Category Archives: BC

Housing crash implications for banks

If you haven’t seen it yet, you should really check out this post by Ben Rabidoux over at The Economic Analyst.

This report was put together mid-June and things haven’t gotten any better since then.

It’s a lot of stuff you already know, but some data you may not have seen and it’s jam packed with beautiful charts.

Check out the how the BC economy has grown in construction, but flatlined outside:

And there’s this little data point as well:

Before diving into the data, consider this fun anecdote: There are currently over 5,000 homes in Vancouver metro area for sale for over $1 million according to  In comparison, the NAR reports that in April, just over 7,000 homes sold in the entire US were sold for over $1 million.  And this despite the fact that the US population is 135X greater than the metro Vancouver market, the average personal disposable income in the US is 20% higher than the Vancouver average ($37,100 vs. $30,800) while US per capita GDP is higher than the average for all of BC.

Do yourself a favour and read the full post over at The Economic Analyst if you haven’t already.





We’re still building leaky condos

We received this PDF from Robert Funk, a building technologist who specializes in four story wood frame envelope failure.

Robert says that despite the Leaky condo crisis across the lower mainland we’re still building condos that will have water problems.

Here’s an excerpt and a few pictures from the PDF, download the full PDF here for the complete story.

“The way we’ve always done it”

Written by Robert Funk

Leaky Condo remediation has come a long way in the last decade. In the last decade we have realized what a mess has been made and covered up in the walls of our homes. There are countless stories of heart break caused by financial devastation. First you purchase a home that you can afford and make payments on for the next 25 years in which time your building falls apart. Then comes the infighting of strata and owners, some for some against remediation. You pay a large sum of money, usually more than your original savings and down payment. Then for the next 18 months you live like a hostage under a tarp with loud apelike construction workers climbing in and out of your windows and banging on your walls. Welcome to Home Owner Hell.

I’m a building technologist and I specialize in Four Story Wood Framed Envelope Failure. This means I take buildings apart for a living. Things have changed allot, Rain screen,we discovered was used on 100 year old houses, (we never had to take them apart so it took a long time to discover this). Many more things have changed but some things have stayed the same and some have gotten even worse.

Continue reading We’re still building leaky condos

Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again!  Friday is when we do our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Vancouver market in full retreat
Championship of lost sales
REBGV news release for July 2012
GVREB news release for July 2012
How much $ has left the economy?
New site forces realtors to compete
‘Think Housing’ contest winners
Renovation Boom
BCSC alleges million $ fraud
No new steps to cool market
New framework for credit unions
Global slowdown dashes hopes
Unsold Toronto condos growing

And here’s a couple of charts, the first one is from VMD and shows what the average Vancouver house price has done in the last two years:

This second chart is from Ben Rabidoux and was linked by Jesse – you can draw on your own red line for July:

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!


2012: Worst July since 2008

Ring the bell!  July 2012 has come to a close.

Soon we’ll see the press releases from the REBGV (and more entertaining from the GVREB) but it’s starting to look a lot like 2008 again.

Sales have dropped off dramatically, we’re down about 16% from last July and about 9% from last month.

Listings are growing slower than they did in the spring, but MOI is close to what it was in July 2008 according to VMD:

July 2012 Sales:
YoY: -16%
MoM: -9%

Months Inventory:

2012-07: ~8.5
2012-06: 7.8
2012-05: 6.3
2012-04: 5.9
2012-03: 5.3
2011-07: 5.9
2008-07: 8.8

According to madashell we needed to see less than 115 listings on the last day of the month to have lower sales volume than 2008.

It looks like we just squeaked under that, Paulb says we saw 106 sales for the day.  Here are the rest of the stats for July 31st:

New Listings 186
Price Changes 137
Sold Listings 106


The incredible sinking Richmond

Inventory posted this update to detached sales in Richmond and it’s astounding.

We’re not at the end of the month quite yet, so this number will rise, but we would have to have an incredible amount of sales to not have July 2012 register as an all time record low number of sales.

Here’s the comparison for July detached sales all the way back to 1995, we’re currently sitting at about half of the low normal level:

Richmond Detached July

1995 = 108
1996 = 117
1997 = 122
1998 = 86
1999 = 113
2000 = 96
2001 = 183
2002 = 154
2003 = 209
2004 = 129
2005 = 170
2006 = 97
2007 = 175
2008 = 92
2009 = 221
2010 = 107
2011 = 123
2012 = 54 (-56%) ***July 29

Just what is happening there to the south of Vancouver?  Have houses in Richmond fallen out of favour with buyers for some reason?