Category Archives: predictions

BIS warns on interest rates

From southseacompany: another warning about rates knocking back growth.

“The world has become so used to cheap credit that higher interest rates could derail the global economic recovery, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.”

“After cutting interest rates to all-time lows and pumping trillions of dollars into markets to boost growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, central banks are now preparing to tighten their monetary policies.”

“All this underlines how much asset prices appear to depend on the very low bond yields that have prevailed for so long.”

Read the full article here.

The Triple Rate Hike Year

It’s been so long since rates were rising we’ve forgotten what it’s like, and yet it seems the tide is turning. Southseacompany points out this article over at the Financial Post: Three rate hikes this year?

The Bank of Canada raised interest rates on Wednesday, surprising many, and left the door open to more rate hikes in 2017 even as it pledged to pay attention to how higher borrowing costs would hit Canada’s indebted households.

To find out what a bunch of economists think, read the full article here.

New mortgage rules to further cut demand

Southseacompany linked to this article forcasting the effect of new mortgage rules:

“In the year of implementation, we estimate that this new rule could depress demand by 5% to 10%, and shave 2% to 4% off of our current forecast for the average price level in 2018,” the authors said, as the proposed measures will act as another force that limits price growth in the future.

Those consumers, who often have as little as five per cent down, must qualify based on the posted five-year rate of the Bank of Canada, which is currently 4.84 per cent.

The economists suggest changes to tighten the rules on non-insured mortgages will lead buyers to “come up with a bigger down payment, opt for a lower priced home and scale back other debt,” and may even delay purchases all together.

Read the full article here.

CMHC keeps crying ‘Wolf’

The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation keeps on giving the national real estate market it’s worst possible rating. You can probably guess which cities get singled out as the most at risk:

CMHC’s valuation is part of its quarterly Housing Market Assessment, something the Crown corporation calls an early warning system, alerting Canadians to areas of concern developing in housing markets so that they may take action in a way that promotes market stability.

In terms of the 15 individual markets studied, CMHC said it saw strong evidence of overall problematic conditions in Victoria, Vancouver, Saskatoon, Hamilton and Toronto – the same five markets singled out a quarter ago.

CMHC defines problematic conditions as imbalances in the housing market that occur when overbuilding, overvaluation, overheating and price acceleration, or combinations of those issues exceed historical norms.

Read the full article here.

Sales slow, but what about prices?

An article over at the province says that real estate sales in Vancouver and Toronto have slowed, but don’t expect prices to follow:

“We’ll still have very lofty prices in Toronto and Vancouver. If we’re expecting the market to become instantly affordable that’s not going to happen. Given the low interest rates and rapid population inflow, they will still be expensive markets but we’re moving away, thankfully, from the days where there was incredible pressure for buyers to get in before prices grew another 40 per cent,” Bank of Montreal senior economist Douglas Porter said.

read the full article here.