This list of commissions for The Brook in North Vancouver is courtesty of thinktom over at Real Estate Talks:
This is a new building with an open house every Saturday and Sunday. You can call them to book a viewing appoint at other times OR you could pay a 3rd party salesman $50 – $100k to show you the unit. Perhaps they’ll even drive you there in the new Porsche.
TD Bank is the most recent pessimistic soothsayer when it comes to the Canadian housing market, with a prediction of falling house prices in 2011.
While income and employment seems to be recovering quickly from the recession, the number of listings to hit the market and the number of new housing starts has caught the bank by surprise. It had previously expected prices to gain 1.6 per cent in 2011 in inflation adjusted terms, the bank now is calling for a 2.7-per-cent drop.
Ontario and British Columbia are expected to bear the brunt of the decline, seeing their markets drop 3.4 per cent and 3 per cent respectively.
Ah! They’ve been paying attention to listings growth. Don’t they know that just means more options for buyers and that makes it a great time to buy?
If listings were floors in a building Spectrum would be the tallest building in Downtown Vancouver. This infographic shows an imaginary skyline based on number of units for sale in a few of the new buildings downtown based on Supersogs post from Monday.
Lots of properties out there for sale, not just in the downtown core. Listings for the entire REBGV region have been accelerating lately a lot faster than they did in previous spring markets. We’re close to adding 1000 new listings a week. Even the spring before the 2009 market dip didn’t see listing rise this fast. As of last night the inventory count was at 16,741.
Well, April 19th is here and as most of you already know that means the new CMHC mortgage rules are now in effect and we’re about to see how fragile the Vancouver real estate market is at this price level.
We’ve talked a lot around here about the new rules and how they’ll affect interest rate approvals and how suite income is calculated, but there’s one aspect of the new rules that I haven’t seen anyone here mention until now. Paulb points out this lawyers bulletin that addresses the potential effect these new rules will have on presales. This is well worth the read, and the HST will only magnify these effects.
They point out some basic math in that PDF – a presales buyer of a $500k condo will now have to come up with an extra $30k in cash at closing to bridge the gap between what lenders will now finance. With a 15% market drop (remember a year ago?) that becomes an extra $93,000 in cash the buyer will have to come up with to bridge the gap.
It’s starting to look like the Vancouver presales condo is about to turn from moneymaker to albatross. We got a preview of that during the last minicrash when developers started suing buyers who tried to get out of their contracts. We may see a return to the bad old days sooner rather than later, particularly for those investors who rely on faith as the largest component of their investment strategy.
It also looks like today will coincidentally be the day we get our 16,000th place put up for sale.
Wow, it was just six days ago that we had a 15k party in the forum to welcome the fifteen-thousandth property available for sale in the REBGV area, and now I see that we’re already closing in on 16,000 listings.
We’ve got two regular posters here who have been providing regular updates so data addicts can watch the listings grow through the day, let’s hear it for paulb and inventory! As of the end of Wednesday listings sat at 15,789.
At this rate there’s a possibility that we’ll add more than 2000 listings in the month of April, despite a healthy number of sales. We’ve already surpassed the supply available at this point in the last five years. The only year that listings growth looked anything like this was during the micro-crash of 2008 where prices bottomed out at a 10-15% loss and have since recovered.
It looks like many people think that right now is a good time to cash in that million-dollar property. Please no pushing or shoving, we are civilized people. Head to the exits in an orderly manner, there are plenty of lifeboats for everyone.
March saw listings grow like crazy and April started off with a bang adding close to 500 listings on April 1st alone. The growth in inventory is being mirrored by a growing number of people who appear to be seeking out more information on a Vancouver housing bubble – traffic on this blog has nearly doubled in the last couple of months.
The following comment was posted just before the weekend by GregK71 regarding the growing number of bullish comments here and on other blogs. I suspect it may sum up the way many readers feel about the current state of the Vancouver real estate market and its likely future:
The bulls on this and other RE blogs absolutely see the writing on the wall going into Q3 and Q4 2010, and beyond. They’re not blind. Arrogant, yes. Foolish, perhaps. Blind, no.
Oddly enough for a group of people apparently content and smug in their asset class, bulls never turn down the chance for a satisfying faeces toss on blogs like VCI. They’re coming here to convince themselves to keep on believing house prices only ever go up. And it’s worked like a charm.
Now, although it doesn’t always seem to come across in their posts, bulls understand market forces. They’ve made money in RE. Big money. Like bears, bulls too sense danger. In their gut, bulls comprehend irrational exuberance. Heck, they’re the ones who’re listing their presales and resales en masse, soon to push listings onward to 25,000 and beyond.
Bulls know this thing’s running on fumes. Bulls know the time is short. Bulls know there’s no such thing as running out of land when you can build up. They know these things.
They also know the Kool-aid is starting to taste a bit, um, funny.
Vancouver bulls, you’ve had an amazing run. You’ve defied the fundamentals for longer than many thought humanely or economically possible. It’s been unreal. It’s been absurd.
To those of you over-leveraged on severely overpriced Vancouver real estate: relish these final few weeks on the upside. You may have a month and a half.
But the tipping point is here. It’s visible. It’s shocking. And it can’t be put off with another rate cut, loosened restriction, extended am or exotic mortgage product. That deck is exhausted.
The process just getting started ends only with utter revulsion and complete contempt for the asset class. Needless to say: it’s going to be a long, long way down.
The Average selling price of a home in Vancouver BC has reached a new record high. When inflation is factored in prices are actually higher than they were in 2008, meaning buyers from two years ago who have no transaction or carrying costs are well on the road to riches.
All sectors of the housing market are up; from single family homes, to townhouses, condos, semi-detached, yurts and drainage ditches. The average price of a parking spot on leased land in downtown Vancouver has reached a new record shattering high of $87,983,223,431.32 imaginary moon dollars.
Even with the recent run-up this still represents tremendous value as the average spot size is large enough to hold a 1972 VW campervan AND a 10 speed Norco mountain bike.
The beginning of the month saw growing inventory as sales lagged, but emergency sales during the final hour of the month have reduced available sales inventory in the REBGV area to 4 units and a rusted out 50 gallon oil barrel, all of which are located in Whalley. The remaining inventory is currently being fought over by thousands of wealthy South American investors who are visiting the area in anticipation of a UFC truck and tractor pull, tentatively scheduled for May.
In a surprise move early this morning Bank of Carney Minister Finance Flaherty announced the repeal of all mortgage limits currently in place for CMHC insured mortgages and a new set of guidelines. “if it feels good, do it. That’s pretty much our motto.” Flaherty said as he scratched at his beard with fingers caked in bright orange Cheetos dust.
Starting April 17, all applications for CMHC insured mortgages will be automatically approved unless the home buyer has proof of income. The Government of BC also announced new homeowner grants which will see all homeowners receive a monthly cheque for $8,000 to help compensate for the dramatic difference between rental value and purchasing costs. Interest rates have been reduced to -.5% effective immediately.
Here’s an interesting quote from Kamloops-North Thompson MLA Terry Lake about the economic benefits of hosting the winter games:
“Already we know that real-estate in Vancouver went up shortly after the Olympics from people that had visited the area,”
Is there a word missing here? Did buildings actually elevate into the air due to some anti-gravity effect that visitors had, or are we referring to a specific aspect of the real estate market.. Prices? Interest? Sales? Listings?
Yep, one of those went up.
There was a crowd outside the sales office at Pulse in Kitsilano this weekend, unfortunately many off them were migrant workers claiming they’ve not been paid for their construction work on that condominium.
The shirts were emblazoned with messages denouncing Bastion Development Corporation and its contractor HDM Hudson Enterprises for what the workers claimed is nonpayment of wages owed to 17 workers, not following basic labour laws, and failing to produce proper employee records.
…
RDM Hudson could not be reached by The Vancouver Sun, however, Kim Maust, a vice-president of Bastion, said her company paid its contractor in full and has no involvement in the workers’ unpaid wages claim.
She said Bastion paid RDM Hudson a lump sum to perform finishing work such as painting and following that Bastion has no responsibility for what is alleged to have happened after.
“We’ve paid out the contractor,” she said.
Full article in the Vancouver Sun.
Its March 18th and inventory numbers for real estate listings in the REBGV greater Vancouver area just rolled over the 14k barrier. People are talking about this milestone in the forum and drawing comparisons to 2008 which was the last dramatic -though brief- market correction.
Inventory is now 14,027 and growing at a faster rate than it was then, with interest rates at record lows and forecast to rise soon. On March 15th 2008 inventory was at 12,482 and grew to reach 12,851 by April 1st 2008. Listings continued to grow through that year until they reached a high of 20,542 on October 15th.
