Archive for the ‘Canada’ Category

One of the most liveable cities

Wednesday, August 20th, 2014

There’s a magazine called the economist and sometimes they rank cities based on a number of factors. One of these factors is not the cost of living.

This year three Canadian cities made the top ten: Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary took 3rd, 4th and 5th place.

When a five-year view is taken, global liveability has declined by 0.68 percentage points, highlighting the fact that the last five years have been characterised by heightened unrest in the wake of the global economic crisis, which has undermined many of the developmental gains that cities may have experienced through public policy and investment,” the report said.

Read more: http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/calgary-makes-top-ten-list-of-livable-cities-1.1966845#ixzz3AwisPTPr

Bank ratings go negative

Tuesday, August 12th, 2014

At the end of last week S&P cut the rating for Canadian banks to negative.

Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto- Dominion Bank and four other Canadian lenders’ rating outlooks were cut to negative by Standard & Poor’s, which cited regulations that seek to limit government support in a crisis.

Canadian officials issued regulatory proposals Aug. 1 aimed at relieving taxpayers from the burden of potential bailouts if key banks fail. The new rules mandate any new senior unsecured debt issued by a so-called systemically important bank must be convertible to equity if the firm faces insolvency. The proposals are open to public consultations until Sept. 12.

Read the full article here.

What’s wrong with Canada’s economy?

Wednesday, August 6th, 2014

Economists are apparently ‘scratching their heads‘ over Canada’s humdrum economic growth.

The US has been growing new jobs lately, but not so much here at home.

In June, Canada lost 9,400 positions and the jobless rate edged up to 7.1%, the highest reading in six months. On Friday, Statistics Canada will release its labour force survey for July.

The Canadian economy “should improve next year when stronger U.S. growth helps to boost hiring and investment here at home,” the Conference Board’s Mr. Hodgson said in Tuesday’s report.

Read the full article over at the Vancouver Sun.

Who wants a housing market crash?

Monday, July 14th, 2014

You might want a housing market crash (or ‘correction’ if the word ‘crash’ is too strong), but that’s likely because you want to buy a house.

It’s not hard to believe that the majority of Canadians don’t long for a housing market correction, especially those who own property.

It feels good when your equity rises right? What’s not to like?

The Financial Post looks at these feelings, and whether they are sensible or not.

They split home-owers into three categories: First time buyers, young owners with growing families and older owners thinking about downsizing.

They say the first two groups would actually benefit from a crash.

If you’re wondering why most homeowners should be begging for a housing market crash read the article here and let us know if you agree with their reasoning.

 

The everything bubble: how does it end?

Tuesday, July 8th, 2014

Does every major asset seem expensive to you right now?  Does it seem overpriced?

Well, what if it is, where do we end up?

The NY Times has an article titled How The Everything Boom might end: The Good, Bad and the ugly.

Basically it breaks down into (1) the good: Low price of capital unleashes productivity, economy grows into current valuations. (2) The bad: Japan style stagnation 15 years of low rates and low returns or (3) the ugly: spike in prices with a depressed economy.

But the pattern of the last few years shows that the “bad” scenario has been closest to the reality. That doesn’t mean the rest of the bad script will continue in the years ahead, but it should prompt those predicting the first or third outcome to wrestle with why they have been wrong so far.

So what do you think? Whats the future look like from your view point and would it have been any easier to predict the future in the past?

Young adults buying condos: what are you thinking?

Wednesday, June 11th, 2014

You want the pride of ownership.

And maybe buying a condo is like training wheels for real home ownership.

You get the practice of paying property tax and maintenance.

But over at the Globe and Mail Rob Carrick is trying to talk down the market again – he says maybe you should rent the condo and save the difference on the cost of buying.

“I would say buyers in their 20s probably won’t live in that condo for five years,” Mr. Fleming said. “They’re going to either outgrow it, or find a mate and want a bigger, better or different place.”

Even if you meet someone and live together in your condo, you’ll probably want to move when you have kids. Mr. Fleming said an increasing number of couples are starting families in condos, but a house is still seen by most as the best place to do this.

Moving from a condo you own to a house will cost you a lot. If you used a real estate agent to sell the place, you might pay a $15,000 commission plus HST to sell a $300,000 condo. “It’s expensive to move,” Mr. Fleming said. “Hopefully you purchased that condo for $250,000.”

Read the full article here.

Dirt cheap rates, limited time offer

Wednesday, May 14th, 2014

The Investors Group is making waves with a 1.99% 3 year variable mortgage.

Here’s a story about it over at the CBC.

The offer comes with strings attached — namely that you can’t break the mortgage for any fee during the three-year term, unless you sell your home. But the offer does come with the ability to double up monthly payments, or pay a 15 per cent lump sum once a year.

In real dollar terms, it could knock a lot of money off a mortgage payment, at least over the short term. A standard 25-year $500,000 mortgage at a five-year rate of 2.99 per cent works out to $2,364 a month. That mortgage under IG’s new terms would be $2,115 a month — savings of $249 monthly, at least for the first three years, and as long as the variable rate doesn’t increase.

This is from ‘the first one’s free’ school of marketing.  It looks like Investors Group is willing to lose money on mortgages in order to make it up with more business in the future.

It will be interesting to see if offers like this give a bump to the market and to see where we are with rates in 3 years.

The Real Estate Agent Bubble.

Monday, May 12th, 2014

Does this stat surprise you?

About 1 in 245 Canadians over 19 is a Real Estate Agent.

We have almost as many people in the country selling real estate as we have building it.

This according to an article in the Financial Post

Royal LePage chief executive Phil Soper blames this increase on what he calls ‘speculative’ agents.

“This is a real regional story. If you look at Quebec, where they took a different approach to licensing and professionalism by increasing the length of time and difficulty to get your licence, their ranks have shrunk,”

So who’s out there getting their real estate license?  Sounds like this is the easy path to riches and as long as we get enough churn in the market there should be plenty of commissions to go around, right?

Read the full article here.

New CMHC rules: How much impact?

Tuesday, April 29th, 2014

At first glance the new CMHC rules sounds like a minor tweak rather than a major change, and it might be just that.

When the CMHC announced the change they specified that the products being eliminated made up less than 3% of their insured mortgage products by number of mortgages.  What we haven’t seen anywhere are numbers in mortgage value, and BOM pointed this out yesterday:

Read this:

“The Crown corporation has been offering insurance on second homes since 2005. It has been offering insurance to self-employed people without strong income validation since 2007.”

And then read this:

“CMHC says its second home program and its self-employed-without-third-party-income-validation programs combined account for less than 3 per cent of its insurance business volumes in term of the numbers of mortgages insured.”

CHMC has a pool of mortgages insured accumulated over the last 25 years. They have only offered the products they are cancelling for 7 to 9 years but they make up 3% of that pool. Simple math indicates over the last 7 years about 10% of mortgages would have been part of the program they are cancelling otherwise it could never reach 3% of the total pool which was already significant prior to the program starting.

So how much demand was there for insured mortgages on second homes and mortgages for the self employed without income verification?  The numbers may be higher than we first thought.

CMHC: One home is enough?

Monday, April 28th, 2014

The CMHC has just ‘tightened’ their mortgage regulations again.

You might not have know that the CMHC would provide mortgage insurance on second homes, but they won’t anymore:

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. is cutting the types of mortgage insurance it offers, meaning the era of tighter rules for home buyers hasn’t come to an end.

The Crown corporation said late Friday it will stop insuring mortgages on second homes, effective May 30. Anyone who has an insured mortgage will no longer be able to act as a co-borrower on another mortgage that CMHC insures. In addition, it will stop offering mortgage insurance to self-employed people who don’t have standard documents to prove their income.

Gotta love that first sentence: The era of tighter rules hasn’t come to an end?  I guess by tighter rules they mean doing away with the most absurdist bubble policies in the form of zero down 40 year mortgages.

What’s next? Banks not being able to offload risk for mortgage lending?

Here’s the amazing bit for those just tuning in:

The Crown corporation has been offering insurance on second homes since 2005. It has been offering insurance to self-employed people without strong income validation since 2007.

Remember NINJA loans in the states?  Good thing we never had those here!

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