Category Archives: Budget

OMG OSFI!

YVR pointed out this article by Rob Mclister about the OSFI B-20 bombshell:

The new OSFI’s stress test rules will make 20% of the mortgage market not qualify or they will have to reduce their mortgage by 18% to qualify. That is before recent and future mortgage rate increases are factored in.

Roughly 80% of new big bank lending in the richly valued Toronto and Vancouver markets is low-ratio mortgage lending

OSFI’s stress test, as proposed, would slash buying power for prime buyers by roughly 18%

For non-prime borrowers, qualifying rates would immediately rocket into the 6% to 7% range

Read the full article here.

Good time to be sitting on a $800k down payment

With interest rates going up there’s good news and bad news for housing. It can make it tough for people who are stretched thin financially, but might be good news for people waiting to buy:

The people who will benefit are those who have a nest egg and have been waiting for the right time to buy a home, he said.

“The real winner here is somebody sitting on a $800,000 down payment who says I’m going to wait for prices to fall.”

Overall, interest rates will continue to rise, added Brander. He predicts mortgage-lending rates could increase by several percentage points in the coming years. But as long as those increases are incremental, like Wednesday’s announcement, the economy will be able to absorb it, he said.

Seems like it’s always a good time to be sitting on an $800k down payment, but maybe we’re just optimists. Read the full article here.

Owe Canada! Canadians love debt

Owe Canada posted this in the weekends thread and it’s got some very interesting numbers:

Canadian annual gdp at the present time is $2.06 trillion.

In the 1 year period from the end of December, 2015 to the end of December, 2016 (calendar year 2016) the Canadian economy grew by 1.4% – ie: the size of the economy grew by $28.9 billion.

In this same 1 year time frame the total debt outstanding in Canada grew by $309 billion. For each $1.00 the economy grew in this 1 year period the total debt outstanding increased by $10.69.

Looking at just the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors in Canada. In the 1 year period from the end of December, 2015 to the end of December, 2016 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors increased by $215 billion. For each $1.00 the economy grew in this 1 year period the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors increased by $7.43.

At the end of December, 2016 the total debt outstanding in Canada was 3.5 times greater than our annual gdp, and looking at just the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors, that was 2.5 times greater than our annual gdp.

Here’s more from Owe Canada.

Interest free loans get expensive

Bullwhip29 points out an article that says the BC first time buyer loans program will likely cost the government twice as much as they claim.

“The Ministry of Finance estimates that for every dollar of loan proceeds under HOME, taxpayers will lose about 19 cents in administrative costs and foregone interest. This estimate ignores the cost of default losses that may arise if borrowers are unable to repay their loans.”

Read the full article here.

Can we fix affordability with more debt?

Most people agree that there’s a problem with the BC real estate market, and that problem is usually called ‘affordability’.

Affordability usually means what you’re buying is too expensive, but it can also mean that you just can’t afford the monthly payment.

Interest rates look at risk of rising, but have been at rock bottom levels for years.  That means there’s not much room to move on ‘affordability’ when it comes to interest rates.

So we’re stuck with two options: price comes down or government starts giving away money.

Important announcement” for first time home buyers from the BC government.

Daily Hive says they know what this announcement will be.

Update: They were correct, here are some details:

The B.C. Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership program will provide a maximum of  $37,500 — or up to 5 per cent of the purchase price — with a 25-year loan that is interest-free and payment-free for the first five years.

“The dream of home ownership must remain in the grasp of the middle class here in British Columbia,” said Premier Christy Clark.

The intention of the program is to assist people who can afford the mortgage payments on a new home but are challenged to make the down payment.

The province will start accepting applications for the program on Jan. 16, 2017.

Homebuyers will pay no monthly interest or principal payments over the first five years as long as the home remains their principal residence.

After the first five years, homebuyers begin making monthly payments at current interest rates.

If too much debt got us into this problem, surely it can get us out of it right?

Meanwhile the Bank of Canada is warning again about huge mortgages and growing household debt.