Category Archives: supply

Lots of new condos coming

They aren’t making any more land, but they are making more condos.  Lots more condos.

Real estate market team MPC Intelligence started tracking new condo projects in Vancouver in 2005.

They just recorded the busiest six months on record for announced new concrete condo projects.

This despite a recent slow down in the presales market.

A new wave of projects is expected in the fall.

Hancock said the pace of pre-sales has slowed in the last two months, but he expects a “large wave” of new launches in the fall.

Hancock attributes the slowdown to developers postponing projects because of market conditions, and some projects being delayed in the approvals process.

He said projects priced right and in the right location — near rapid transit — are doing well, citing strong sales at the Solo District condo project in Burnaby that started pre-sales this past weekend.

Hancock noted that 55 per cent of the concrete condos introduced to the market this year have been sold, with most sales in the first quarter and “the second quarter showing slower uptake.”

He also said it’s “too early to tell” if the slowing resale market is a factor in developers delaying projects.

The presales market can’t be doing too bad when we have big projects like Marine Gateway selling out in 4 hours.  The odd thing is some people are reporting seeing bus ads for this development.

Why spend money advertising something that isn’t for sale anymore? Can anyone confirm these ads?

The good news is they have a plan to deal with the smell.

 

 

Buyers market is a silly way to put it

What does ‘Buyers market’ mean to you?

Is it a market in which the buyer has lots of choice or gets a reasonable price?

..because they aren’t the same thing.

Now that prices are dropping from their record highs on Vancouver real estate, we’re seeing the term ‘buyers market’ bandied about in the media a lot.  And with a huge number of places for sale and actual transactions falling to a 10 year low there’s lots of choice.

But prices are still near record highs!

Real estate is a slow illiquid market, it takes LOTS of time for trends to move through.  Just take a look at the USA, there are some people thinking they’ve hit bottom in some markets after SIX YEARS of falling prices.  Don’t expect deals within a few months, or even a few years.

Real estate marketers will use the term ‘buyers market’ a lot in the coming years, because they make money off transactions.  If it’s not a good time to sell it must be a good time to buy right?

There is one nice thing happening with the shift in the local market though: the Vancouver Sun is starting to publish a bit more variety when it comes to RE market opinion:

Investors in stocks wouldn’t consider a drop in volume to be a buyer’s market in the absence of price changes. The adage that volume precedes price instructs investors to be patient. There’s no compelling reason for real estate buyers to act differently.

Bravo Vancouver Sun, Bravo.

Thanks for the housing market data!

Hey all, This is my first submission, mostly I lurk in the forum but read this site daily.

I just want to send out a big thank you to everyone who shares otherwise unavailable Vancouver housing market data here.

Watching the stats roll in day after day has been fascinating.

It’s amazing to watch the market change day by day, and the aggregate data provides an even clearer picture.

First of all of course there’s Paulb who’s been providing daily numbers for a long while.  It’s thanks to Paul that we see the daily number of new listings, sold properties and have a total inventory count.  Pauls website is here.

Then there’s VHB, who consistently posts analysis tracking the numbers through the month.  Here’s his most recent post.

We have a new commenter going by the name of HFHC who has been providing other great stats including listing data for the entire lower mainland and a break down of sales by category.

Then there’s Inventory, who’s provided excellent number breakdowns for specific markets as seen in yesterdays post about the low June sales numbers.

And of course everyone else who provides such amazing data, analysis and comments.  I started listing your handles, but the list went on and on and I knew I’d leave out some the best so I’m opting to just send out a big general thanks to ALL of you, you’re amazing.

Keep posting!

-kray

Detached home sales collapse in June

Wow.

It looks like the number of detached home sales in a number of lower mainland areas are coming in very low for June this year.

It’s useful to look at what sales looked like in June 2012 compared with the last many years.

Fortunately Inventory posted a bunch of month-end stats showing exactly that this weekend.

Here’s Richmond, which saw an all-time low number of sales of detached homes:

Continue reading Detached home sales collapse in June

Condo holes across Vancouver

Much has been made about the huge number of condo towers under construction in Toronto, but here in much tinier Vancouver we’re not doing so bad.

There are currently 16 towers in progress and 67 more in the works.

With population growth and prices on the retreat will there be enough buyers for all these new units or are we over-saturating the condo market?

Cameron Muir says don’t worry:

“Prices have been pretty flat since 2009,” Muir said. “There’s ample supply in the market place, but we are seeing prices at a steady pace.”

The fact more condos than single-detached homes are being built in Greater Vancouver is nothing new, said Muir, as condo starts have consistently made up about 75 per cent of all housing starts in the last several years. “It’s a function of land supply.”

Consumer demand during the last several months is trending on a 10 to 15 year average, he added.
One indicator, says Muir, of the demand-and-supply balance in the marketplace is the sales-to-new-listings ratio.

In Vancouver last month, the ratio, at 15.3 per cent, inched closer to a buyer’s market – but sits within the balanced range of between 15 to 20 per cent.

There hasn’t been a sustained buyer’s market since the recession hit, between late 2008 to early 2009.

..And of course it’s starting to smell like 08/09 again with the Eurocrisis and global economic sluggishness, but is it different this time?

Here’s one thing that’s different: Out in Burnaby yet another condo presale had a lineup, but what a waste of time for the participants according to VMD:

re: polygon’s “MODA” presale in Burnaby that opened today, with some people camping since Monday…

sold today: 138
total units: 249
ratio: 55%

yawn.

Wow. Can you imagine waiting in line for a week for something that sells only 55% of inventory?

Fizzle.