Vancouver Condo Info » BC

House Price Index – start the count over

wreckonomics — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 05:41:43 +0000

Real estate can be tricky to track stats for. There’s so much variation between different properties. Average sales prices get pushed back and forth based on the sales mix.

There are two sources for a more consistent tracking of house prices. One is the Teranet House Price Index, which tracks only properties that have at least 2 sales. This ‘sales pair’ approach tracks the effect of specific properties changing price each time they’re sold. There are two drawbacks to this index: It doesn’t track improvements to a property and it’s delayed by about 3 months.

The other approach is the REBGVs MLSlink HPI based on a hypothetical property that is averaged to specific traits: number of rooms, finished basement etc. The MLSlink HPI has been a consistent gauge of the local market since the mid 90s.

That’s changing now. Vancouver was the only market with a House Price Index, but the old index has been thrown aside for a new one from the CREA that is consistent between Vancouver, Fraser Valley Calgary, Toronto and Montreal.

For data-hounds, this means that you’ll not be able to directly link trends in the new index to earlier data. January 2012 becomes the zero month of this new system. Ladies and gentlenerds, start your graphs!

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The Housing Bottom is There

jesse — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:13:18 +0000

Bill McBride over at CalculatedRisk has a simultaneously chilling and uplifting post on the US housing market:

There have been some recent articles arguing the “housing bottom is nowhere in sight”. That isn’t my view.

First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.

For the economy and jobs, the bottom for housing starts and new home sales is more important than the bottom for prices. However individual homeowners and potential home buyers are naturally more interested in prices. So when we discuss a “bottom” for housing, we need to be clear on what we mean.

For new home sales and housing starts, it appears the bottom is in, and I expect an increase in both starts and sales in 2012…

And it now appears we can look for the bottom in prices. My guess is that nominal house prices, using the national repeat sales indexes and not seasonally adjusted, will bottom in March 2012.

The problem with using the house price indexes to look for a bottom is that they are reported with a significant lag. As an example, the recently released Case-Shiller index was for November and the index is an average of September, October and November – so it is a report for several months ago. The CoreLogic index is a little more current – the recent release was for December, and CoreLogic uses a weighted average for prices (December weighted the most) – but that is still quite a lag.

Both of those indexes will bottom seasonally around March, and then start increasing again.

What planet is McBride on anyways? For many Vancouver is different because it is inconceivable that it’s the same. Inconceivable.

© jesse for Vancouver Condo Info, 2012. | Permalink | 120 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: prices, US real estate, vancouver

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Racist marketing and fact-free media

RTYT — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 08:34:17 +0000

Look at this garbage. It’s an article submitted by “The BC Real Estate Convention” and printed as if it’s actually news in the Vancouver Sun. First off, the writing is atrocious. Don’t they even have an editor read these advertorials before they’re printed? Second, there are lots of statements presented as fact that have absolutely nothing to back them up:

Experts claim that the Chinese Mainland buyers and investors will continue to seek for overseas investment opportunities, in Vancouver.

Which ‘experts’ are these? Oh never mind, we’ll just take your word for it then.

As it is more cost efficient to purchase a property rather than renting, and considering the long term returns of the investment, purchasing properties in Vancouver become high on demand.

Yeah, somebody is ‘high on demand’ if they really believe that current prices in Vancouver make buying ‘more cost efficient’ than renting. There are many many markets around the world where buying is ‘more cost efficient’ than renting, Vancouver ain’t one of them.

However, as much as Feng shui is a well respected practice by many Chinese immigrants and potential home buyers and investors, there are always those “intelligent” ones that seek to obtain the optimal economic value from their investment in Vancouver’s real estate.

Wow. I don’t even know how to respond to that.

If you go to the The BC Real Estate Convention web site you’ll see that this trade show is sponsored by The Vancouver Sun and Province.

Then there’s this piece over at 24 hours:

Metro Vancouver will receive an influx of businessmen from mainland Chinese this week, intent on spending their two-week Lunar New Year holiday with family, as well as scooping up significant amounts of real estate.

Julia Rowell, sales manager at downtown Vancouver’s Maddox development, said this phenomenon has been going on for over 25 years, but 2012 looks to be especially busy.

Yeah? I think TPFKAA says it best:

HAHAHAHAHA! That’s absolutely hilarious!!

So in 1987, (a full five years before Deng Xiaoping’s reforms that enabled creation of individual fortunes) HAM from mainland China was increasing sales just after CNY.

/facepalm.

The hype seems to be working on the listings side. This year started off with the second highest number of listings in the last ten years and has grown at a faster rate than any of those years, especially on the west side:

I’m sure those sellers are hoping this hype pays off, and maybe it will, but then again maybe our market isn’t driven solely by wealthy offshore buyers. Most local first time buyers aren’t in the market for multimillion dollar homes anyways, so how would this even affect them?

Blaming ‘Chinese buyers’ for out of control prices is simplistic and racist. This city is nearly half asian so of course ‘Chinese buyers’ have an impact, but what about easy credit, low rates, CMHC pumping and local speculators?

Just for comparison, the city of Monterey Park in California has the highest percentage population of Chinese Americans of any US municipality. Here’s what home values there look like over the last few years:

This post was submitted by RTYT.

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Carney cries wolf again.. will it come?

wreckonomics — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 08:45:44 +0000

Mark Carney is making new remarks about some Canadian real estate markets being “probably overvalued“.

It was the second time in recent days that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney voiced concern about property prices, which surged after the financial crisis as borrowing costs tumbled.
“We see that in a number of real estate markets in Canada, valuations are at a minimum, firm; in others, they’re probably overvalued. So there are risks there. We’re watching it closely. We’re working with our partners, the federal government, the superintendent of financial institutions,” he said in an interview on “Question Period” on CTV.

“Measures have been taken. They’ve been effective. We’ll keep up that vigilance. If more needs to be done, I’m sure the appropriate authorities will take those measures.”
The federal government has tightened mortgage regulations several times in a bid to prevent a property bubble from forming. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on January 17 that the government is watching the housing market closely and is ready to intervene if needed, but is not about to do so now.

Yes, the federal government has tightened mortgage regulations “several times”.. Here’s a timeline of those changes courtesy of Burbs Boy:

Jan 2006 – Minority Conservative Government elected
Feb 2006 – 25 year increase to 30 year on test basis
Jul 2006 – 30 year test affirmed and also increased to 35 year
Jul 2007 – 35 year increase to 40 year
Oct 2008 – 40 year decrease to 35 year
Mar 2010 – 35 year decrease to current 30 year

This post was submitted by wreckonomics.

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Limits to foreign ownership

Spork — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 08:03:04 +0000

Someone over at the Vancouver Courier is of the opinion that foreign buyers have driven up the cost of real estate in Vancouver.

Of course, capitalism requires competition, and free market principles should drive our housing market. But we no longer control that market. And despite growing evidence of market dysfunction, Premier Christy Clark, who could stiffen provincial regulation, and Mayor Gregor Robertson, who could increase taxes on foreign property owners, cede our land to foreign buyers.

Not so in Australia.

In recent years, Australian cities have experienced Vancouver-style real estate booms, with housing prices soaring from Sydney to Melbourne. Like here, buyers from China help drive Australia’s speculative real estate market. Faced with mounting public pressure, in 2010 the Kevin Rudd government introduced strict regulation aimed at foreign ownership. Under the new rules, the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) screens foreigners (including temporary residents and students) to determine their land purchase eligibility. Foreigners can’t buy existing properties and must build on vacant land within two years of purchase or face government-ordered sale. Scofflaws face capital gains confiscation. Finally, before foreign homeowners leave Australia, they must sell. No more overseas landlords Down Under.

Full article here. Is it time for BC to start looking at regulating home ownership and foreign buying?

This post was submitted by Spork.

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428 new listings, 65 sold in one day

wreckonomics — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 08:01:19 +0000

According to Paulb Monday was our first day of over 400 new listings in 2012:

New Listings 428
Price Changes 64
Sold Listings 65

Know how many days in 2011 had more than 400 new listings? None.

And look what’s happening in Richmond courtesy of Inventory.

Richmond Jan 3-16
New Listings 534
Price Changes 77
Sold 86

Some interesting things happening in this market early on in the year. The worst january in the last 10 years was in 2009 which saw a 20% sales to list ratio (we usually see at least double that).

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BC Assessments for 2012

jesse — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 17:23:53 +0000

BC Assessments are available for viewing for a limited time. These are based on sales at and around July 2011. A little bird told me a few people are getting some interesting increases in the mail. Given our collective nous, perhaps we can figure out which property types and neighbourhoods are going to see some marked increases in property tax outlays this year and give some guesses as to how much. Remember that the City of Vancouver uses 3 year averaging and that it’s the assessment value relative to all other properties, not the absolute value, that determines property tax outlay. As well there has been a shift in property taxes from businesses to households, something that is slated to end this year. One might think that a few households are going to be rather upset if redistribution were to continue.

I haven’t looked at the numbers yet but my guess is that detached houses, especially in west side neighbourhoods, are going to see the biggest tax rise this year, with condos seeing the least rise.

© jesse for Vancouver Condo Info, 2012. | Permalink | 54 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: bc, prices, relative valuation, vancouver

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Big banks and the housing market alarm

Eddie — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 08:35:12 +0000

There are a few banks out there making noise about the Canadian housing market. Let’s see, what are their names again? Oh, here they are.. Some place called CIBC and Royal Bank and then one called Toronto Dominion. They seem particularly concerned about the market in Vancouver and Toronto.

CIBC chief executive officer Gerry McCaughey told analysts and investors in Toronto that the housing market is “leaning heavily into an area that might be peaking,” and instead will begin to soften.

His comments came as the heads of Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Montreal also expressed concern over cooling housing prices, particularly in the condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver, where capacity is significantly overbuilt.

And from the second link:

British Columbia is forecast to have it worse, said senior economist Jacques Marcil, and will likely see “a signifcant correction” this year. Indeed, he said in a report today, the Vancouver market likely peaked last year.

The report, which examined the country’s provincial economies, projects home resales in British Columbia will sink 3.7 per cent this year, while prices decline 3.5 per cent.

This post was submitted by Eddie.

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Dramatic Numbers

Karl Marx Carney — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 05:39:16 +0000

Monday was a strange day for Real Estate in Vancouver. It’s normal this time of year for listing to outnumber buyers as people who haven’t managed to sell relist their property, but the ratios paulb just posted are mindboggling:

New Listings 376
Price Changes 56
Sold Listings 43

And as he also points out, the Westside is nuts:

New Listings 96
Price Changes 10
Sold Listings 5

Yes, that’s right. 96 new listings on the west side of Vancouver on one day and only 5 sales. Any idea whats going on here? Were there so many listings that all the sales didn’t get entered, or did we really just have crazy sales/ list ratio day?

And if your in the mood to contemplate dramatic numbers check these out, courtesy of McLovin:

Buddy got his assessment in Kelowna. He owns a 2 br condo with great view of the lake in the Skye building. Paid $660,000 presale in 2007 incl GST. Took possession in 2009.

2011 Assessment $631,000
2012 Assessment $541,000

Drop of 18% in 1 yr and over 20% from his presale purchase price in 2007.

Truthfully, if he had to sell the place he would be lucky to get $500,000. So he is down about 25% and there is no bottom in sight.

As Makaya points out:

to put things in perspective, assuming your buddy took possession exactly three years ago and sold it today for $500K, he has “lost” $4,444 on his house every month. I hope he’s making a good salary to compensate.

This post was submitted by Karl Marx Carney.

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2012: Another recession NOT coming.

Scott — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 08:03:41 +0000

Breath easy my friends, Vancouver Sun says no second recession in 2012:

The Conference Board of Canada, for instance, ruled out a double-dip recession for Canada, although it qualified the forecast, noting that it relies on the assumption that the European Union will successfully resolve its sovereign debt problems

BMO slightly more pessimistic, but still 60% no problem!

BMO puts the odds of the U.S. slipping into recession next year at roughly 40 per cent with depressed consumer confidence and ongoing foreclosures. A financial shock from Europe could tip the U.S. economy over the edge.

RBC thinks we should have kept the HST:

Royal Bank of Canada noted in its provincial outlook that the rejection of the harmonized sales tax in last summer’s referendum has added to the down-side risk in its forecast as the return to the provincial sales tax and the shift of the tax burden to business could slow the pace of business investment and job creation. RBC has lowered its growth estimate for 2012 to 2.3 per cent from an earlier forecast of three per cent.

But on a bright note we get those seaspan jobs!

Seaspan’s federal shipbuilding contract and the provincial government’s commitment to bring new mines into production should boost B.C. employment; how-ever, these will take time to materialize. Nevertheless, resource industries hold the most promise for robust growth for the rest of this decade with the greatest share of benefits skewed, for a change, to northern regions of the province.

Now which of these forecasters was most accurate going into 2008?

This post was submitted by Scott.

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Forecasts for 2012 housing market.

Karl Marx Carney — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 08:12:17 +0000

A very sensible forecast from Tsur Sommerville:

“We start off by saying I have no idea,” Somerville told the Georgia Straight in a phone interview. For him, forecasting is a risky business because “you’re wrong more often, even if you’re intelligent”.

An economist who earned his PhD from Harvard University, Somerville said that he prefers to evaluate what others have projected for the new year.

“The general trend seems to be that it’s going to be a slower market than 2011, and I think the combination of lingering economic unease and uncertainty is consistent with that,” the UBC academic explained. “The other thing is 2011—if you take away Richmond, the West Side [of Vancouver], and West Vancouver—was not some amazing prices-going-through-the-ceiling kind of year. In general for most places, things are going to look like 2011. Maybe a little bit slower.”

Asked about the biggest risk to the market, Somerville responded: “The economy, the economy, and the economy.”

Full article in the Georgia Straight.

This post was submitted by Karl Marx Carney.

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New Strata Rules

jeff — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 08:41:08 +0000

There are new strata regulations in BC, here’s the PDF and here’s an article with an overview:

In October 2009, the B.C. government passed the Strata Property Amendment Act, Bill 8. Under the act, many of the changes taking place were to be introduced by implementing regulations. Unlike Bill 8, which required the approval of the legislature, regulations are approved by provincial cabinet as an order in council. Within Bill 8, there were provisions that affected long-term planning and information certificates. Part 15 of the bill, applied to long-term planning, has just been adopted through the regulations as mandatory depreciation reports.

A depreciation report is basically a planning tool used by property owners (the strata corporation) to clearly understand what the strata is responsible for maintaining and repairing as part of its building system (a physical component inventory); the age of the building system; the projected life expectancy; when it should be planned for renewal; what it will cost when the time comes to renew the component; and how the strata will pay for it.

The new regulations provide a two-year window for strata corporations to comply with the mandatory requirement – by Dec. 13, 2013. Strata corporations of less than five units will be exempt, and strata corporations of five strata lots or more that wish to be exempt from the requirement must essentially pass a ¾ vote at an annual or special general meeting for each one-year period the depreciation report is required to be obtained.

Read the full outline in the Province newspaper.

This post was submitted by jeff.

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Water problems in New West condo

Kingston — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 17:47:10 +0000

Chilled wrote the following in this weekends thread:

Condo Boom?

I live in a high end New West condo that is approximately 3yrs old. They have recently had another major ‘flood.’ Fortunately I live on a floor well above the high water mark and my unit hasn’t suffered damage. Damages has been extensive. Being a renter I am not privy to the strata minutes, but I have had discussions with strata members and believe my information to be accurate.

“Defective expansion joints” are blowing out, causing main water lines to let go. Yikes!!! The strata has posted notices that “faulty expansion joints” are going to all be replaced.

Faulty? Yeah sure, probably installed by a “plumbers apprentice” without enough experience supervised by a journeyman who is hardly competent himself. As a tradesman myself, expansion joints just don’t ‘fail.’ Especially at an alarming rate and if they did, wouldn’t this be going on everywhere the product was installed leading to a subsequent recall?

Anyway, get this;

-the developer is the property management company
-the engineering company works for the developer
-the mechanical contractor works for the developer

Strata members tell me it is “warranty” but when I query them on who pays for the cleanup and restoration costs I’m told they are “not sure yet.” Basically, this will cost the strata hugh one way or the other.

Hey, any of the strata members reading this will recognize the building so read this carefully;

-call in a mechanical consulting engineer specializing in piping. You will have to bring someone in from out of province, maybe Alberta. The old boys club in Vancouver will prevent independent and impartial analysis
-FIRE the development company acting as the strata property management company. Do you see a conflict here as the building inches through the warranty period?
-take the engineering report to a legal firm willing to take the developer to task on this
-pursue the same avenue with all the other problems in the building. It is not normal to have the elevator service company on site as much as the mail man.

Finally, please stop telling us renters in the elevator “I wish I rent like you” as I know you drank the koolaid and made stupid decisions that will cost you for the rest of your lives.

But if you do happen to see the owner of my unit at an emergency strata meeting, please thank him for what is a huge rental subsidy.

Sign me,

Happily above the high tide mark.

This post was submitted by Kingston.

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Victoria Crashing

teekay — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 09:05:11 +0000

FishyRE points out that the latest housing market numbers out of Victoria look bad. Really bad.

House prices are down YOY for two years now. Condos are down YOY and flat over two. Attached is down 15% over two years. Yikes.

This post was submitted by teekay.

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Mayor announces panel on housing affordability

Jackson — Tue, 06 Dec 2011 04:03:58 +0000

Not just any panel.. a “Blue Ribbon” panel to look at the underlying issues of housing affordability in Vancouver. I hope it’s a Pabst Blue Ribbon panel.

Saying that the high cost of housing is threatening to make Vancouver unlivable, Robertson said he wants the panel to come up with short and long-term solutions, including using more of the city’s own lands.

But he also acknowledged that the seemingly intractable issues around why Vancouver’s housing remains among the most expensive in Canada likely means his Vision Vancouver-led council won’t find solutions quickly, even within their three year term of office.

He said the “task force”, which will be named within weeks, will include advocates, architects, developers, building owners, financiers and citizens.

“They’ll identify ways we can increase Vancouver’s supply of affordable homes — both immediately, for the most urgent needs, and for the long term,” he said.

Why would they include advocates and citizens on this panel? Don’t architects, developers, building owners and financiers have all the knowledge this panel needs.

I’m no expert, but I’m guessing the advice will be something like this: Spend lots of money designing and building low income housing on city land, provide incentives to developers and building owners and encourage a system whereby financiers can skim a little more from the average Vancouverite that feels they just must get into the can’t lose housing market.

Likely not to be addressed: anything that discourages people from buying with as little down payment as possible backed up with CMHC insurance that removes risk from the lender.

This post was submitted by Jackson.

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Problems with too much suckage at OV

Spork — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 07:16:57 +0000

It looks like money isn’t the only thing being sucked up by Vancouvers Olympic Village. This Global News segment is about complaints from residents about negative pressure in the ventilation system leading to health concerns.

This post was submitted by Spork.

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The move-up buyer is screwed.

John — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 08:10:57 +0000

If you recently bought a condo in Vancouver this probably isn’t what you want to hear, but let’s just think about this situation realistically. Let’s pretend we get the ‘perfect’ scenario of constantly rising house prices. A young couple buys a condo to get on the property ladder and plans on starting a family and moving up to a larger home in a few years. When it’s time to sell, it’s a jackpot! Their condo has increased by $100 grand and they magically find a buyer at that price right away..

but wait. That home they wanted to buy is up $200 grand. Better hope their income has been increasing a lot faster than everyone else.

And that’s in the magic ‘balanced’ scenario where homes and condos increase at roughly the same percentage year over year. For a while here in Vancouver, house prices have lept up while condos have been mostly flat. The hypothetical move-up buyer is even more screwed.

Maybe it’s time to get some smaller furniture and turn the ‘den’ into a babies room, since we don’t seem to build many large family size apartments in Vancouver. It’s either houses or ‘junior’ one bedrooms with little in between.

Constantly increasing house prices means you only win if you sell and get out of town or sell and rent. The move-up buyer is screwed.

This post was submitted by John.

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Candidates on Vancouver house prices

Drippytown — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 09:01:13 +0000

One candidate in the upcoming election is focusing on the issue of house prices in Vancouver. Independent Sandy Garossino thinks that Foreign buyers are driving up Vancouver property prices and pushing out young families.

Garossino said that if the average median income in Metro Vancouver is $67,500 and the average price of a house in Vancouver stays at around $800,000, then it’s locals who will be forced out.

Garossino said she knows placing ownership restrictions is not an easy solution and that there are complex and sensitive issues involved. Still, she said, local affordability needs to be addressed.

“This is such a concern to me. Where are families going to raise their children?”

Garossino says other cities facing similar problems have have workable solutions.

“Singapore has zoning requirements that allow certain areas to be freely available to the international investor and other areas are only available to domestic buyers.”

Two Mayoral candidates seem to have noticed that this issue is getting attention and added their own thoughts. Gregor Robertson sort of thinks it might be an issue, but see’s the next couple of years as the time to look at the problem and figure out what to do about it.

Gregor Robertson told CBC News Sunday that the city needs to understand the role foreign ownership is playing before taking any steps to change it.

“I see these next couple years as assessing what the problem is, how significant it is, and what best tools are that might address it,” Robertson said.

Suzanne Anton believes that people shouldn’t have to leave Vancouver to buy a home, but doesn’t think foreign buyers are the problem. ~~Dave~~ Anton says the solution is to cut development costs so that builders can pass on the savings to buyers.

“Market-based solutions to housing supply are the only effective means of creating real affordability,” Anton said.

“Everything else is a gimmick.”

This post was submitted by Drippytown.

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Going down?

wreckonomics — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 16:20:01 +0000

At least one person thinks that Global Recession MkII is about to cause Mr. Carney to slash interest rates in Canada. The prediction is a 75% drop from the rock bottom 1% to a rocker bottomer .25%

This could be really good news for the few people who’ve built up good credit and cash. I can think of at least two cases where debt levels rose so high that property prices were crashing while interest rates were dropping.

There are many places in that big country just to the south of us where you can buy a house for half what it cost a few years ago and you can lock in for ridiculously low mortgage rates. Japan also saw home prices dropping while interest rates fell. Heck it even happened here in Vancouver at the start of the eighties.

Only a moron would think that a housing market crash means no one is buying and everyone loses their job. Someones always buying, they just don’t always pay the same price.

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BCREA Calls for Price Drops. WAIT WHAT?

jesse — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 16:54:44 +0000

BCREA in a recent report is forecasting “stability” in the housing market, but at the same time is also forecasting (average) price drops in most areas:

After declining 12 per cent in 2010, residential unit sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC are forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 77,000 units in 2011 and a further 4 per cent to 80,000 units in 2012. However, BC home sales will remain relatively low by historic measures, falling short of their 10-year average of 87,600 units. While low mortgage interest rates are expected to persist through 2012 accommodating housing demand, headwinds in the global economy will act to restrain BC economic and employment growth.

BC economic growth slowed from an Olympic charged 3.8 per cent in 2010 to a forecast 2.1 per cent this year. Lackluster economic performance is largely the result of weaker than expected US economic activity, some belt tightening and deleveraging by households, and the Euro-zone debt crisis. Employment growth in the province is estimated to fall to 1.1 per cent this year. While emerging Asian markets have tilted some BC exports in an upward trajectory, domestic demand has stagnated. Retail sales in the province are estimated to increase just 1.5 per cent this year after climbing 5 to 6 per cent per annum over much of the last decade. Against this backdrop, moderate consumer demand for housing and relatively flat home prices are forecast through 2012.

Despite more moderate consumer demand, average home prices have climbed dramatically this year. The average annual BC MLS® residential price is estimated to increase 12 per cent to $564,600 in 2011. Rather than reflecting market conditions, the upward skewing of average price data was the result of a change in regional demand patterns and a shift in the mix of home types sold rather than as a result of a return to pre-recession market froth. By the winter months, most of the upward bias in average price data will have dissipated which will contribute to the average annual BC MLS® residential price decline of 2.5 per cent to $550,500 in 2012.

For flat to falling prices, that means months of inventory averaging about 6 for the entire year. That means longer times to sale and more delistings.

© jesse for Vancouver Condo Info, 2011. | Permalink | 47 comments | Add to del.icio.us
Post tags: bc, economy, prices, rebgv, sales

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Vote

The Pope — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 16:35:53 +0000

If you live in and around Vancouver you probably know its election time. Voting day is on the 19th.

This is an open topic political thread. Who do you feel is best suited to lead this city and why?

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Ambitious people leaving Vancouver

Jackson — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 04:02:17 +0000

The economy in this city is broken. I can no longer count on two hands the number of friends and coworkers who have left to find better opportunity elsewhere in the last few years. As Vancouver Magazine points out, it’s what young ambitious people are doing right now. Vancouver is squeezing the middle class out.

Around January 2002, the average price of a detached house in Metro Vancouver was $390,000. That has since nearly tripled to $1.1 million. For those who couldn’t or didn’t buy in—who were outbid, came late to the party, or sat it out waiting for a massive market correction—real estate has been a dismal science. This July, the MLS listed only 24 two-bedroom condos for sale under $300,000. That’s the maximum mortgage available to a household earning the median family income; Vancouver proper has about 30,000 renter households in that category. The story of real-estate affordability here can be told in that one stat: in a city of over 600,000 people, two dozen bottom-of-the-barrel starter condos available for sale to the middle class.

This post was submitted by Jackson.

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Property estimates now public

Adam — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 07:01:25 +0000

Zoocasa.com is now giving public access to home appraisal values for free.

Carefully guarded data on home appraisal values – once the private preserve of real-estate industry insiders – has been posted by a listings website backed by Rogers Communications Inc., which has tapped private databases to give people an instant estimate of a property’s value.

That’s from an article over at the Globe and Mail where they go on to talk about how moves like this weakens the position of Real Estate agents who’ve used privileged access to market information to justify their commissions.

The argument against such a move has always been that it impinges on personal rights to privacy, which isn’t such a long shot when the president of Zoocasa pitches it as a fun way to find out the value of friends and neighbors houses.

By entering any address in the country and providing a few additional details, such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms in a house, a user can get an instant price estimate. It can give them a better idea of what their own house is worth – or something to gossip about around the dinner table as they discuss the net worth of friends, family members and neighbours.

“That’s one of the fun things about this service,” says Butch Langlois, president of Zoocasa. “It’s not necessarily your own home that you are interested in pricing.”

This post was submitted by Adam.

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Worst province for families

The Pope — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 16:32:22 +0000

Incomes have fallen while cost of living has risen, leaving young families in BC worse off than any other province.

Since 1976, household incomes for couples aged 25 to 34 in B.C. have dropped by six per cent after adjusting for inflation, said the study by Paul Kershaw of the University of B.C.’s Human Early Learning Partnership.

This is especially significant given that the proportion of young women who contribute to household income increased by 42 per cent over the same time period, while the number of men in the workforce remained relatively constant.

B.C. is the only province in Canada to report a drop in average income for this age group, the study found.

At the same time, housing prices have skyrocketed across Canada, and nowhere more so than in B.C. Real estate prices have risen 149 per cent in this province since 1976, when housing costs accounted for less than three times the average household income for young couples. Today, it is seven times as much.

The bottom line?

“B.C. is now the hardest province in which to raise a family,” study author Kershaw said in an interview. “And that’s because we’re the only jurisdiction in the country where household income for young couples has actually fallen behind where it was a generation ago.”

This reality is setting the stage for “a silent generational crisis occurring in homes across Canada,” he said.

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The Renting Option

wreckonomics — Wed, 12 Oct 2011 07:01:52 +0000

Well Global is certainly getting a lot of attention on this blog with their ‘Generation How’ series. This is an interesting one though, all about the renting choice and how much cheaper it is in Vancouver than buying.

Are young families in Vancouver better off renting?

During the height of the US bubble, many of the most expensive cities had prices that outran rental values. That trend has flipped now with the correction and it’s cheaper to buy in many US cities. It’s been cheaper to buy in the past here, will Vancouver ever see that again?

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