Category Archives: rates

Interest rates shoot higher

Southseacompany pointed out this article about rising interest rates around the world:

The bond market is getting a wake-up call from global central banks that the post-financial crisis era of easy money and super low interest rates is coming to an end.

In what was a sizzling move for the Treasury market, the 10-year yield zipped higher Tuesday amid talk that the Bank of Japan could finally be ready to wind down its easy policies. The 10-year yield broke above the key 2.50 percent level and was trading as high as 2.55 percent, the highest since March.

The 10-year is key since it is a benchmark that mortgages and many other consumer and business loans are based on.

Read the full article here.

Tougher to get a mortgage in 2018

In the new year we’ll see a ‘stress test‘ added to all new uninsured mortgages, are you ready for that?

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), Canada’s banking regulator, confirmed earlier today that there will now be a qualifying “stress test” for all uninsured mortgages, affecting consumers with downpayments of 20 percent or more.

Under current housing rules, only borrowers with a downpayment of less than 20 percent require mortgage insurance. This category of borrowers are already subject to a mortgage “stress test” that was introduced back in July 2016, amidst concerns about rising household indebtedness.

Right now, if you’re applying for a mortgage with a downpayment of 20 percent or more, the lender will assess if your financial situation is robust enough to afford a five-year mortgage qualifying rate, which currently sits in the range of 4.64 to 4.89 percent.

Under the new rules, OSFI will require that lenders use that same five-year mortgage rate plus two percent — essentially you’ll need to have income that qualifies you to afford an interest rate on a home loan of roughly seven percent.

Dave Madani says this is equivalent to a 17% reduction in the maximum mortgage people will be able to qualify for. Read the full article over at Vice.

Rate hikes in 2018

Southseacompany points out this article in the Financial Post warning of ‘three or more‘ rate hikes next year.

Investors are assigning a 20 per cent chance of an increase at the decision Wednesday, with a statement to be released at 10 a.m. Ottawa time. Only four of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect Poloz to increase his 1 per cent benchmark rate, with all major Canadian banks expecting a pause.

Central bank policy makers — who raised borrowing costs for the first time in seven years in July and September — are handling the normalization of policy very carefully. By their own measure, interest rates are still a full 2 percentage points below what they would consider “neutral” but the Bank of Canada is wary of raising borrowing costs too quickly for fear of inadvertently triggering another downturn.

Read the full article here.

Mortgage carrying costs to rise 8% next year

Scotiabank is forecasting a big bump in mortgage carrying costs:

New buyers can expect home ownership to become even less affordable next year as mortgage costs rise, while current owners will be largely insulated from higher rates.

Add it all up, and the bank forecasts that Canada’s housing market seems to have “peaked” and is expected to cool down from its recent breathtaking pace.

Read the full article here.

BIS warns on interest rates

From southseacompany: another warning about rates knocking back growth.

“The world has become so used to cheap credit that higher interest rates could derail the global economic recovery, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.”

“After cutting interest rates to all-time lows and pumping trillions of dollars into markets to boost growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, central banks are now preparing to tighten their monetary policies.”

“All this underlines how much asset prices appear to depend on the very low bond yields that have prevailed for so long.”

Read the full article here.