It’s looking like lending for real estate is going to get a bit more pricy as Ottawa tightens rules and seeks to offload some risk. Many lenders in this Globe and Mail article feel blindsided by the change and complain that it’s unfair as they will not be able to compete with the banks:
Non-bank lenders left reeling by new federal mortgage rules
The new rules kick in November 30th after which lenders will not be able to insure mortgages with amortization beyond 25 years or on homes over $1million or rental properties. I guess we’re about to find out the price of risk in these no longer covered categories.
Vancouver home sales have plunged by about a third in the last month or so, this been largely blamed on the foreign buyer tax.
But that tax focused on the city of Vancouver isn’t the only change to the real estate market, new rules and changes have the potential to affect the wider region and the nation as a whole. Southseacompany posted this summary from a Globe and Mail article in the comments:
“Four major changes to Canada’s housing rules”, Globe & Mail
1. Expanding a mortgage rate stress test to all insured mortgages.
2. As of Nov. 30, the government will impose new restrictions on when it will provide insurance for low-ratio mortgages.
3. New reporting rules for the primary residence capital gains exemption.
4. The government is launching consultations on lender risk sharing.
As Canadian Mortgage Trends puts it, is this the last nail in the coffin?
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Good news for your monday morning!
If Canada saw a ‘US-style housing crisis‘ the big 6 banks could generate enough capital in a few quarters to cover losses.
If Canada were to experience a U.S.-style housing crisis, with house prices falling by up to 35 per cent, mortgage lenders including the country’s big six banks could lose nearly $12 billion, according to a new report from Moody’s Investors Service.
CMHC would also take a hit of about $6 billion if they challenge and reject claims, but if they decided not to they would take about half the loss as it would be more evenly split between the banks and CMHC.
You probably don’t have to worry about a US-style nationwide housing crash, because we have a different mortgage market that is explicitly backed by the government. The main concern would be rate increases and job losses as Canadian debt loads continue to increase:
There was almost $1.6 trillion in mortgage debt outstanding at the end of March, including home equity lines of credit, more than double the amount outstanding 10 years ago.
Read the full article over at the Financial Post.
Canada’s housing market is overheating.
Don’t worry, there’s no risk of a crash yet and further action by the federal government is expect to cool things down.
This according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Emanuella Enenajor.
And, perhaps more importantly, she noted that “it’s different this time” because the Federal Reserve is in the midst of gradually raising interest rates.
“Economists and investors have become numb to signs of housing excess, as the sector has defied gravity for years,” Ms. Enenajor said.
“However, as the Fed gradually exits its accommodative policy, medium-term rates in Canada could also rise.”
This, she warned, heightens the threat of a correction in Canada’s housing market.
Read the full article over at the Globe and Mail.
Mark Carney (why does that name sound familiar?), The Current Head of the Bank of England is speaking out against negative interest rates.
While defending ‘monetary stimulus’ he points out that negative interest rates haven’t done much to improve economies and is instead a game of hot potato where everyone loses:
So negative interest rates are effective in only one way: via the exchange rate – or as he says, “via beggar-thy-neighbor” – which might be “an attractive route to boost activity” for an individual country. “But for the world as a whole,” this “transfer of demand weakness elsewhere is ultimately a zero sum game.
Read the full article over at business insider.