Real professional posted an updated housing sentiment indicator over at Vancouverpeak.com
This is an excerpt from the housing bubble chart book produced by Pacifica Partners.
If you’re sharp-eyed you may have noticed some ‘special offers’ on 5 year fixed rates. BMO kicked off another low-rate war by once again offering a rock-bottom 5 year fixed rate of 2.99% and a new 10 year fixed at 3.99%.
Nobody wants to be left out of fun like that, so TD, CIBC and Scotiabank quickly followed suit and started offering a 2.99% rate as well.
How are customers responding?
Techar said reaction to BMO’s previous offer was fantastic. “We saw an increase in volume almost immediately and it continued for the whole two-week period.”
These deals are temporary and expire in a few weeks. You’d almost think something was about to happen March 29th, but who knows? Rumour has it more changes are coming to insured mortgage rules in Canada whether it’s higher down payment requirements or shorter amortization terms.
So is this a deal too good to refuse, or a trap for the gullible?
If rates start to rise, could it be a benefit to buy a home now? Would these ridiculously low rates offset a drop in prices at a higher interest rate?
What about in markets whose prices have fallen for the last few years? There are many of these across BC – The Okanagan has seen prices collapse by more than 30% so already.
And what does Mark Carney have to say about all of this?
“Canadian household spending is expected to remain high relative to GDP as households add to their debt burden, which remains the biggest domestic risk,” Carney said Thursday as he held the bank’s trend-setting rate to 1 per cent.
It seems that everywhere around the world that house prices lept up quickly there was always someone predicting a ‘plateau’. The idea that even if the market is overpriced the correction won’t come in the form of a crash, but instead property prices will stay flat and wait for income and rents to catch up. This prediction is of course being applied to the Canadian real estate market as well:
Matthieu Arseneau, a senior economist with the National Bank, likes mortgage payments as the best yardstick. That’s because the evidence tells him that the rise of interest rates from today’s bargain-basement levels will be moderate. Based on this, he thinks it’s silly to foresee a housing crash, since monthly payments won’t get into distress territory even by the time rates peak in about three years.
That’s why Arseneau dismisses apocalyptic talk about a housing crash in Canada. As a cautious analyst, he doesn’t rule out any scenario absolutely, but Arseneau said Monday that this one is awfully unlikely: “I think there will be no collapse unless there’s a worldwide recession and credit crisis.”
Of course these comments regard the Canadian real estate market, not the Vancouver market specifically. Can anyone name any real estate markets that have reached Vancouver levels and then gone flat?
Full article at the Ottawa Citizen.