coaching investor to lie to regulators, BCSC panel finds

“As a result of their conduct, the panel found that both Wang and Zhang concealed or withheld, or attempted to conceal or withhold, information reasonably required for an investigation under the Securities Act.”

https://thinkpol.ca/2020/12/11/insurance-agents-obstructed-justice-by-coaching-investor-to-lie-to-regulators-bcsc-panel-finds/

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Ad Hoc

Bank of Canada may lower their overnight rate again. Currently .25% maybe down to the .10% to .15% range. Said they won’t go into negative territory (sure…) I can’t find the link but it was from the weekend.

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Werner Stein

“As long as these minions can be brainwashed into accepting their lot in life, we are a good!”

That is the point “as long as”.

The bubble remains intact until a change in mind set.

But subject to change without notice, and cannot be predicted by a spreadsheet, Trafficometer, or the velocity of “equity flow”

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Dave

If you think building more supply isn’t going to help housing prices, you just might be in that 30%.

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Spec

Missing Middle

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/12/14/Vancouver-Missing-Middle-Housing-Mystery/

“You’ve probably seen those postcard pictures of Vancouver, the ones with glassy towers, a pristine shoreline and sublime mountains. But this skyscraper vision of the city represents less than one-fifth of the reality.

The rest? Dominated by houses, houses, houses. As Uytae Lee puts it, “it’s either Super Size or Happy Meal.”
Lee is an urban planning grad and video whiz who’s made explainers for the CBC and his own label, About Here. He teamed up with Vancouver non-profit Urbanarium for his latest production The Missing Middle Mystery.
Tyee writers, me included, have attempted to answer why the planning ethos here is literally go big or go home: huge towers, or single-family housing. But for a comprehensive walkthrough of how Vancouver got to a “Titanic versus rowboats” style of building and design, Lee delivers.”

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MVCA

The redevelopment of the Little Mountain Housing Project is a prime example of the misguided policies that led to Vancouver’s “missing middle”. The housing project was sold off and the families and seniors living there displaced in order for the provincial government to raise money for supportive housing for street-involved drug addicts on the Downtown Eastside in the lead up to the 2010 Olympics. Contrary to popular opinion, many of the Little Mountain tenants were middle class — as was the case with public housing in general when it was first set up. It’s just that over the decades most projects lost their middle class residents. Little Mountain was really unusual in that it still had a significant presence of middle class households going back to when the project first opened. Thomas Thomson’s master’s thesis entitled The Death and Life… Read more »

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MVCA

And the events surrounding Little Mountain redevelopment are all the more resonant today as Vancouver City Council is contemplating yet ANOTHER Olympc bid, this time for 2030. Little Mountain demolished to build 2010 Olympic legacy supportive housing for addicts and promised to be rebuilt by 2010. Now in 2020, it’s still not rebuilt. Social polarization, drug addictions, social ills, all way worse than 10 years ago and our leaders, still not finished cleaning up the mess from 2010, are wanting to host another one of these Olympic gong shows in 2030. NO. And CBC can censor me all they want. It’s not going to happen.

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MVCA

Uytae Lee is 10 years behind. This was written in 2010: One of the unfortunate results of this uneven geography of activism may be a city that becomes increasingly socially polarized. While Downtown Eastside activists have been very effective at lobbying for supportive housing, the supply of social housing for non-addicted low-income families is shrinking. With the major investments currently underway at the 14 supportive housing sites, the City of Vancouver and even the provincial government are demonstrating that going forward there is going to be a place in Vancouver for our most vulnerable citizens…Given all the anticipated development, I am afraid that the poor in South Vancouver are going to be pushed out of the city and that activists in the Downtown Eastside are not going to be able to lobby effectively for the interests of the poor in… Read more »

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Dave

Little Mountain was a massive waste of prime real estate. The only fault in selling it was picking the wrong party who wasn’t able to break ground by now.

I had a skim of the thesis. You can’t claim this was a success without recognizing that the best real estate in the World was thrown in for free. That’s not a model that can be replicated for obvious reasons.

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MVCA

There was no free real estate. Nothing is free. No such thing as a free lunch. Little Mountain was paid for with the tenants’ rents. Letting land sit vacant for a decade is a waste of prime real estate.

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Dave

You couldn’t build a Little Mountain anywhere in the Lower Mainland and have it paid for with rent. That’s the massive elephant in the room. The discussion and thesis ends there. It’s a history paper at best and a poor one at that.

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MVCA

Thomson just absolutely crushed the mainstream narrative in his thesis. It doesn’t hold up at all. The horror show that Vancouver has become was entirely predictable to him years and years ago. People should have listened.

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Werner Stein

“Are you going to tell them, you took that free money and made the family name generationally rich, or will you tell that you sat back out of fear that the party would end?”

The framework around this fantasy consists of:

-Another 2000 BPS drop in interest rates
-The Hillbilly Party of BC regaining power.
-The Chinese criminals controlling the cabinet.
-Money laundering findings suppressed.
-FINTRAC defunded

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Oracle

Lol

Retail spending is hitting record levels.

70% of the population is loving it and are going to vote Trudeau in again. They are living da life! House prices up. Basement suite income up. Further away from renters so social status!!!

30% are paying for it. As long as these minions can be brainwashed into accepting their lot in life, we are a good!

Hahaha

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Angus Burger

Turd Tracker’s been dancing around 50/50 for the last 10 months.

http://angusreid.org/trudeau-tracker/

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paulb

N 152
PC 50
S 76
TI 10856

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

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Oracle

Holy moly. FOMO gonna happen in townhomes in spring.

Detached already up $400K during pandemic.

Expect townhomes to hit $8-900K in Surrey

$700 in Abby

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