Vancouver Condo Info

Yes, markets change and so do ‘expert opinions’. And what a difference just a few days can make! Housing markets change at such a glacial pace that they miss out on the exciting daily ups and downs of the stock market, but the flip side is that once they start to slide it can take years for them to hit bottom. You don’t have to look further than our closest neighbor to the south to see an example of this slow downward slide.

This gradual change makes it all the more remarkable that a local housing market ‘expert’ would be singing two different songs within the space of just a few days. Thanks goes to Condohype for pointing the evolving marketview of Cameron Muir:

• “There is no indication, at this point, of any kind of substantial decline in prices,” Cameron Muir, Friday, July 11 2008
• “It is perfectly reasonable to expect home prices will stay fairly flat or even decline a couple of per cent a year until affordability picks up.” Cameron Muir, Tuesday, July 15 2008

Skeptics take heart, because I already know what you’re thinking - its the wonders of vague wording: a couple of per cent does not equal a ’substantial decline’, so this is not a reversal. And maybe you’re right, except there’s this small point: how many years do we have to suffer declines of ‘a couple percent’ until ‘affordability picks up’? Particularly with a global economic slowdown, a local economy coming off a boom and new mortgage rules that require more fiscal responsibility from buyers? Would a sharp shock to the market that quickly restores ‘affordability’ be a worse scenario than 10 years of slow equity leakage?

In June the REBGV benchmark price for a house dropped by about $5500 to $765,654. From that starting point a drop of just ‘a couple percent’ is a loss of more than $15,000 a year. Of course now that these predictions appear to be changing on a weekly or even daily basis, perhaps we’ll be hearing about the next leg up soon.

Thanks again to Condohype for the tippage.

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The CBC is reporting that two Concord Pacific condo towers in downtown Vancouver have developed leaky condo problems requiring millions in repair work. The ‘leaky condo issue‘ is very familiar to Vancouver residents, and apparently still very much a concern.

Governor’s Tower at 388 Drake St has required replacement of all windows, exterior walls and bricks which has cost owners at least $100k per unit:

The cost of repairs to the tower was estimated at $29 million, and each of the 237 condo owners had to fork over at least $118,000, with the cost depending on the size of their apartments, Fox said.

Governor’s Tower was built 14 years ago and the 10-year warranty had expired.

The Parkview Tower at 289 Drake street is the other Concord Pacific tower reported with this issue:

All the windows on the 14-year-old tower were replaced because they leaked, said Alan Cadwell, whose Langley-based company, The Condo Advocate, repaired Parkview Tower.

Cadwell’s company specializes in restoration management for leaky condos in B.C.

“With one good push, the window wall system, in theory, could be kicked out and could be travelling to the floor,” Cadwell said of the condition of the windows.

The cost of the repairs for Parkview Tower amounted to more than $8 million, he said.

Thanks to LaLaLand and Bizznitch for the story tip and link.

UPDATE: In a bit of synchronicity the Vancouver Sun has this article in todays paper: Leaky condo crisis far from over.

By 2012, when the leaky condo era enters its fourth decade, as many as one-third of the defective units will remain unrepaired, said the report, prepared for the province’s Homeowner Protection Office (HPO) by private consultants.

At least 45 per cent and possibly as many as 68 per cent of leaky buildings have not been repaired yet, according to various scenarios explored by the consultants.

…

The consultants made no attempt to estimate the total cost of the damage, but concluded that early estimates of the repair cost per unit - $10,000 to $15,000 - were way low.

“Based on the HPO experience, it would appear that the actual average repair costs are approximately five times or six times higher,” they said.

By last September, repair loans the HPO makes to leaky condo owners had grown to an average of $62,000 for wood-frame apartments, and $72,000 for those in concrete buildings.

Re-diculous posted this link to an article in todays Vancouver Sun about a dramatic drop in consumer confidence in BC.

Consumer confidence in B.C. plunged to its lowest level in five years last month as high energy prices and economic concerns test people’s resolve, the Conference Board of Canada reported Monday.

The board said B.C. consumer confidence fell 9.3 points in June to 94.3 - dropping below 100 for the first time since mid-2003.

The consumer confidence rating across Canada dropped 6.2 points in June to 79.6, following a seven-point drop in May, leaving the second quarter reading at its lowest level since the fourth quarter of 1995 when it was 68.8.

There’s been a lot of buzz in the news about inflation and recession worries lately - could this drop in consumer confidence be blamed on the media?

This is a pass-off post to Paul Boenisch at nvcondos.ca who has just posted some dramatic month-end June stats on his blog.

If you haven’t seen these numbers yet, or if you have any doubt that the Lower Mainland real estate market is undergoing a dramatic shift, check them out now.  Supply continues to grow while sales keep dropping.

Here are a few highlights:

Sales down 41% from June 2007
Inventory up 53% from last year
North Vancouver inventory up 113%

Check out Paul’s blog for all these stats and more graphed out for some dramatic visuals.

So far prices haven’t been impacted much at all, but increasing supply and decreasing demand will put pressure there unless this dramatic shift reverses soon.  Could we be in danger of tracking the US market?

Renewed concern over an old mortgage fraud problem has been in the news lately and that attention has people flooding the title office with calls from homeowners.  Last Friday the Vancouver Sun reported the story of a Retired Richmond man who discovered his house had been sold without his knowledge and a large mortgage taken out on the home:

It’s all part of an elaborate scheme that has surfaced recently in B.C. in which con artists are attempting to sell homes without the owner’s knowledge, leaving the homeowner off the title but with hundreds of thousands in new mortgage debt against the property.

In the latest variation of the scheme in B.C., a would-be seller contacts a notary or lawyer to carry out the sale of a home.

A buyer, who is thought to be in on the deal, applies for a mortgage on the property and if the transfer is successfully carried out, the mortgage funds are paid to the seller. The buyer and seller disappear and so does the money, often leaving the homeowner to discover the ruse only when the bank notices the mortgage payments aren’t being made and comes looking for its money.

While such fraud is not new, title insurance company First Canadian Title said B.C. has seen a jump in suspicious cases this year. And a B.C. Supreme Court decision this month ruled that while a true owner could regain title to a property if it was fraudulently transferred, mortgages taken out on the property — even if fraudulently obtained — still stand.

Unfortunately the only way to discover that you are a victim of this sort of fraud is by checking records with the title office, which has set off this recent flood of calls:

“A lot of people have been wanting information, and the calls are backed up for at least a day,” Ian Smith, director of land titles for British Columbia and registrar in the Land Title and Survey Authority’s New Westminster land title office, said Wednesday. “We had 180 I believe yesterday, and that was just in the New Westminster office.”

Meanwhile, the authority launched an appeal to a recent B.C. Supreme Court decision that ruled that while a title that had been fraudulently transferred should be restored to the rightful owner, a mortgage then taken out against the property would stand. The ruling suggested that the owner of the property could seek compensation from the land title assurance fund.

If you are concerned about this sort of fraud and own your home outright there is a way to protect yourself:

Homeowners who are worried, though, can request a duplicate certificate of indefeasible title, which can only be issued for titles that have no financial charges against them, useful perhaps since the con artists target homes that are mortgage free. New Westminster real estate lawyer Alex Sweezey said strata owners also are not a target because on a condominium sale lawyers also have to deal with the strata management company.

The cost of the duplicate title is $50, but once it has been issued nothing can be registered against the title until it is surrendered to the land title authority. Smith said homeowners can get a form to request the duplicate from the land title office or from most lawyers or notaries. However, if it goes missing, replacing it can be costly and time-consuming, involving affidavits and other requirements.

During this weekends open-topic post ‘tacoman’ noted that someone has started up a Victoria area flippers in trouble blog modeled after the original Sacramento area flippers in trouble and Phoenix flippers in trouble.  These blogs all track drops in asking prices and where available show recent sales activity.

The Victoria area blog isn’t yet showing drops anywhere near as dramatic as the US based blogs are tracking but it will be interesting to see where this goes as the market changes.  On the Sacramento blog the first listing is a house bought in March 2007 for $1,308,000, currently sitting on the market with an asking price of $600k.

Vision Vancouver mayoral candidate Gregor Robertson has proposed that Vancouver implement a speculator tax to deter condo speculation. In this case speculation is defined by the condo unit being left vacant rather than by flipping or simply taking on more debt than you can handle based on the hope of future gains.

Robertson justifies the need for this tax by referring to the BC Hydro grow-op study that found 18,000 vacant condos in Vancouver, which is equal to half the total number of condos in the Downtown Westend. This number is said not to include units that are part-time occupied as second homes or vacation properties, only units that use no electricity through the year.

The obvious difficulty comes in defining the criteria by which condos would be taxed at the business rate. Taxes on speculation are often based on ‘flipping’ rather than holding an empty condo. How do you determine if a condo truly is empty? Would there be penalties for ‘faking’ occupancy? What are your thoughts on this proposal, would it help or hurt the Vancouver housing market?

Good news if you’re looking for recreational property in BC, you’ll find less competition as demand has dropped off and recreational property in areas like the south Okanagan has moved into ‘clear buyer territory’ according to RE/Max:

“The demand for waterfront recreational properties remains strong, but prices have stabilized,” Re/Max regional executive vice-president Elton Ash said in an interview. “That’s good news for consumers because there are fewer multiple offers driving prices higher.”

As well, Ash said, the availability of bargain real estate properties in the U.S. has clearly reduced the number of buyers looking at Canadian recreational properties.

“We see U.S. owners of Canadian properties putting them up for sale now so they can take their profits and reinvest them in the U.S sun belt,” Ash said.

…

While the price of a three-bedroom winterized home on ocean frontage on Saltspring Island starts at about $1.3 million, there are more affordable properties for sale throughout B.C.

The report said the South Okanagan market has moved into “clear buyer territory” for the first time in five years, with rising inventories, falling sales and price corrections underway.

The price of a two-bedroom condo on the water near Penticton now starts at about $400,000, with some developers paying the GST and providing complete appliance packages.

The report noted the North Okanagan recreational property market has also reached a plateau, but affordability remains an issue with a typical three-bedroom winterized home on a 66-foot Okanagan Lake lot starting at $1.5 million.

Does less competition and low interest rates make this the perfect buying opportunity or are ‘price corrections’ due to take a further chunk out of the recreational real estate market?

A cautionary tale in todays Vancouver Sun for those seeking high returns AND security in a real estate investment: Two time real estate loser leaves investors high and dry.

A former bankrupt, Hauff made his first stab at developing the 35-acre residential project on Bullock Lake near Ganges in 1996. To fund the development, he borrowed millions of dollars from Multimetro Mortgage Corp. at up to 20 per cent per annum.

Multimetro, run by Vancouver businessman Ken Megale, raised most of the money from mom-and-pop investors. He promised them extremely high rates of return and assured them it was a safe, fully secured investment.

In fact, the project was mismanaged from start to finish, and ended in foreclosure. Multimetro lenders, who were owed $11 million including accrued interest, lost everything.

… but dreams die hard, so Hauff bought the property back out of foreclosure for $9 million and started all over, this time with money from Calgary based Gibraltar Mortage Corp at a 24% per annum rate.

Like Multimetro, Gibraltar raised the money from many small investors, promising them high returns on a supposedly fully secured basis.

Alas, under Hauff’s stewardship, the project once again stalled. In February 2007, Gibraltar called its loans and David Bowra was appointed receiver.

Subsequently, the resort lodge and spa burned down. The insurer has agreed to pay $7.4 million compensation. The property, as is, is estimated to be worth another $18 million to $20 million. So in total, creditors might realize anywhere from $25 million to $28 million.

Meanwhile, there is about $36 million worth of debt on the property, most of it owed to Gibraltar investors. Interest is accruing at the rate of about $600,000 per month. There are also property taxes and professional fees to be paid. So even on a best-case scenario, creditors are going to take a serious hit.

Read the full article here.

A couple of economic bad news stories posted by Via on this weekends Friday Free-for-all post: The spring selling season so far has us looking at a very different market from previous years. Sales have dropped and inventory has risen dramatically, at the beginning of June we’re looking at close to 18,000 listings for sale in Vancouver. As it becomes harder to sell the number of foreclosures have doubled in the lower mainland:

Kap Hiroti, who tracks Lower Mainland foreclosures at ForeclosureList.ca, says foreclosures stand at 20 per week, up from 10 per week in 2006.

“For one reason or another, they didn’t pay the mortgage, or insurance, or property tax,” says Hiroti, who advises real estate owners looking to foreclose or prospective buyers looking to buy a foreclosed property. “Or they get behind in their strata or condo fees, or face a one-time cost such as a roof or a leaky condo, which might set them back 40, 50 or 60 thousand dollars.”

…

Hiroti believes the Lower Mainland real-estate market has “flatlined,” meaning investors who were counting on making a profit no longer see an upside.

As a result, some have chosen to lose their investments through foreclosure rather than hanging on with no sign of a significant upside return.

“They were kind of speculating that the market would go up, but when the market flatlines, some people just choose to get out. Local people are getting priced out of the market.”

At the same time BCs unemployment rate has been creeping up - the jobless rate is now at 4.5% as positions are lost in trade, transportation and agriculture. The unemployment rate is particularly high for young people at 8.8% and for recent immigrants with an unemployment rate of 9.8%.

The bright point in the jobs data remains construction which has been the key driver in the BC jobs market for the last 5 years. The question is: how long can you have a jobs market driven by construction?