Vancouver Condo Info

Over at the Financial Post there’s an editorial that’s pessimistic about the Canadian real estate market:

The arithmetic is simple, and some of the warning signals look uncomfortably like those of the days before the market implosion that brought the 1980s to a thumping, crashing close.

Start with resale home prices. A “matched sales” approach to measuring prices tracks, over time, multiple sales of the same properties — this reduces the likelihood of measurements getting skewed by cyclical or regional shifts in the price mixes of homes that happen to be selling. Over the past ten years, prices so measured, in Canada’s major markets, have doubled, increasing at more than 7% per year, at a time when consumer price inflation generally had been running at about 2%.

So why is that a problem? Because average wages have not been running much ahead of inflation, and that means that house prices have steadily been bubbling out of reach of workers’ abilities to afford them. The house price-to-income ratio last peaked and then plummeted from 1989 to 1991, and the ratio regained its prior peak in 2004-05. Since then? It has climbed steadily higher yet, the ratio now far outstripping anything seen in the past 20 years.

Eventually that makes housing affordability a problem, and quickly so when interest rates start to rise. Housing looks affordable now, given that mortgages remain on the market at rates near their all-time lows. However, carrying costs relative to income would rocket upward, were rates one or two percentage points higher. Such rate increases are not in the cards in Canada today — but they will arrive all the same, and sooner rather than later if inflation continues to test the upper bound of its target range, as it did through 2011.

Read the full article here.

This post was submitted by Karl Marx Carney.

A very sensible forecast from Tsur Sommerville:

“We start off by saying I have no idea,” Somerville told the Georgia Straight in a phone interview. For him, forecasting is a risky business because “you’re wrong more often, even if you’re intelligent”.

An economist who earned his PhD from Harvard University, Somerville said that he prefers to evaluate what others have projected for the new year.

“The general trend seems to be that it’s going to be a slower market than 2011, and I think the combination of lingering economic unease and uncertainty is consistent with that,” the UBC academic explained. “The other thing is 2011—if you take away Richmond, the West Side [of Vancouver], and West Vancouver—was not some amazing prices-going-through-the-ceiling kind of year. In general for most places, things are going to look like 2011. Maybe a little bit slower.”

Asked about the biggest risk to the market, Somerville responded: “The economy, the economy, and the economy.”

Full article in the Georgia Straight.

This post was submitted by Karl Marx Carney.

Here’s David Chilton on using home equity as a substitute for retirement savings:

There are too many risks associated with real estate — even in pricey markets like Vancouver — to justify making it the sole element of a retirement plan, the author and personal finance expert says.

“I don’t like it as a strategy at all because what happens is that anytime you have that kind of exponential rise in real estate it almost always ends up going the other way,” says Chilton. His latest book, The Wealthy Barber Returns, was released in September.

“It may not happen here because there’s so much foreign money coming in. But the potential for a significant pullback is still there.”

House price increases even in super-heated markets are likely to become more muted as the tailwind generated by rock-bottom interest rates eases, he says.

Did I just enter Bizzaro World? Aren’t ‘super heated’ markets often at a greater risk of a pullback?

This post was submitted by Scott.

Do echo boomers have different attitudes towards home ownership than generations that came before them?

The lack of assets isn’t the only encumbrance to housing: Echo Boomers value education, people and leisure more than other American generations. Of the Echo Boomers I spoke with, 13% were homeowners, yet less than a third reported interest in owning a home someday (with female Echo Boomers wanting homes more than male Echo Boomers). They preferred graduate degrees, living in social areas (not suburbs) and freedom instead of homeownership. A few of these Echo Boomers will need a decade to pay off their student loans after which another large loan, like a mortgage, might lack appeal.

From Forbes.

This post was submitted by Kingston.

The CEO of TD bank has said in an interview that he thinks the government should make mortgage rules stricter.

Mr. Clark believes cutting the maximum length on federally insured mortgages to 25 years, from 30 years, would be a good step to slow rising household debt, which hit a new record this week, surpassing that of the United States and Britain.

“If you thought the Canadian economy was strong enough to take another adjustment, then we would say take the 30 [year amortization limit] down to 25 and get this back to where it originally was,” Mr. Clark told The Globe and Mail.

“It’s hard to know whether the economy can take another crank like that,” he said, referring to Ottawa’s last round of changes. “But my own gut would tell me that it may turn out that we do have the absorption capacity.”

Now why would a bank that spends tonnes of money on advertising mortgages and essentially makes risk-free income on insured mortgages want the government to tighten up the rules? Could they be seeing consumer debt levels starting to pose a risk to uninsured loans?

This post was submitted by Eddie.

Chilled wrote the following in this weekends thread:

Condo Boom?

I live in a high end New West condo that is approximately 3yrs old. They have recently had another major ‘flood.’ Fortunately I live on a floor well above the high water mark and my unit hasn’t suffered damage. Damages has been extensive. Being a renter I am not privy to the strata minutes, but I have had discussions with strata members and believe my information to be accurate.

“Defective expansion joints” are blowing out, causing main water lines to let go. Yikes!!! The strata has posted notices that “faulty expansion joints” are going to all be replaced.

Faulty? Yeah sure, probably installed by a “plumbers apprentice” without enough experience supervised by a journeyman who is hardly competent himself. As a tradesman myself, expansion joints just don’t ‘fail.’ Especially at an alarming rate and if they did, wouldn’t this be going on everywhere the product was installed leading to a subsequent recall?

Anyway, get this;

-the developer is the property management company
-the engineering company works for the developer
-the mechanical contractor works for the developer

Strata members tell me it is “warranty” but when I query them on who pays for the cleanup and restoration costs I’m told they are “not sure yet.” Basically, this will cost the strata hugh one way or the other.

Hey, any of the strata members reading this will recognize the building so read this carefully;

-call in a mechanical consulting engineer specializing in piping. You will have to bring someone in from out of province, maybe Alberta. The old boys club in Vancouver will prevent independent and impartial analysis
-FIRE the development company acting as the strata property management company. Do you see a conflict here as the building inches through the warranty period?
-take the engineering report to a legal firm willing to take the developer to task on this
-pursue the same avenue with all the other problems in the building. It is not normal to have the elevator service company on site as much as the mail man.

Finally, please stop telling us renters in the elevator “I wish I rent like you” as I know you drank the koolaid and made stupid decisions that will cost you for the rest of your lives.

But if you do happen to see the owner of my unit at an emergency strata meeting, please thank him for what is a huge rental subsidy.

Sign me,

Happily above the high tide mark.

This post was submitted by Kingston.

If you recently bought a condo in Vancouver this probably isn’t what you want to hear, but let’s just think about this situation realistically. Let’s pretend we get the ‘perfect’ scenario of constantly rising house prices. A young couple buys a condo to get on the property ladder and plans on starting a family and moving up to a larger home in a few years. When it’s time to sell, it’s a jackpot! Their condo has increased by $100 grand and they magically find a buyer at that price right away..

but wait. That home they wanted to buy is up $200 grand. Better hope their income has been increasing a lot faster than everyone else.

And that’s in the magic ‘balanced’ scenario where homes and condos increase at roughly the same percentage year over year. For a while here in Vancouver, house prices have lept up while condos have been mostly flat. The hypothetical move-up buyer is even more screwed.

Maybe it’s time to get some smaller furniture and turn the ‘den’ into a babies room, since we don’t seem to build many large family size apartments in Vancouver. It’s either houses or ‘junior’ one bedrooms with little in between.

Constantly increasing house prices means you only win if you sell and get out of town or sell and rent. The move-up buyer is screwed.

This post was submitted by John.

Interesting article over at the National Post on the ‘different here‘ argument.

If the Canadian housing market were to collapse, Canadian taxpayers would be hit hard. The federal government is fully liable for any losses incurred by the CMHC, which currently backs somewhere in the order of $600-billion worth of mortgages. It has been bailed-out by the government twice in the past.

The government needs to act quickly to remove the factors that are causing the market to expand so rapidly, as well as to disperse the risk across the financial system. The CMHC should be privatized, much like the Australians successfully did in 1997. Banks and insurance companies should be allowed to do what they do best — assess risk, without standards being forced upon them by government bureaucrats. Doing so would not only spread the risk throughout the financial system and protect taxpayers, it would also reduce the likelihood of Canada experiencing a U.S.-style housing crisis.

One candidate in the upcoming election is focusing on the issue of house prices in Vancouver. Independent Sandy Garossino thinks that Foreign buyers are driving up Vancouver property prices and pushing out young families.

Garossino said that if the average median income in Metro Vancouver is $67,500 and the average price of a house in Vancouver stays at around $800,000, then it’s locals who will be forced out.

Garossino said she knows placing ownership restrictions is not an easy solution and that there are complex and sensitive issues involved. Still, she said, local affordability needs to be addressed.

“This is such a concern to me. Where are families going to raise their children?”

Garossino says other cities facing similar problems have have workable solutions.

“Singapore has zoning requirements that allow certain areas to be freely available to the international investor and other areas are only available to domestic buyers.”

Two Mayoral candidates seem to have noticed that this issue is getting attention and added their own thoughts. Gregor Robertson sort of thinks it might be an issue, but see’s the next couple of years as the time to look at the problem and figure out what to do about it.

Gregor Robertson told CBC News Sunday that the city needs to understand the role foreign ownership is playing before taking any steps to change it.

“I see these next couple years as assessing what the problem is, how significant it is, and what best tools are that might address it,” Robertson said.

Suzanne Anton believes that people shouldn’t have to leave Vancouver to buy a home, but doesn’t think foreign buyers are the problem. Dave Anton says the solution is to cut development costs so that builders can pass on the savings to buyers.

“Market-based solutions to housing supply are the only effective means of creating real affordability,” Anton said.

“Everything else is a gimmick.”

This post was submitted by Drippytown.

If you live in and around Vancouver you probably know its election time. Voting day is on the 19th.

This is an open topic political thread. Who do you feel is best suited to lead this city and why?