Skook wrote in to let us know of updates to the Sunshine Coast / Bowen island stats.
I’ve added more posts to my stats blog. I have the Bowen Island September 2016 stats up. As well, I uploaded 3 Sunshine Coast December 2015 stats posts as well as a SC 2015 Sales Summary post. I’ll start uploading the SC 2016 stats as soon as I can.
Do you feel like someone should have warned you that Vancouver real estate sales slumped dramatically in September? Well now you have been.
VANCOUVER — Real estate agents say home sales continued to fall dramatically in the Vancouver area last month and even hit a 10-year low in some neighbourhoods.
Agents say the high-end detached home market is seeing the most substantial losses, while the condominium and townhome market remains active.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, which covers a large swath of Metro Vancouver but excludes several large suburbs including Surrey, is set to release its home sales data for the month of September tomorrow.
Read the full article over at the Vancouver Sun.
So are we ‘world class’ yet?
Despite not making it onto lists of the worlds most economically powerful cities, Vancouver is finally being compared to London, Stockholm & New York and we come out on top!
Swiss bank UBS has named Vancouver the city with the worlds riskiest housing bubble:
UBS said Vancouver prices were unaffected by the financial crisis in 2008 and continue to rise despite weakening commodity prices.
“Over the last two years, the housing market has gone into overdrive due to strong demand for local properties among foreign investors and a loose monetary policy,” the report said.
“Currently, house prices in Vancouver seem clearly out of step with economic fundamentals, and are in bubble risk territory.”
Hot on the heels of Vancouver are London and the Swedish capital, Stockholm. The report stated that, with the exception of Milan, low interest rates in the euro zone have pushed all the European cities reviewed into bubble territory.
Read the full article over at CNBC.
There seems to be a shift if then Vancouver real estate market lately and that has some people excited about a potential return to sanity, but we’ve seen versions of this story before. BearVancouverite shares some thoughts on why they remain ‘cautiously optimistic’ and a question about the future:
Some posters here are counting their chickens before they hatch. I’m with Ulsterman in being cautiously optimistic.
We all need some perspective here:
1) Total inventory is still below 10k. In previous years even 15k+ inventory saw a mostly sellers market.
2) The superb chart that Brian Ripley posted shows that the purple dots are leveling off, at an absorption level ABOVE 2015 and 2014 still. I hope this continues to drop.
3) News reports show that condos are still selling at a decent pace
4) Even a 50% drop in Summer 2016 listing prices only resets prices to maybe 2013 levels. Most houses I see listed in Killarney for instance are as of yesterday listing for $2.2-2.8M. Going down from there to $1.1-1.4M is still above what almost every bear here was willing to pay in 2010.
Here’s my question, and I honestly want to know because I’m trying to figure out at what point I should seriously consider buying. If there’s a 50% drop, and a Killarney 120 year old near teardown is selling for $1.2M, how many of the prominent bears here (including vangrl, yvr, Hamster, BPOM, LS in Arbutus, and UBC in crisis) would recommend a friend to buy at that point?
Btw as a counterpoint to my above caution, here’s my personal observations:
1) I’m seeing a lot of Killarney listings SFH come up now. Far more than I noticed throughout summer.
2) In general I’m seeing more 3BR+ listings per day than during summer, although there’s still very little coming up.
3) I’m seeing a lot of higher quality SFH being listed. Eg not just teardowns
4) Some of the listings I see have descriptions which include the realtor saying “lived in by long term owner” or “for sale by original owner” or “owner of 40 years” etc. So just observationally some of the inventory coming online is from locals finally willing to sell.
Paul Boenisch has been posting daily market updates here consistently for years. This gives us an interesting day by day view of the market.
Autumn means more listings, so far sales have to catch up.
Yesterday Pauls numbers show 307 new listings and 68 sold with a total inventory of 9728.