Is the market picking up after last years slide?
Troll shared these numbers in the previous thread:
Here’s some facts for the navel gazers to vote down:
Apr 1-15: 115 sales/day
Apr 16-30: 127 sales/day
May 1-8: 137 sales/day
Sales are strengthening during a time that they usually begin to fall off. MOI is also falling. Like it or not bears, this market is beginning to show some signs of strength. Not so simple to just dismiss as a bull trap.
Then frank pointed out we’re still pretty high on the inventory front:
Here’s VMD‘s interpretation of the trend:
Been on vacay in remote areas without internet..
to further Troll #103′s stats:
So far in May: 137/d vs 133 (2012) vs 160 (2011)
Apr 16-30: 127 (2013) vs 140 (2012) vs 159 (2011)
Apr 01-15: 115 (2013) vs 154 (2012) vs 147 (2011)
Look at May vs Apr sales in last few years:
2012: 2853 2011: 3377 2010: 3156 2009: 3524
The statement that “Sales are strengthening during a time that they usually begin to fall off” is incorrect. Sales almost always fall off in June (except 2009), not May.
and here’s Trolls response to that:
I don’t like using monthly numbers because they are skewed by the number of business days, one or two extra days can skew the numbers. I think a better measure is sales/day. For example you show increasing sales for 2012 from April to May, but if you break it down by sales per day, you get the following:
Apr. 1-15: 154 sales/day
Apr. 16-30: 144 sales/day
May 1-8: 133 sales/day
Falling just as I said.
So what do you think? Are we seeing enough of a trend reversal yet to say the market is strengthening or is it a normal spring bump on a long hill down?