All posts by wreckonomics

BC, humor, supply

13,000 listings to kick off 2013. Let’s Party.

82
82 Comments

According to Paulb the listings odometer just rolled over the 13,000 mark.

As of last night the inventory count hit 13,035.

Of course that means it’s time for a party.

Any one think it’s possible that we might hit 14k before the month end expiries kick in?

Crashcow points out that it could happen:

Avg daily inventory growth this month: 125
Projected month-end inventory: 14,406

Although possible doesn’t mean probably.  Historically sales pick up past the halfway point in January according to VHB:

For the quant-minded, some numbers!

period sell list percent
2011Jan1sthalf 70  216 33%
2011Jan2ndhalf 110 260 42%
2012Jan1sthalf 57  271 21%
2012Jan2ndhalf 90  277 32%
2013Jan1sthalf 54  227 24%

So, if this January follows the pattern we can expect about a 50% increase in sales in the 2nd half of the month. This would mean we should average around 80 sales/day in the 2nd half of Jan2013. Listings might tick up a bit, but not by 50%.

 

BC, Canada, data, debt, opinion, predictions, prices

Soft Landing Achieved!

128
128 Comments

Good news! Despite all the fearmongering, gloom and forecasts of dismay for the Canadian housing market we can now happily report that our market has achieved what the US housing bubble could not – A SOFT LANDING!

“Despite the klieg-light focus on the Canadian housing market this year, its performance has been far from exciting,” said Mr. Porter.

“It increasingly looks like most major markets are indeed undergoing a policy-induced correction. But, for now, the landing looks to be soft in most cities (with some cities actually still lifting off), with the rather obvious exception of Vancouver.”

As Mr. Porter added in an interview, “I don’t think you can call what’s going on in Vancouver a soft landing anymore.”

.. A bumpy landing then?

Read the full article over at the Globe and Mail.

BC, data, economy, humor, pictures, prices

Bear vs. Bull in the Battle of Vancouver

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59 Comments

Haven’t you always wanted to see housing market data presented as an exciting battle map?

Somewhat more exciting than your average excel sheet, VMD has started a Battle of Vancouver thread over at Vancouverpeak.com where he’s got maps showing the ups and downs of the market for condos and single family homes.

It’s interesting that you really get a sense of things changing on the periphery first.

There’s a stripe of red in the centre where prices are still up year over year. Here’s the map for Single Family Homes:

There’s a similar thing happening in Condo prices, although more areas are Year over Year negative there.  Oh, and for extra excitement on this map there’s TANKS! (each tank represents a single percent point up or down):

Click here to view the full thread on Vancouverpeak.com

..And if you have stuff to share over there, here are a few more invite codes to register for a user account:

p3k0-icze-u2up
yktv-exfc-01ge
2pss-bm1u-2lhp
fpc5-sef1-42bu
vaw6-smid-p49u
30v5-2sfh-6ozj
xukn-ohyt-qkac
k3oq-6jj9-1de2
9mjt-op5r-1vwp
sknv-ook0-sqpj

prices

Housing Market Stats March 2012

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78 Comments

The official REBGV housing market stats are now out. I’ll link to the version on the Paulb facebook page since he’s been so consistent with providing us the daily stats.

Get the REBGV full stats release here.

The funny thing about stats is that you can take the same data and spin it either way. GVREB has been doing a bang-up job of posting end of the month news releases in the style of the REBGV, but with a reverse spin. These use factual numbers and quotes, but come across quite different in tone from the official news releases. Here’s an archive thread at Vancouverpeak.com with the most recent one.

Get the GVREB news release here.

And some of you pointed out a few surprising stats. It looks like the most desirable areas are showing the most weakness right now.

VMD pointed out the following:

Disaster zones:
– despite Greater Vancouver area having a 12.9% increase in sales in Mar/12 vs Feb/12, the following areas showed Declines in sales MoM.

1. Richmond SFH – down 60% YoY
Y/M Sales %change
12/3 104 n/a
12/2 119 -13%
11/3 262 -60%
2. Van West SFH – down 46% YoY
Y/M Sales %change
12/3 152 n/a
12/2 177 -14%
11/3 279 -46%
3. Burnaby SFH – down 40% YoY
Y/M Sales %change
12/3 95 n/a
12/2 105 -10%
11/3 160 -40%

And Best Place on Meth pointed out the median prices have taken a month over month dive in those areas:

Median detached prices in the 3 bubbliest areas took a hit last month.

Van West: -$245,000 (-10.7%)
Richman: -$72,000 (-7.1%)
West Van: -$70,000 (-3.6%)

Honourable mention to Burnaby: -$27,000 (-3.0%)

Looks like a HAMPLOSION.

Spring is normally when the market swings into gear and sales and prices start to rise. Have these hot areas burnt themselves out?

Uncategorized

TD: Housing correction in one year.

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60 Comments

Good news!  You still have a year to cash out of the housing market before it ‘corrects’.  TD says housing correction coming in 2013.

A correction in Canada’s blistering real estate market is set to take hold in 2013, economists at TD said on Wednesday in a note to clients. The remarks come in the wake of figures released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showing sales of existing homes fell 4.5 percent in January from the previous month.

So.. plenty of time to install that laminate, paint the place up and stage it.

“This month’s decline is likely reflective of what will shape up to be a softer year in sales, especially when it comes to Toronto and Vancouver condos,” Jacques Marcil, Senior Economist at TD, said in a note. “We anticipate growth will slow down in 2012 both in terms of sale volumes (+0.5%) and prices (+2.5%).”

“In contrast, the actual correction is foreseen to start in 2013, with both resales and prices turning negative.”

In recent weeks a number of executives at the country’s largest banks and economists have voiced concerns over high real estate values. The head of the country’s largest seller of uninsured mortgages recently told BNN that certain areas of Canada’s real estate sector are “overheated.”