Archive for the ‘data’ Category

Dutch Disease: Alberta Canada vs. Norway

Wednesday, April 1st, 2015

The term ‘Dutch Disease‘ refers to an increase in natural resource based economy crowding out manufacturing and other sectors. It’s also a stand in descriptor for taking all your winnings in a booming market and re-investing them in the same market.

When Oil prices were high, both the province of Alberta and the country of Norway benefited from a petroleum based economy, but they approached the future in different ways.

Brian Ripley over at CHPC summarizes Bruce Campbells take-away of the differences between these two economies approach to oil wealth:

Alberta’s so called “progressive” conservative governments; 7 consecutive iterations since 1971, have squandered their provincial energy resources leaving their treasury with a CAD 12 billion dollar debt and a 500 million dollar deficit.

Norway, a county of 5.2 million people (Alberta’s population is similar at 4.2 million), began their first successful North Sea oil drilling in 1971 and by maintaining sovereign control and creating partnerships with the private sector “… now sits on top of a CAD ONE TRILLION DOLLAR pension fund established in 1990 to invest the returns of oil and gas. The capital has been invested in over 9,000 companies worldwide including over 200 in Canada. IT IS NOW THE LARGEST SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND IN THE WORLD”

Read the full article over at CHPC.

Where’d yo job go? Build or perish.

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

Good news!

There was a big jump in full time jobs in February!

The bad news?

Some people think this is ‘unsustainable‘ because most of the jobs were in construction or ‘public sector’ and the recent drop in oil prices may have an effect on these parts of the economy.

Screenshot 2015-03-29 18.03.24

 

But in the meanwhile if you’re looking for work and want to know who’s hiring find your nearest construction pit or government office.

Read the original article over at wolfstreet.

Economic Inaction: Record low job growth in Canada

Wednesday, March 25th, 2015

There’s not a whole lot of hiring going on across Canada at the moment.

For the last 15 months year over year job growth has been under 1 percent.  Apparently this makes it the longest stretch of such low growth outside of recessions in almost 40 years of record keeping.

Employers shed 1,000 positions last month, according to Statistics Canada, and the jobless rate rose two notches to a five-month high of 6.8 per cent as more people looked for work. Annual employment growth has hovered at about 0.6 per cent in the 15 months since December, 2013.

The last period of least 15 months of growth below 1 per cent was during the 2008-2009 recession, when often it slumped into negative territory, according to Statistics Canada.

It’s not all bad news though. While full time employment is not seeing gains temporary and self employment is growing:

In the past year, temporary employment has climbed 2.3 per cent while permanent positions are up 0.1 per cent.

Temp employment – which includes seasonal, contract and casual jobs, accounts for 12 per cent of the total. Self-employment has jumped 2.2 per cent in that time, public-sector employment by 1.2 per cent and that in the private sector by by 0.2 per cent.

Read the full article here.

IMF issues fresh warning on Canada housing market

Monday, March 9th, 2015

Apparently it’s not just the Bank of Canada that thinks Canadian RE buyers are suckers. The IMF is issuing yet another warning of potential problems in the Canadian Real Estate Market.

The International Monetary Fund is raising red flags about Canada’s housing market, warning that moves by Ottawa in recent years to tighten mortgage lending standards and boost oversight of the country’s financial system haven’t gone far enough.

Household debt levels remain well above those in other Western countries, the organization said in a commentary posted to its website Monday. Home prices have jumped 60 per cent in the past 15 years and remain overvalued from 7 per cent to 20 per cent, in line for a “soft landing” over the next few years, the IMF said.

At the same time, it reiterated its call for Canada to collect more data on its housing market and to centralize oversight of the financial sector. As it stands, regulation remains fractured among the Department of Finance, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and provincial governments all playing separate roles in regulating the housing the market.

Read the full article in the Globe and Mail.

What do these cities have in common?

Monday, March 2nd, 2015

Take a look at this list:

Calgary
Winnipeg
Edmonton
Gatineau
Halifax
Hamilton
Oshawa
Montreal
London
Kitchener
Kingston
Ottawa
Quebec
Regina
Saguenay
Saint John
Sudbury
St.John’s
St. Catharines
Sherbrooke
Saskatoon
Thunder Bay
Toronto
Trois Rivieres
Vancouver
Victoria

Know what those 26 cities have in common?

They’re all Canadian for one, but they are also places where house prices have doubled or tripled over the last 15 years.

As special as Vancouver is, it’s apparently not unique when it comes to rising prices.

Thanks to Joe Mainlander for pointing this out, original data source is Toronto Condo Bubble.

Where Canadian house prices are up or down

Wednesday, February 18th, 2015

The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association is now showing about half of the countries markets with rising and half with dropping prices.

Toronto and Vancouver are doing well so far with a year over year increase of 4.9% and 1.8% .

The big winner? That would be St. Catharines with a YOY increase of 16.1%.

The overall average house price grew 3.1 per cent in the year to January, to $401,143. That’s the smallest increase since April, 2013, but it’s largely a story of two still-hot housing markets: Toronto and Vancouver. Strip out those two cities and average house prices are down 0.3 per cent over the past year.

Home sales, meanwhile, are 2 per cent lower than they were a year ago, CREA numbers showed.

Major energy industry centres like Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon and Regina saw some of the sharpest declines in housing demand, TD economist Diana Petramala noted.

There is “a widening regional wedge” in Canada’s housing markets, Petramala wrote in a client note, as oil-importing cities’ housing markets benefit from lower oil prices while producer cities struggle.

Read the full article here.

OV condo unit sale gets big price drop

Monday, February 16th, 2015

“If they got in early, they got burnt” says the selling agent about the Olympic Village condo development.

The Globe and Mail features this deal where a unit was purchased new for $1,565-million + HST in 2010 and recently sold for somewhat less.

He says prices dropped in 2013, when the city took over sales. At that time, he sold a 1,200-square-foot unit, with a water view, in the same building for $860,000. “That’s more like a Burnaby price,” Mr. Yan says.

Last December, he advised a client to purchase this unit, and she jumped on it. She’d been looking for three months in Richmond and Yaletown as well.

“I said to her, ‘If you had talked to me a year earlier, I would have got you an even better deal [in the building],’” Mr. Yan says.

Read the full article here.

Drop in west side sales?

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2015

Reader Barb Rennie posted this in yesterdays thread, can any Realtors vouch for it’s accuracy?

Total number of Sales in West Vancouver for Detached Homes:

Month of January 2014 – 55
Month of January 2015 – 36

Total number of Sales in Vancouver Westside for Detached Homes:

Month of January 2014 – 147
Month of January 2015 – 77

Are all sales from January 2015 are tabulated yet or is this apparent drop in west side sales simply due to incomplete data?

Local buyers drive up prices on east side

Monday, February 2nd, 2015

So the Canadian dollar is in the toilet now which means buying stuff here in some other currencies gets you a nice 25% discount compared to a year ago.

And yet who’s driving up prices on the east side of Vancouver? Local buyers according to some realtors.

“We had 20 people in the city who would have paid asking price and 10 who wrote offers and were willing to pay more,” said Rockel of Macdonald Realty Ltd.

She said no overseas buyers were involved in the final offers.

The big news was the property that got 31 offers:

Meanwhile, Vancouver realtors are still agog over the 31 offers that were received for a home at 3 East 60th Ave. in South Vancouver which was listed at $899,000 and went on sale 10 days ago.

“It was for sale on the Tuesday and by the Friday we took offers,” said Sebastien Albrecht, a realtor with Royal Lepage.

“I’ve seen multiple offers on properties — the most being 10 or 12 — I don’t think any of us have seen 31 before. It’s the talk of the town among realtors,” said Albrecht.

He said he couldn’t disclose the selling price because the property was in probate, which would have to be cleared before the sale could be finalized.

Not mentioned in that article is the fact that the asking price on that property was $30,000 under assessed, but still that’s a lot of bids.

Is the Globe and Mail trolling you?

Monday, January 19th, 2015

Many Franks pointed out what has to be the most bizarre ‘financial facelift’ feature yet over at the Globe and Mail.

You think you have money troubles? Look at these poor people!

[Eric] earns $200,000 a year working one day a week in a medical clinic. But his real love is teaching, which he does one day a week at a university; this earns him $100,000 a year.

WHAT?!

“It is financially possible for them to do the things that are important to them, although by doing so, they will run a cash flow deficit of $50,000 a year until the children leave home,” Mr. MacKenzie says. Over time, their annual deficits will add up to more than $1-million in additional debt.

WHAT?!

They are living rent free in a relative’s house (they pay taxes, utilities and upkeep) and “regret not having bought a house years ago,” Eric writes in an e-mail.

WHAT?!

Eric and Ilsa are fortunate because their parents are willing to put a home equity line of credit on their own home to extend them the $1-million they need to build, and to finance their annual deficit, the planner notes.

WHAT?!

 

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