Archive for the ‘predictions’ Category

Time for another recession?

Tuesday, June 30th, 2015

It seems like it was just a few years ago we had a recession, could it really be time for another already?

The Canadian economy has now contracted four months in a row and if that trend continues will Poloz have to cut rates again?

Economists have already written off the first half the year, but something better was still expected for April.

This also brings into question the outlook that had been painted by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz.

A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, meaning May and June will have to be stronger to avert that in Canada.

Even if the May showing is flat, said Andrew Grantham of CIBC World Markets, there could still be a “modest negative” for the second quarter.

“It probably already feels like a recession for people in Alberta and Saskatchewan,” he said.

Read the full article here.

House-poor Canadians

Thursday, May 28th, 2015

Southseacompany pointed out this article.  Seems like the more valuable our real estate gets the more house-poor Canadians become.

“Campbell says that many, like Edgerton and Camus, are surviving now, but the big question is what happens if there’s an unplanned setback — from a job loss to a rise in interest rates.”

“”If the housing market goes down and those individuals have to sell, we’re going to see a lot of houses on the market, which will further reduce the house market in general,”

‘Canada has among the highest home ownership rates in the world; owning a home is one of the ultimate Canadian dreams. And it’s perhaps why so many people choose to live house poor rather than sell their home.”

Read the full article at the CBC.

Bob Rennie urges Vancouverites to give up

Wednesday, May 20th, 2015

The owner of a condo marketing company in Vancouver is urging young families to give up on the dream of a single family home and embrace density.

According to Rennie, whose company was involved in high-profile projects like Vancouver’s Olympic Village and the redevelopment of the historic Woodward’s building, planners need to create a lot of density at once in order to drive down prices.

“I know nobody wants to hear that, but unless we’re going to take a big broad brush stroke and add a lot of density, we’re in trouble,” he said.

Read the original article over at the CBC.

Let the grandkids solve the TFSA problem.

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2015

If you’re someone who has your money somewhere other than Vancouver real estate you’re probably familiar with the TFSA.  And you probably know the limit has just been doubled to $10k a year.

Critics say this move only helps the wealthy and creates a future tax problem.

Joe Oliver says we should leave that problem for the PMs grand-daughter to solve.

On Tuesday’s The Exchange with Amanda Lang on CBC News Network, the finance minister told Lang that criticism of his recently unveiled budget is unfounded, arguing that the benefits for Canadians today more than offset any future revenue problems associated with it that may or may not ever come to pass.

The doubling of the TFSA limit to $10,000 per taxpayer every year was a core plank of Oliver’s balanced budget. But critics including the opposition parties and private sector economists have said the populist move will create a revenue problem for governments down the line, as more and more investments get protected from taxation.

So what do you think about the TFSA limit increase? A tool only for the wealthy or a bit of extra help for savers?

No More Hospital in Downtown Vancouver?

Monday, April 13th, 2015

A couple of weeks ago VCI commenter Corrupt in Canada linked to a story over at VanCityBuzz reporting that BC NDP MLA Spencer Chandra-Herbert was upset the provincial government was on the verge of reneging its promise to revitalize and expand St. Paul’s Hospital.

Three years ago Premiere Christy Clark pledged half a billion dollars to improve the hospital, but nothing has been done to this date.

In the original article VanCity Buzz reached out to the BC Ministry of Health who had this response:

Government remains firmly committed to revitalizing St. Paul’s Hospital. St. Paul’s Hospital is an important part of the network of hospitals in the Lower Mainland, serving a large and growing population from downtown Vancouver, and from across the region. We are continuing to work with Providence Healthcare on the best way to revitalize the hospital for the communities it serves. We must make sure that this fits within the future long term vision of health care in the region and across the province, focusing on more comprehensive community services and a partnership between Lower Mainland hospitals.

We must also ensure that St. Paul’s Hospital can continue to serve the community while the revitalization project is underway.

So we know that most of you will be utterly surprised that Providence Health Care just announced that St. Paul’s will be closed and a new facility will be built in East Van.

Shocked even!

The west end MLA took his disappointment over this announcement to twitter:

St. Paul’s Hospital proved it’s worth during the Stanley Cup riots. Viaduct, bridges, + Skytrain all closed. No way out of downtown. downtown Vancouver needs an emergency room, especially in an emergency. In an earthquake all exits out of downtown may be closed.

Of course there may be a much better use of the land the current hospital sits upon: CONDOS!

Plus new hospital in East Van just has to drive up property values there right?

Win-win.

 

Where’d yo job go? Build or perish.

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

Good news!

There was a big jump in full time jobs in February!

The bad news?

Some people think this is ‘unsustainable‘ because most of the jobs were in construction or ‘public sector’ and the recent drop in oil prices may have an effect on these parts of the economy.

Screenshot 2015-03-29 18.03.24

 

But in the meanwhile if you’re looking for work and want to know who’s hiring find your nearest construction pit or government office.

Read the original article over at wolfstreet.

About that BOC / IMF conspiracy…

Monday, March 23rd, 2015

Now normally when you hear about a conspiracy lawsuit against the Bank of Canada, the International Monetary Fund and the Queen of England you would assume Lizard People are involved right?

But in this case the government has already exhausted all but one chance to have the case thrown out and their last chance expires in the next week.

Is it possible the tin foil hats might have something here? Certainly it helps that their lawyer has a history of winning unlikely cases.

So what’s it all about?  Here’s what the Epoch Times says:

Toronto-based COMER and its fellow plaintiffs Ann Emmett and William Krehm are suing over fundamental changes to the Bank of Canada’s role that were made in 1974 when the bank stopped making loans to the government.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) was founded in the Great Depression and played a major role loaning money to the government. It helped finance Canada’s war effort during World War II and could loan money to the government, without interest, if it chose to do so. Any profits the BoC made were returned to the government minus the Bank’s operating expenses. That last point remains the case today, with $1.7 billion sent to the Receiver General annually.

COMER alleges that by no longer providing these loans, the Bank and others named in the suit have forced the government to finance budget deficits by borrowing from private markets and paying hundreds of billions of dollars in interest. Last year, $28 billion—over 10 percent of the federal government’s $277 billion in expenditures—went to servicing the debt.

That’s more than what was spent on National Defence ($21.5 billion) and nearly as much as the Canada health transfer ($30.5 billion).

The Bank of Canada Act allows, or as COMER alleges—requires—the BoC to give the federal government loans up to a total value of one-third of the government’s predicted annual revenues. For provincial governments it is a quarter of those revenues. The loans have to be repaid within the first quarter of the next fiscal year. At that point, the government just needs to pay back the loan with incoming revenues, and take out another loan to make up any deficit.

So in essence, unless our translator has the lizard people language interpretation incorrect, this case is about the national debt and the Bank of Canada’s failure to loan money to the Government of Canada for free.

What do you think? Lizard People are coming to eat your children of something is going to change?

Read the full article here.

Are you ready for higher interest rates?

Tuesday, January 27th, 2015

That seems like a really weird question as rates continue to drop.

But over at the Vancouver Sun, Barbara Yaffe says ‘Prepare now for interest rate shock‘.

On top of the Bank of Canada recent surprise .25% rate cut there are a number of people predicting another cut coming this year, so why worry about interest rates at all?

The size of the average mortgage on a dwelling in Greater Vancouver is $400,000, reports Jeff Johnson, mortgage broker at Cloverdale-based Dominion Lending Centres Canadian Mortgage Experts, with offices in B.C. and Alberta.

That jumbo figure is based on the average 2014 value of a Vancouver property, $801,000, and a Canadian Association of Mortgage Professionals survey last year showing the average equity position assumed by borrowers is 50 per cent.

Johnson notes that if interest rates rise in 2015 by even just half a percentage point, monthly payments on a typical variable rate $400,000 mortgage could increase by $100 to $1,872.

“And this is the best case scenario, as rates could continue to slowly increase (thereafter).”

Elyea points out such increases would be coming on top of 2015 hikes imposed on B.C. residents for MSP premiums, car insurance and BC Hydro.

And it is worth remembering British Columbians have more modest employment earnings than elsewhere in Canada. The B.C. average weekly wage last year was about $890, compared to $940 across Canada.

Ok, sure. But we know all that already. How long have we been hearing the warnings about ‘being ready’ for rate increases while they just stay down at record lows or continue to drop?

It’s like that old story ‘The Boy who cried Wolf’.  Eventually the villagers get sick of hearing all the false warnings, learn to ignore them and live happily ever after.

RBC first to cut mortgage rate

Monday, January 26th, 2015

Last week when the Bank of Canada announced their surprise rate cut none of the big banks seemed to be in a rush to announce lower lending rates on mortgages.

We asked which will be the first lender to lower mortgage rates and now we have the answer:

RBC is the first to cut mortgage rates as bond yields plunge.

Royal Bank, the country’s second-biggest lender by assets, offered a five-year fixed rate of 2.84 per cent on Jan. 24, down from 2.94 per cent last week, according to rate-tracking website Ratespy.com. That’s below RBC’s posted rate of 4.84 per cent. The bank also trimmed its three-, seven-, and 10-year rates, according to CanadianMortgageTrends.com, an industry news website.

Race to the bottom or just a good time to renew?

BOC chops rate in race for bottom

Wednesday, January 21st, 2015

If you’ll recall you’ve been warned many times by a number of government talking heads that rates could go up at any time.

Today the Bank of Canada finally took action and cut rates by a quarter from 1% to 0.75%.

Speaking to reporters, Mr. Poloz said the oil price drop is “unambiguously bad” for the Canadian economy, prompting the bank to take out what he called an “insurance policy” against future risks, such as weak inflation and a household debt squeeze. But he denied the move was calculated to send the Canadian dollar lower.

“Market consequences will be what they are,” he said.

The rate cut sent the loonie plummeting below 81 cents (U.S.).

Mr. Poloz, who acknowledged that oil dominated the bank’s discussions leading up to Wednesday’s rate decision, said he’s ready to cut rates again if prices fall further.

“The world changes fast and if it changes again, we have room to take out more insurance,” he said.

The rate move, which few analysts anticipated, is an attempt by Mr. Poloz to shield highly indebted Canadian households from an oil-induced hit to their jobs and incomes – signs of which are already evident in Alberta.

In the comments section here, Dave asked the question: How much of the BC economy is tied to Oil and Alberta?

I would like to know how much of a hit the damage to Alberta will be to BC. It seems to me that everybody underestimates the economic impact. I think our statistics don’t capture the role of Alberta in our economy. I think I read that Westjet estimated 5,000 people in the Okanagan work in the oil patch. And that’s just them trying to estimate things for their benefit (i.e. people who buy plane tickets). How many work from home on their computers? Or only make a few trips per year and don’t get picked up the radar? How many work in the Okanagan but for companies that service the oil patch? Add it all up and there is a LOT of employment related to Alberta.

 

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