Category Archives: predictions

Covid 19: Lasting economic damage

Canadas top central banker says there will be lasting economic damage due to the Covid-19 pandemic with a “prolonged and bumpy” path to recovery.

In his first speech as governor, Tiff Macklem says the central bank expects to see growth in the third quarter of this year as people are called back to work and households resume some of their normal activities as restrictions ease.

But he warns that Canadians shouldn’t expect the short and sharp economic bounce-back expected over the coming months to last.

The combination of uneven reopenings across provinces and industries, the unknown course of consumer confidence, and unemployment rates will “likely inflict some lasting damage to demand and supply,” Macklem says in a speech Monday.

He said ongoing physical distancing rules may mean workplaces can’t be as productive as they once were, adding that many services will remain difficult to deliver.

Not everybody’s job will come back.

CMHC: Pandemic will affect housing market until 2022

They expect a 25% drop in some regions:

Canada’s national housing agency says the number of new homes being built and sold will remain below the levels they were at before COVID-19 until 2022 at least, and prices won’t get back to where they were for another two years either.

In a special report, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said Wednesday that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a “historic recession in 2020,” which will lead to “significant falls in indicators of the housing market.”

Just like the flu, but more so!

Welcome to the terrible blog

Yeah, so you probably noticed the spam filter collapsed and just nuked everyone – we’ve switched that over and we’ll see if the new one works or not.

As far as news goes we seem to be in a holding pattern. Covid 19 has knocked out the market for listings and sales but we’re not seeing a big impact on prices yet with less moving.

How do you think this thing is going to pan out? Bounce back or bust?

Slowdown to affect Real Estate Sales

We’re living in interesting time. Interest rates are super-low and going lower which should drive down the cost of a mortgage, but at the same time we have a very unusual economic slowdown across the board.

Some people even thing this could have an effect on the Vancouver real estate market:

” Interest-rate drops usually fuel housing sales, but this time they will be more than offset by the “unprecedented paralysis of economic and social activity” during the COVID-19 pandemic, causing B.C. homes sales to drop this spring, the B.C. Real Estate Association predicted March 17.”

“All four scenarios predicted home sales in the province would drop in the spring and early summer. The market would then likely rebound in the second half of the year “contingent on the outbreak resolving.” However, only one of the scenarios found that home sales in the province would recover to a point of activity higher than if there had been no pandemic, with the other three forecasting a more muted recovery”

read the full article here.