Vancouver Condo Info

Deflate.  That’s the word the Vancouver Sun is using in their report of July sales data from the REBGV:

The so-called benchmark price for all property types in Metro, excluding Surrey, hit $556,605 in July, down 2.1 per cent from May.

“We’re seeing more price reductions in properties listed on the market, which is a levelling impact on the housing price increases experienced at the end of last year and into the first quarter of 2008,” Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said in a news release.

The numbers from out in the Fraser valley are in as well and looking at least as bad. The Surrey average detached-home sale price is down six percent from June.  As Mohican brings to our attention Chilliwack saw the average house sales price drop 9 percent last month and is now negative year-over-year.

This is a pass-off post to Paul Boenisch at nvcondos.ca who has just posted some dramatic month-end June stats on his blog.

If you haven’t seen these numbers yet, or if you have any doubt that the Lower Mainland real estate market is undergoing a dramatic shift, check them out now.  Supply continues to grow while sales keep dropping.

Here are a few highlights:

Sales down 41% from June 2007
Inventory up 53% from last year
North Vancouver inventory up 113%

Check out Paul’s blog for all these stats and more graphed out for some dramatic visuals.

So far prices haven’t been impacted much at all, but increasing supply and decreasing demand will put pressure there unless this dramatic shift reverses soon.  Could we be in danger of tracking the US market?

Umdesch4 posted this updated REBGV inventory chart this weekend, showing the dramatic listings activity we’re seeing this spring in Vancouver. That purple line shows how inventory is building beyond levels seen at any point in the last few years.

The monthly inventory graph comes from Paul Boenisch, who shares monthly inventory graphs for the entire REBGV and sub areas. This graph has been updated to the 15th of May based on the daily stats Paul makes available on his website. Pauls blog is here.

February saw a large number of listings and prices edge up yet again in Vancouver. Overall listings are up 26.2% compared to last February and sales are down 6.4%. The REBGV benchmark price for a single family home in Vancouver is now up to $761,342. The Townhouse benchmark price is $472.147 while the Condo benchmark is $387,032.

Get all the stats broken down by sub-area at Paul Boenisch’s site.

This certainly is an interesting market and one thing so far is true - it really is different here. A year ago other western markets were chugging along with Vancouver, but some of our neighbors are seeing some changes. Calgary, Victoria and Seattle markets have shown some weakness lately and even closer in its possible that the western blessing is fading. North Vancouver has seen a 2.38% price drop in the SFH benchmark and the Fraser Valley is looking less robust these days as well. Keep an eye on Mohicans blog for Fraser Valley analysis (not up at time of this posting)

There has been some news lately of fewer Canadians and fewer BC residents planning to buy in the next few years. Will this along with rising listings translate into downward pressure on prices as it has in other countries?

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The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) benchmark price for a home in Vancouver edged up in the first month of 2008 - the new benchmark prices are as follows:

Single Family Home:  $742,490 (+ $12,091)
Attached / Townhouse:  $462,627  (+ $5,686)
Apartment / Condo:   $378,336 (+ $757)

Full stats are available from Paul Boenisch at nvcondos.ca.

In the Fraser Valley prices are down in many areas compared to December 2007, but still up year over year.  An increase in listings has pushed the Fraser Valley into a ‘buyers market’ according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.  Detailed analysis of the Fraser Valley market can be found at the Financial Planning and Personal Sanity blog.

So far the Vancouver real estate market has been remarkably resilient - recession fears, a writers strike, complaints about affordability and markets dropping around the world have not dampened speculation in the Vancouver market.  Will we see a change in 2008 or can we expect to see higher prices in the next 12 months?

Paul has given us a gift that keeps on giving with his new web site. If you haven’t seen it yet do yourself a favor and check it out - there’s an incredible treasure trove of information he’s made available including up to date statistics on details like average selling prices and days on market. He’s also sharing inventory charts for all sub-areas of Greater Vancouver going back 3 years. This will be an ideal resource for watching the market in detail. Go check it out and say hello on his new blog.

WTF? We had great volume in July, lots of sales, but the benchmark house price didn’t go up at all. In fact at a benchmark price of $714,810 detached houses actually lost $905 in the month, hardly enough to get excited about, but shouldn’t prices be going up in a hot hot market?

Those at the lower end are still doing their part: Condos are up a healthy $4k from the previous month, while townhouses are up $5k, so what happened to the houses?

One more step up the mountain - the Benchmark price for a detached home in Vancouver hit $715,715 last month according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Here’s my standard short term graph, we’re one month short of a year on it:

Townhomes and apartments were up as well - according to the REBGV this was the “second best June on record”. The attached benchmark hit $443,060 while the benchmark condo now goes for $360,469:

Last year prices saw a high point hit in September - Where will this years peak be?

Thanks to Agent Will for the stats package.

Wow. Just wow. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver just released their benchmark stats for May 2007 and prices are up again - a record price of $711,245 for the detached benchmark. Have we attained the least affordable city in North America status yet?

And Condos and Townhomes? Also up:

Now who says thats a bubble?

Stats from agentwill who adds “I have no idea when this will end. All I know is that despite so much logic against these rising prics, well, it ain’t ending.”

Freako added some quick numbers in a previous post that I’m going to repost here:

“Based on the latest ING rates and 20% down, that results in payments of $3,536.29 before taxes, maintenance or repairs.”

“How is this remotely possible? i punched the the mortgage amount into ING’s “how much can I borrow calculator”, and the required income is $143,000. What percentile of households earn that?”

..and to round this post up reductimat sends in this link to a scotiabank study that forsees a slowing in the Canadian Housing market, but ‘certainly not a bust’.

There’s an interesting article in The Star about discount brokers in the real estate business and the impact they may have on the cost of buying and selling.

While other industries, such as travel agents and stock brokerages, have gone the discount route, the real estate industry has largely held steadfast.

Realtors have been successful at holding their commissions at a standard 5 per cent in recent years, although that is already down from 6 per cent a decade or more ago.

But in a market where homes are selling in record numbers and at record prices, some consumers are wondering why commissions are still so high in the real estate business.

They also mention the Competition bureaus investigation of the Canadian Real Estate Association:

The Canadian Competition Bureau, meanwhile, is investigating the Canadian Real Estate Association to see if the CREA’s guidelines discourage discount brokerage houses from using the Multiple Listing Service, which the association owns.

CREA officials say they are simply protecting their trademark.

I’ve noticed a lot of discount broker signs on condos recently, I wonder how much of an impact they are having here in Vancouver. As the article points out - in a hot market it may be easy to sell through a discount broker, but what happens when the market slows?

So what do you think- Are discount brokers the way of the future and would you feel comfortable using them to sell a property in a slower market?