In Canada ‘middle class’ currently seems to mean ‘deep in debt’ and rate hikes are a looming threat on the middle class :
For one view of Canada’s rate hike, consider the case of David and Neera. He can’t get a raise, is worried about retirement and they borrowed money a couple years ago to fix the roof. Interest costs will jump now, with vacations and kids’ clothes already out of reach.
Justin Trudeau’s entire economic agenda is aimed at David and Neera — we know, because he invented them. Their story anchored the Liberal government’s debut budget, tying together the impact of all the prime minister’s measures. Now they’re a cautionary tale.
“Canadian families are also taking on more debt to make ends meet,” the 2016 budget said. “For David and Neera, this debt is a constant source of worry.”
Read the full article over that the Financial Post.
YVR pointed out this article by Rob Mclister about the OSFI B-20 bombshell:
The new OSFI’s stress test rules will make 20% of the mortgage market not qualify or they will have to reduce their mortgage by 18% to qualify. That is before recent and future mortgage rate increases are factored in.
Roughly 80% of new big bank lending in the richly valued Toronto and Vancouver markets is low-ratio mortgage lending
OSFI’s stress test, as proposed, would slash buying power for prime buyers by roughly 18%
For non-prime borrowers, qualifying rates would immediately rocket into the 6% to 7% range
Read the full article here.
With interest rates going up there’s good news and bad news for housing. It can make it tough for people who are stretched thin financially, but might be good news for people waiting to buy:
The people who will benefit are those who have a nest egg and have been waiting for the right time to buy a home, he said.
“The real winner here is somebody sitting on a $800,000 down payment who says I’m going to wait for prices to fall.”
Overall, interest rates will continue to rise, added Brander. He predicts mortgage-lending rates could increase by several percentage points in the coming years. But as long as those increases are incremental, like Wednesday’s announcement, the economy will be able to absorb it, he said.
Seems like it’s always a good time to be sitting on an $800k down payment, but maybe we’re just optimists. Read the full article here.
Lots of key indicators are telling the Bank of Canada that it’s time for an interest rate hike.
After the survey’s release, the chance of a July rate hike rose to 84 per cent from about 70 per cent, according to Bloomberg. Nine of 16 economists polled by Bloomberg now expect the central bank to raise rates to 0.75 per cent in July from the current 0.5 per cent.
The survey is one of the key pieces of information that Mr. Poloz and his central bank colleagues use to set monetary policy.
It was conducted between early May and early June, just before Mr. Poloz and his deputies started publicly saying the economy has turned the corner from the devastating oil price collapse that began in 2014.
Read the full article here.
Poloz is hinting that rate hikes are coming and thats pushing the Canadian dollar up a bit:
The Canadian dollar climbed to a four-month high of 76.44 cents US after Poloz’s comments, which fed speculation about a rate increase as early as its next scheduled announcement in two weeks. The boost lifted the loonie from an average price of 75.83 cents US on Tuesday.
If the central bank increases its key rate, the big Canadian banks are expected to raise their prime rates, driving up the cost of variable rate mortgages, other loans and lines of credit tied to the benchmark rate.
Poloz credited the two rate cuts introduced by the bank in 2015 for helping the economy counteract the effects of the oil-price slump, which began in late 2014. The reductions also helped increase the speed of the adjustment, Poloz added.
“It does look as though those cuts have done their job,” said Poloz, who was in Portugal on Wednesday to participate in a forum hosted by the European Central Bank.
“But we’re just approaching a new interest rate decision so I don’t want to prejudge. But certainly we need to be at least considering that whole situation now that the capacity, excess capacity, is being used up steadily.”
Read the full article over at the Financial Post.