It’s been so long since rates were rising we’ve forgotten what it’s like, and yet it seems the tide is turning. Southseacompany points out this article over at the Financial Post: Three rate hikes this year?
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates on Wednesday, surprising many, and left the door open to more rate hikes in 2017 even as it pledged to pay attention to how higher borrowing costs would hit Canada’s indebted households.
To find out what a bunch of economists think, read the full article here.
Southseacompany linked to this article forcasting the effect of new mortgage rules:
“In the year of implementation, we estimate that this new rule could depress demand by 5% to 10%, and shave 2% to 4% off of our current forecast for the average price level in 2018,” the authors said, as the proposed measures will act as another force that limits price growth in the future.
Those consumers, who often have as little as five per cent down, must qualify based on the posted five-year rate of the Bank of Canada, which is currently 4.84 per cent.
The economists suggest changes to tighten the rules on non-insured mortgages will lead buyers to “come up with a bigger down payment, opt for a lower priced home and scale back other debt,” and may even delay purchases all together.
Read the full article here.
Pointed out by SouthSeaCompany: Mortgage rule changes are cooling housing market: Morneau
“Finance Minister Bill Morneau says last October’s sweeping mortgage rule changes aimed at cooling Canada’s housing market have successfully dampened high-risk borrowing.”
“But despite a report urging Ottawa to look at ways of boosting support for Canadians entering the housing market, the Minister ruled out any new measures along those lines, expressing concern that such an approach would encourage higher house prices.”
Read the full article over at the Globe and Mail.
New mortgage insurance rules are having an impact over at Genworth:
Genworth MI Canada Inc., which provides mortgage insurance for home buyers and financial institutions, said the total value of new insurance it wrote in the second quarter of 2017 was down 81 per cent to $6.1-billion from $31.7-billion in the same period last year.
Most of the decline was the result of a 96-per-cent drop in the value of portfolio insurance written in the quarter, which is bulk insurance bought by financial institutions for their portfolios of uninsured mortgages. New portfolio insurance fell to $1.1-billion from $25.9-billion in the second quarter last year.
Read the full article here.
In Canada ‘middle class’ currently seems to mean ‘deep in debt’ and rate hikes are a looming threat on the middle class :
For one view of Canada’s rate hike, consider the case of David and Neera. He can’t get a raise, is worried about retirement and they borrowed money a couple years ago to fix the roof. Interest costs will jump now, with vacations and kids’ clothes already out of reach.
Justin Trudeau’s entire economic agenda is aimed at David and Neera — we know, because he invented them. Their story anchored the Liberal government’s debut budget, tying together the impact of all the prime minister’s measures. Now they’re a cautionary tale.
“Canadian families are also taking on more debt to make ends meet,” the 2016 budget said. “For David and Neera, this debt is a constant source of worry.”
Read the full article over that the Financial Post.