Category Archives: predictions

Schiller: That old 2006 mentality

Southseacompany points out that the economist Robert Schiller has some thoughts on the economy and a bit of history repeating:

“Housing is driven by narratives. Before 2007, the narrative was flipping houses [and the belief that] home prices have always gone up,” the Yale economist said during an interview with Yahoo Finance’s YFi PM. “Then, after the Great Recession, it was tragic narratives about people who lost their home, or dangers of borrowing too much or lending too much. It’s been 10 years since the crisis. Now, those narratives are starting to be forgotten.”

Read the full article here.

Next price uptick in 2021?

Central 1 credit union is forecasting further big drops in sales and a “marshmallow soft” market for the next few years.

The province’s median home resale price across the year is expected to decline 4.1 per cent in 2019, then a further 1.2 per cent in 2020. This will be followed by the most meagre of recoveries in 2021 with a 1 per cent rise, which doesn’t even bring the median back to 2019 prices.

The biggest short- to medium-term price declines are expected, unsurprisingly, in Metro Vancouver, said Yu – but this could be what puts the market back on track in the longer term.

“In Metro Vancouver, on a benchmark basis, prices are down around eight per cent and we’re expecting that to fall further, giving us a total peak-to-trough decline of about 12 to 15 per cent. So that will erase a lot of the gains we saw from 2016 onwards. But this should pull some people back into the market.

Read the full article here.

Greater Vancouver has best month for home sales since 1986

Best if you’re hoping for price drops on real estate that is.

We dont have official numbers for March yet, but realtor Steve Saretsky says that we just saw the lowest March sales numbers since 1986:

Saretsky said prices are in fact taking a dip, however the slide isn’t evenly distributed.

“You know you can probably get a 40 per cent discount at a house in West Vancouver, but you might only get a 15 per cent discount on a house in East Vancouver.”

He added that condo sales also saw an 18-year low last month.

Of course he did say this on April 1st. Read the full article here.

A plan to not help affordability

southseacompany points out this article about Finance minister Bill Morneaus plan to ‘help‘ homebuyers.

“One of the things Finance Minister Bill Morneau did in the budget on Tuesday was to take steps to fix Canada’s home ownership problem. But who told him Canada has a homeownership problem?” 

“Homeownership rates in Canada are among the highest in the developed world. Even among young people, homeownership rates are high compared to our peers with more than 40 per cent of households led by people under 35 owning homes. And yes, even in Toronto and Vancouver, homeownership rates are high relative to those cities’ global peers.”

Read the full article here.

Mortgage brokers stuck in the middle

Mortgage brokers make their money by getting people mortgages. In a softening market this can present a challenge.

FICOM is the agency that regulates mortgage brokers and they are issuing a warning:

Brokers should not overleverage their clients; this may be done by fudging applications – overstating the income of a borrower to obtain a bigger loan (and hence a bigger commission), said Carter, who also warned brokers of working with unregistered fixers.

Carter told brokers in Vancouver that the days of “how to get to yes” are over with new market uncertainty, and slumping sales and prices. Now, brokers need to be extra vigilant and learn “when to say no.”

He said Canadians could be in for a rude awakening if real estate prices fall and they’re still saddled with big mortgages and even loans against their equity, suggested Carter. And the brokers who brought loans to those homebuyers will face extra scrutiny, he said, which is why he’s calling on the industry to ease back the throttle on new mortgages that may be contrary to the best interests of the public.

Read the full article here.