Category Archives: rates

Business is ready for a rate hike

Lots of key indicators are telling the Bank of Canada that it’s time for an interest rate hike.

After the survey’s release, the chance of a July rate hike rose to 84 per cent from about 70 per cent, according to Bloomberg. Nine of 16 economists polled by Bloomberg now expect the central bank to raise rates to 0.75 per cent in July from the current 0.5 per cent.

The survey is one of the key pieces of information that Mr. Poloz and his central bank colleagues use to set monetary policy.

It was conducted between early May and early June, just before Mr. Poloz and his deputies started publicly saying the economy has turned the corner from the devastating oil price collapse that began in 2014.

Read the full article here.

Canadian dollar rises on rate hike expectation

Poloz is hinting that rate hikes are coming and thats pushing the Canadian dollar up a bit:

The Canadian dollar climbed to a four-month high of 76.44 cents US after Poloz’s comments, which fed speculation about a rate increase as early as its next scheduled announcement in two weeks. The boost lifted the loonie from an average price of 75.83 cents US on Tuesday.

If the central bank increases its key rate, the big Canadian banks are expected to raise their prime rates, driving up the cost of variable rate mortgages, other loans and lines of credit tied to the benchmark rate.

Poloz credited the two rate cuts introduced by the bank in 2015 for helping the economy counteract the effects of the oil-price slump, which began in late 2014. The reductions also helped increase the speed of the adjustment, Poloz added.

“It does look as though those cuts have done their job,” said Poloz, who was in Portugal on Wednesday to participate in a forum hosted by the European Central Bank.

“But we’re just approaching a new interest rate decision so I don’t want to prejudge. But certainly we need to be at least considering that whole situation now that the capacity, excess capacity, is being used up steadily.”

Read the full article over at the Financial Post.

Low interest rates have done their job.

Southseacompany pointed out this article where Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is reported to have said that low interest rates have done their job.

So what exactly was the job of low interest rates?

Three years ago the BOC was issuing warnings that real estate in Canada was as much as 30% overvalued in some markets and posed a threat to the financial system.

How’s that concern looking these days ?

Bank of Canada concerned about debt and housing market

The Bank of Canada is still worried about housing debt levels in Canada and joins the OECD in expressing that concern:

The two biggest concerns on the bank’s radar are also intertwined. It said the growth in mortgage lending in Toronto and Vancouver has largely fuelled an increase in Canada’s overall household indebtedness since the bank’s last review six months ago.

“Highly indebted households have less flexibility to deal with sudden changes in their income,” said the bank.

“As the number of these households grows, it is more likely that adverse economic shocks to households would significantly affect the economy and the financial system.”

The document was released as concerns about the Canadian real estate market — domestically and from abroad — continue to pile up.

Read the full article over at the Financial Post.

the $200 margin of error

This is hard to believe, but apparently more than half of all Canadians are just $200 away from not being able to pay their bills.

“With such a small amount of wiggle room, any kind of unanticipated hardship, such as a job loss or even a car repair, could send an already struggling family into financial despair,” said Grant Bazian, president of MNP’s personal insolvency practice, which is one of the largest in Canada.

For 10 per cent of Canadians, the margin of error when it comes to household finances is even thinner, at $100 or less.

But those with anything at all left at the end of the month were in better shape than many: A whopping 31 per cent of respondents said they already don’t make enough to meet all their financial obligations.

Then there’s this little detail:

Another hair-raising finding from the survey: Roughly 60 per cent said they don’t have a firm grasp of how interest rates affect debt repayments.

The statistic helps explain why many indebted Canadians end up taking on more debt and high-cost loans, said Bazian. “That’s how so many end up in an endless cycle of debt,” he noted.

Shouldn’t be a problem, interest rates are low forever now aren’t they?

Read the full article over at Global News.