Some landlords packing up and leaving town

For the first time in history more people left BC than moved here during the first half of this year. That’s had an impact on rents and caused some major landlords to rethink their investments, putting large rental blocks up for sale.

Link from Southseacompany:

“With immigration to B.C. hitting negative levels – more people left the province for other regions than arrived in 2020’s first half for the first time in history – Vancouver rents are declining while insurance premiums for apartment buildings have increased an average of 75%, property taxes have soared and capitalization rates have flatlined in the sub-3% range. This has resulted “in a dampening of enthusiasm to invest in the province’s biggest city,” according to Avison Young”

Read the full article here.

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Shut It Down Already (original)

1.35% 5yr fixed available on ratespy.

Ooof.

MVCA

Dave aka SIDA sure know how to make a fool of himself on this blog. Good work Ad Hoc. That was awesome!

southseacompany

“How long can interest rates stay low once a vaccine arrives?”, CBC News
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/vaccine-markets-interest-rates-1.5795620

“There is another group for whom good news is often bad news: borrowers. As Canadian mortgage holders and prospective home buyers will have noticed over the past decade, bad news has been good for interest rates. Good news has the opposite effect.”

southseacompany

“‘Toronto home prices fall from record as condo market goes cold”, BNN Bloomberg
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/toronto-home-prices-fall-from-record-high-as-condo-market-goes-cold-1.1530951

Dave

If interest rates were guaranteed to be 0% for 25 years, how would the market value a single family home in Vancouver?

Big bear

Then the currency will be peanuts if that were to happen. Still better not buying.

Dave

You misunderstood the question.

Werner Stein

Asking for a friend……..
Again

Not entirely sure if it could be explained by psychology which asserts that human perception is badly flawed and therefore not infallible, and if socialization creates biases not based on facts.

But my friend has confessed to me that when she sees headlines relating to some RE transaction gone bad, or a major law suit she anticipates that the names that follow are Asian.

When a clip is shown of somebody handing over a hockey bag of money to be laundered, although the characters are not shown in high definition, she tells me she tends to fill in the details and pictures an Asian person.

Human frailty, social biases?

Please help
again.

Dave

Asked and answered.

Ad Hoc

It seems there really is no honor among thieves.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Dipshit, the article refers to events years ago.

paulb

N 148
PC 44
S 177
TI 19059

http://www.instagram.com/clivestevepaul

Dave

Can’t hit 20k like I said, not even in error.

paulb

Oops TI 11344

Werner Stein

Ad Hoc
“I think they both need help.”

Yes, the good news is that with all “their” money, good therapy should not be a problem.

Werner Stein

I am a poor parking lot attendant with free WI-FI and lots of spare time between patrons, and I do not have as much time as they do.

One has to wonder how these two land barons find the time to post so much.
Although I do suspect it is one sick delusional person, who needs help.

Dave

A couple weeks ago, I was talking with a rich guy about real estate on a Friday afternoon and ended the call by saying have a good weekend. He inadvertently laughed when I said that, but quickly changed tone and said you too. Why? Because he doesn’t work a 9 to 5 job. He wasn’t taking a ‘weekend’ the way most of us use that phrase. Think likewise for me. Ask yourself, why do you think I have time? Ask yourself, why I drop knowledge here and bring the insider scoop? Ask yourself, why when challenged I bought 6 figures of stock within minutes of the market being opened and provided proof of it? Let’s play your fantasy out… here’s a guy for ten years has called everything correct, more or less. Here’s a guy that drops insider knowledge like… Read more »

Ad Hoc

We are so blessed to have you present your wisdom and insight here for all 5 of us to read… and your fantasy stories are entertaining.

MVCA

This is what Narcissistic Personality Disorder sounds like. I’ve got loads of free time on my hands too. I could spend all day posting comments on VCI. In fact, there have been days when I have. I just don’t brag about it.

I have had a hard life but I am blessed to have a brain and the time needed to process what is going on today in these tumultuous times. I am entitled to reflect upon and write about our society because I have earned it by getting a master’s degree after growing up in extreme poverty and dysfunction. I recognize my privileges and this is my biggest privilege.

Dave

That’s what success sounds like.

Ad Hoc

I think they both need help.

Werner Stein

Ad Hoc:
“I’m beginning to think that Dave and SIDA are the same person. I’m seeing some underlying patterns to their messages. It looks suspicious.”

It does look suspicious.

The pathology seems consistent.

Dave

Interesting that the first two letters in my name match the last two of his/mine. But let’s be honest with everybody now… I’m also you.

Ad Hoc

And did you see how triggered “they” both got as soon as I brought that up?

Ad Hoc

I’m beginning to think that Dave and SIDA are the same person. I’m seeing some underlying patterns to their messages. It looks suspicious.

Dave

Your paranoia makes me think you’re really Make Vancouver Canadian Again.

Ad Hoc

no paranoia just an observation. and I think I’m right on this.

Shut It Down Already (original)

You think you’re right on everything. Yet you demonstrate time and time again that you’re simply clueless.

Ad Hoc

No, not right on everything, but likely right on this.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Right. It’s that improbable that two people could disagree with you. Give your head a shake.

Ad Hoc

Two people with the same meme.

Shut It Down Already (original)

If it makes you feel better by calling a simple mathematical consequence of the numbers you only learned a week ago a “meme”, then go right ahead. You clearly need this.

Dave

What meme was it that he caught us as being the same person?

Shut It Down Already (original)

I suspect it’s the fact that you can buy a negative cash flow property without it suddenly becoming a bad deal, providing you plan to hold long term.

…. which leads me to believe that he’s still in denial.

Dave

It’s just a fact. I take my time to explain it so that people can understand the market. It reconciles that the ratio of cash flow to equity has shifted substantially with these lower rates. While most buyers don’t think of it in those terms (i.e. equity flow), they are doing the math because they can read a mortgage table. They look forward at their financial situation in five years and the mortgage tables show that prices make a lot of sense at these rates. You wouldn’t notice that a shift occurred unless you dig into the numbers or deal with this stuff day in and day out. Let’s say you were looking at a house that rents for $3,000 a month and your mortgage payment for that would be $5,000. Bears would jump up and down swearing this means… Read more »

Dave

And I’ll drop a thought experiment for some of you… let’s say that interest rates were guaranteed to be 0% for 25 years. How would the market value a single family home?

Shut It Down Already (original)

Don’t ask them to do math. It’s not fair.

MVCA

SIDA and Dave are one and the same. It sure would explain a lot. Whoever VCI Admin is, they sure don’t like comments speculating on their identity. But comments speculating on my identity have been allowed for years. And when I defend myself, my comments will be deleted. Then I will get pissed off and write something bitchy, which will stay up for a period of time and then everyone will say, see you deserve to be censored. For the entire summer of 2018, this blog insisted that Oracle and I are the same person just because we both said Wow Just Wow. I mean wow just wow!!!

MVCA

You are beyond the pale, with your censorship, retroactive deleting of comments, and personal attacks that I am prevented from defending against.

Dave

I’m pretty much the only one to defend you, and yet you attack me.

You sure you aren’t ad hoc and don’t know because of multiple personality disorder?

Dave

This was a good prediction too (from early April):

When oil fell in 2014, a lot of Alberta workers came back to BC and a lot ended up in Kelowna. That coincides with the last run-up in prices. Kelowna is the fastest growing (by percent) city in Canada! Prices are still affordable and money just got super cheap. 

Watch!

Dave

Now let’s compare my predictions to ad hoc, who said in early April:

“the pandemic will cause an initial deep recession leading to sharp decline in home sales,
sales have since dropped off sharply
Signs of trouble are already appearing in Metro Vancouver,
sales volumes for April down about 70 per cent from last year,
banks have actually hiked rates on fixed-term mortgages.
people that won’t be able to afford their mortgage payments after this pandemic and after that six-month deferral program,
some people are going to have to sell
and after all of that then comes their comical summary:
There’s not going to be a buying opportunity. It’s going to be a patient time as the market returns to normal”

Shut It Down Already (original)

I’m tempted by Kelowna, but more likely one of the nearby towns/burbs. These days the downtown area of Kelowna seems to be almost as hostile as Gastown, unfortunately. I’m just not yet familiar enough with the surrounding hoods (Rutland and the like) to be brave enough to take the plunge.

Dave

I like the surrounding area more, which is where I have a place. Look south IMO… Peachland, Summerland or Penticton.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Yeah, the destination spots definitely have their own appeal.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Nobody posted this yet? Weird.

“Home sales in Metro Vancouver hit a five-year high in November with more than 3,064 residential units swapping hands last month.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver says it’s the first time home sales have eclipsed the 3,000 mark since November 2015.”

Must be due to all those foreigners arriving daily, LOL.

Ad Hoc

The foreigners are already here and doing what they do.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Except all the data we have shows otherwise, LOL.

Dave

Remember how “humorous” it was for a couple of these idiots when I talked about pent up demand last Spring? Who’s laughing now?

Ad Hoc

“Who’s laughing now”?

OK I give up. Who?

Dave

This is what I said just into Covid:

Iron yours shirts, fuel up your car and start setting your alarm because we’re all heading back to work in about a month. The warm weather is here and this virus will be gone until November, at which time we have it sorted out before it can strike again. I suspect June is going to be a busy real estate month. A lot of demand is building up and by [November] people will see it as a big nothing that only affects the nearly dead. No chance inventory builds up to 20k by the summer listings peak. By the Fall, the foreign student immigration loophole will be fully functional again.

Ad Hoc

I don’t see 12,000+ Canadian dead as “a big nothing”. And I’m still working from home.

Dave

That’s virtue signalling talking. Deep down you think it’s a big nothing like most people. That’s not to say people don’t care and don’t want to take precautions to keep cases down. But pretty much nobody is living in fear the way they did when I wrote that. Back then, people were stockpiling toilet paper and losing their minds.

Shut It Down Already (original)

It’s definitely not a big nothing. Unfortunately most people like to learn the hard way. Like the dog owner who thinks keeping their pet off-leash is fine, right up until the point it mauls a toddler. “How could I have known?” they’ll whine.

Most Covid deniers change their tune when they themselves get sick.

Werner Stein

Emotional Cripple says:
“There’s insufficient supply and too much demand from people who want to jump on the get rich quick bandwagon.”

Pumper says:
His definition of a bubble is now, it’s hard for some to do? No, all bubbles require speculation. Working families aren’t speculators. That’s sort of an obvious giveaway.

No further comment required.

Dave

You realize we’re different people, right?

Shut It Down Already (original)

He’s too busy trying to sound clever to actually read or attempt to comprehend.

Ad Hoc

USA Covid death toll: 271,000
Canada Covid death toll: 12,000+
World Covid death toll: 1.48 million

Shut It Down Already (original)

FORE!

Werner Stein

Up to now I thought you were an eccentric racist, trying hard to cover your true essence, but somewhat intelligent- at least more intelligent than the pumper.

Now I realize you also have faulty logic.

Your own slant:
“as families struggle to get a foot in the door?”

Are you now suggesting that families struggle to get a foot in the door?

That is an illogical/contradictory statement following your constant assertion that the market is not in a bubble.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Of course they do. But that doesn’t contradict the fact that properties are priced not far from fair value. There’s insufficient supply and too much demand from people who want to jump on the get rich quick bandwagon.

Do try and stop embarrassing yourself, genius.

Dave

That was embarrassing on his part. His definition of a bubble is now, it’s hard for some to do? No, all bubbles require speculation. Working families aren’t speculators. That’s sort of an obvious giveaway.

Werner Stein

[ is ]“unfair”?

Letting criminals wash dirty money through real estate, subsidizing speculation with interest that should have been paid to savers, displacing seniors, foisting hardships on families, distorting the economy is what is unfair.

But these are aspects of a wider issue you cannot understand.

Stick to the basic functions of the excel sheet, it more in keeping with your intellect’s ability.

Shut It Down Already (original)

Displacing seniors?

By allowing them to defer property taxes indefinitely while occupying a home 4x larger than they actually require, as families struggle to get a foot in the door?

You’ve literally no clue what you’re talking about. As usual.

Werner Stein

“But don’t worry – we’ll all get a turn.”
Oh wow, the Excel Sheet man opines poetic about justice.

As if the state of affairs have been fair and ethical.

Shut It Down Already (original)

I suppose you think that missing out on substantial gains because you misidentified a bubble and chose to sit on the sidelines is “unfair”?

southseacompany

“Federal government to create new national foreign home buyers’ tax”, Daily Hive
https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/national-business/government-plans-foreign-buyers-tax-in-bid-to-create-affordable-housing-3145217

There are plans to introduce a new national tax that targets foreign homeowners who are non-residents and own property for speculative reasons.”

Shut It Down Already (original)

Of course. We’re almost $400bn in the hole. There are going to be a shocking number of new taxes introduced over the coming years and the first targets will naturally be those who cannot vote.

But don’t worry – we’ll all get a turn.

MVCA

I support this. I also voted for Trudeau once. On Rebel News, they call me a Communist. On VCI, they call me a social Darwinist and proponent of eugenics and make me feel like I am the second coming of Hitler.

paulb

N 200
PC 41
S 180
TI 11534

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL

Dave

Beyond my bullish expectations. If I’ve ever been wrong about anything, it’s that I haven’t been bullish enough.

Stagnate

This isn’t big news boys, sure landlords are a bit cranky about the insurance thing, and some are stuck with rent strike clowns. Mortgage rate drops have been dramatic though. And what’s the alternative? Everything else is currently expensive or low yield. Can always count on the ndp for population outflows, ha ha. Nonetheless can assume the feds will open the floodgates and a lot will come here. Again lack of alternatives, is it any better anywhere else? Their communities are here

Dave

Exactly. Obviously population growth and immigration will resume, the only question is how quickly we get back to the previous rate. Are we going to see a spike in 2021 making up for lost numbers in 2020, or will it be muted? My inclination is the numbers quickly resume by Summer. We could get a short term spike but I think we’ll settle back to the usual rate of another North Vancouver per year. Yield chasing is a very real thing. Anything that cash flows predictably has value in the current interest rate environment. Once Covid is done, people start going back to the cities and immigration picks up, you’ll see the condo investor market pick up. This is a classic market disruption and the kind of event that people in hindsight say that was the opportunity to buy. And… Read more »

Ad Hoc

Former BC Liberal minister and RCMP caused ‘tsunami’ of casino money laundering, inquiry hears.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7493127/fred-pinnock-recordings-tsunami-cullen-commission/

WOW! The corruption is incredible! And no one was even bribed (that we know of) to accomplish this.

Stagnate

The governments thought at the time, was the money is out there anyway, let’s get some of it into the regular economy. The inquiry is an unprecedented waste of money with too much lefty sentiment. There is value in being a realist

Ad Hoc

The elected government of BC knowingly allows the laundering of illicit cash which was mostly international drug money and the proceeds of crime that’s being a realist? They may as well have handed out fentanyl laced drugs on the street corner. We were living in a banana republic.

MVCA

We were living in a Banana Republic under the BC Liberals. And I could see that early on. And I was censored by BOTH the Left and the Right. The BC NDP are almost as corrupt. They just have better PR, that’s all.

MVCA

I was on Rich Coleman’s tail in 2007. Which makes the mass deleting of my comments here all the more disgusting. This blog essentially covers for Rich Coleman by constantly censoring me.

southseacompany

“7 things you may have missed in the Fall Economic Statement”, BNN
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/7-things-you-may-have-missed-in-the-fall-economic-statement-1.1529734

“The federal government is making changes to the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive for prospective homeowners in some of Canada’s priciest real estate markets. The changes will allow eligible buyers in Victoria, Vancouver and Toronto to purchase a home worth up to 4.5 times their household income, up from the current cap of four times annual income. It also raises the maximum household income threshold to $150,000 from $120,000, a move the feds say will make first-time buyers in those cities eligible to buy a home for as much as $722,000 from the current $505,000.”

Shut It Down Already (original)

LOL, so dumb.

southseacompany

“Canada’s inflation rate rises in October”, News 1130
https://www.citynews1130.com/2020/11/18/inflation-october/

Canada’s inflation rate rose 0.7 per cent in October from a year earlier, after a 0.5 per cent increase in September, Statistics Canada says.”

‘The jump in October is the sharpest increase since June amid an eight-month spell where monthly readings have been under one per cent.”