http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/tags/poll Lower Mainland housing and economic issues. en-US Wed, 08 Feb 2012 13:58:24 +0000 http://bbpress.org/?v=1.0.2 q http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/search.php http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-835 Wed, 08 Sep 2010 08:51:52 +0000 bearishbull 835@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>I see biflation in the US with a real possibility of hyperinflation.</p> <p>1) The smart money is actually starting to short US bonds. Apart from Pimco and the banks who's buying them? Not China anymore...</p> <p>2) THe US cannot continue to roll its debt with more debt indefinitely and definitely not at 2.5% for a 10 year treasury. </p> <p>So when the shit hits the fan and US Treasuries are dumped the US dollar will tank. If you see a spike in commodities the same day as a significant drop in the US dollar index then you know something big is afoot.</p> <p>At the same time, I beleive we will continue to see deflation in the US housing market because we haven't gone below the trendline for home prices yet. </p> <p>Also in Canada I expect the Bank of Canada to print more money to keep our loonie "competitive" with the tanking US dollar. This will also lead to bond rates increasing in Canada which will lead to 7% 5 year mortgages again. </p> <p>Gold is in a bubble and will continue to be as will silver. Buy it now not because it has intrinsic value but only because there will be greater fools buying it in the future. Also vs. real estate I think it is a great trade right now. Sell you Vancouver real estate and buy some physical gold / silver and buy agricultural land in the valley if you find a deal. Not because it's going to be the end of the world and you'll need to grow your own food, no. Buy farmland simply because food is going to get more expensive.</p> <p>Biflation.</p> <p>More expensive food and energy (inflation). Less expensive homes and a general unwind in debt stemming from foreclosures (deflation). Salaries flat or at least well below inflation. Unemployment stagnant or getting worse.</p> <p>That's how I see things. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-828 Sat, 04 Sep 2010 12:44:07 +0000 vibe 828@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Update</p> <p> [attachment=828,84] </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-827 Sat, 04 Sep 2010 12:32:43 +0000 VHB 827@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Yes TD, I meant to type DEFLATION not INFLATION. The goldbugs out there are getting foamy at the mouths telling us this is the calm before the storm. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-826 Sat, 04 Sep 2010 12:21:21 +0000 Tony Danza 826@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p><em>I'd like all of your comments on what would happen to Canadian real estate if the US (NOT Canada) experienced a hyperinflationay event next year. </em></p> <p>How about your comment on what to expect if the deflationary forces at work in the US continue or worsen for the next 5 to 10 years?</p> <p>The story is DEFLATION, there is no inflation and definitely no hyperinflation on the horizon for the US or Canada. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-824 Fri, 03 Sep 2010 15:02:12 +0000 VHB 824@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>"I'd like all of your comments on what would happen to Canadian real estate if the US (NOT Canada) experienced a hyperinflationay event next year. "</p> <p>Why on earth would you expect a hyperinflationary event next year. Excuse my french, but that is pretty much impossible. We are threatened with inflation, not hyperinflation. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-822 Fri, 03 Sep 2010 10:13:14 +0000 bearishbull 822@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Total inventory down to 15962. </p> <p>We know sales have dropped off a cliff so the good news is that the inventory number is falling because people are taking their properties off market.</p> <p>The bad news is that they can afford to. As long as variable rates don't rise people who have locked into a variable or even have an open mortgage will feel no pressure to sell.</p> <p>5 year rates have dropped back down to 3.79% which I really don't understand, because this time the Federal government is not buying the crappy mortgages off of the banks. I know the bond market dictates fixed rates indirectly, but I'm surprised the Canadian banks are not charging a higher premium in light of all the risk factors.</p> <p>I'd like all of your comments on what would happen to Canadian real estate if the US (NOT Canada) experienced a hyperinflationay event next year. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-798 Mon, 23 Aug 2010 09:51:42 +0000 bearishbull 798@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Total inventory of 16937 for the REBGV area.</p> <p>Revised total sales in July is 2158.</p> <p>7.8 months of inventory based on July sales.</p> <p>Sales August 1st to August 14th = 555</p> <p>About 400 Days of inventory. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-707 Fri, 30 Jul 2010 16:07:16 +0000 vibe 707@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>update</p> <p> [attachment=707,82] </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-681 Fri, 23 Jul 2010 11:34:04 +0000 bearishbull 681@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Its true. The good news is total sales for July in REBGV was 2444. That gives us over 7 months of inventory so the big picture is still bearish. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-678 Thu, 22 Jul 2010 12:31:03 +0000 vibe 678@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Based on bearishbull&#39;s latest update:</p> <p> [attachment=678,81] </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-673 Wed, 21 Jul 2010 15:36:24 +0000 jesse 673@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>It's worth considering how much inventory needs to be wiped off before prices will stop falling (let alone go up). It's looking like August and the rest of the year will be lackluster for sales. To stave off further price drops, inventory will need to drop by around 40% to bring MOI below 6 again unless sales start picking up pronto. Not necessarily impossible but who knows. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-672 Wed, 21 Jul 2010 13:33:22 +0000 bearishbull 672@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Bad news for us bears today.</p> <p>Total inventory back below 18k.</p> <p>Total inventory for REBGV (evereything in all areas) = 17989. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-635 Fri, 09 Jul 2010 16:40:53 +0000 vibe 635@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Update</p> <p> [attachment=635,79] </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-615 Mon, 05 Jul 2010 09:35:20 +0000 jesse 615@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>@bearishbull: Good news! 18K party tonight! </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-614 Mon, 05 Jul 2010 09:30:45 +0000 bearishbull 614@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Some bad news today. Total inventory in the REBGV region is only 17949. I was shocked to see that after expiries we're below 18k again.</p> <p>I still hope we have our 19k party this month. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-599 Wed, 30 Jun 2010 09:38:14 +0000 VHB 599@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Here is my projection for MOI for the rest of the year. This is a fairly conservative projection. If we had higher interest rates, a double dip recession, another financial crisis, a china bubble burst, or whatever, things would look worse than this. </p> <p>In the table below are my projections for inventory and for sales. I compared the annual patterns of inventory and sales to previous years and made a wild-@ssed guess. The &#39;avg&#39; column is the 2006-2009 average for monthly sales.</p> <p> INVTY AVG Sales PROJ Sales PROJ MOI<br /> June 18,500 3,720 3000 6.2<br /> July 18,500 3,223 2500 7.4<br /> August 19,000 2,848 2400 7.9<br /> September 20,000 2,654 2300 8.7<br /> October 21,000 2,705 2300 9.1<br /> November 19,500 2,300 2000 9.8<br /> December 15,000 1,756 1500 10.0</p> <p>Here is the MOI in a chart.</p> <p> [attachment=599,76] </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-558 Mon, 21 Jun 2010 06:50:13 +0000 jesse 558@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>@patriotz: one beats the HST on legal and Realtor fees. Not huge $ for many but, depending on how leveraged buyers are, that's enough to make a difference. I agree, though, I think the HST is a whole lot of nothing when it comes to prices for a long while and could even be net positive once the dust settles. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-557 Mon, 21 Jun 2010 05:19:10 +0000 patriotz 557@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p><blockquote>You're disappointing me Vibe... I have my fingers crossed it's just flattening because lots of people are out to beat the HST</blockquote></p> <p>Out to beat a tax that does not apply to resale properties (which are the vast majority of listings) and thus will require the prices of new properties to adjust downward.</p> <p>Yes that's consistent with the logic that buyers have been showing. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/5#post-556 Sun, 20 Jun 2010 21:58:46 +0000 vibe 556@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Hey, don't shoot the messenger...and if you do then don't forget the numbers are actually coming from Inventory and PaulB. &lt;img src=&quot;http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/my-plugins/bb-smilies/default/icon_wink.gif&quot; title=&quot;:wink:&quot; class=&quot;bb_smilies&quot; /&gt; </p> <p>But let's not forget that 2008 had some pretty severe price corrections with inventory not much higher than where we are now. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-555 Sun, 20 Jun 2010 14:41:44 +0000 Drachen 555@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>You're disappointing me Vibe... I have my fingers crossed it's just flattening because lots of people are out to beat the HST, maybe we'll make up for lost time in July. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-554 Fri, 18 Jun 2010 21:21:02 +0000 vibe 554@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Looks like we might drop below &#39;08 levels soon:</p> <p> [attachment=554,73] </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-524 Fri, 11 Jun 2010 19:01:41 +0000 VHB 524@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>18781, according to paulb. Sales were 100, new listings 230. We only gained 31 listings. Does this mean there were 99 expiries/pulled off market today?? That's a heap of things pulled off the market.</p> <p>Getting to 19K is quite likely this month, but I don't think we'll see 20K. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-523 Thu, 10 Jun 2010 20:31:37 +0000 VHB 523@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>18750. according to paulb June 10th. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-521 Thu, 10 Jun 2010 09:22:31 +0000 vibe 521@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Chart update:</p> <p> [attachment=521,72] </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-519 Wed, 09 Jun 2010 16:50:38 +0000 VHB 519@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>18620 on June 9th, according to Paulb. </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-504 Fri, 04 Jun 2010 14:44:13 +0000 canhome 504@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>May’s wilting flower, average Vancouver house price dropped by about $45,000 last month, latest "Greater Vancouver Monthly Real Estate Statistics 2006 - 2010" interactive charts </p> <p><a href="http://canadabubble.com/charts/634-greater-vancouver-real-estate-stats.html" rel="nofollow">http://canadabubble.com/charts/634-greater-vancouver-real-estate-stats.html</a> </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-499 Thu, 03 Jun 2010 06:59:27 +0000 VHB 499@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Here are the inventory gains over the last 5 years by month. I take the gain from the last available day of the previous month to the last available day of the current month. So, March 2010 gains are calculated as March 31 minus February 28th.</p> <p>I hope this formats well.</p> <p>Gains 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 06-09 avg<br /> Jan 448 537 2008 1406 2456 1100<br /> Feb 1168 368 1465 616 1216 904<br /> Mar 878 674 1503 51 2283 777<br /> April 332 1078 2166 -276 2360 825<br /> May 692 466 2319 -587 1813 723<br /> June 253 146 2075 -373 na 525<br /> July 621 473 339 -923 na 128<br /> Aug 108 -489 -630 -414 na -356<br /> Sept 1126 605 832 680 na 811<br /> Oct 439 -31 -427 -573 na -148<br /> Nov -984 -1082 -986 -1068 na -1030<br /> Dec -1743 -1688 -2351 -2184 na -1992</p> <p>Comments:<br /> <ol type="1"><li>We weren't as strong in May 2010 as May 2008. Just a bit behind, though.</li><li>If we gained the same 2075 as June 2008, we would be at 20,927 by June 30th.</li><li>June sales for last four years are 3951, 4244, 2425, 4259. Average is 3720.</li><li>If we see sales at say 2750 and end of June inventory at say 20,000, that would give MoI of 7.27.</li><li>Things really slow down in July/August. So, what we see in June will more or less be the peak.</li><li>There will be a mini listings spike in September and maybe into October, but that will more or less just recapture what was lost in July/August + maybe a little bit more.</li><li>Based on all this, I predict we will peak somewhere between 21 and 22K for the year. This peak will happen in mid-October.</li><li>Average October sales over the last 4 years are 2705. 2008 sales were 1364.</li><li>Taking inventory of 21,500 with avg October sales gives MoI of 7.95. At the 2008 sales level, then MoI is 15.8. If you guess that October sales will be 2000, then that gives an MoI of 10.75.</li></p> <p></ol> </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-495 Wed, 02 Jun 2010 19:58:59 +0000 jesse 495@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Here is a plot of 3 month moving average MOI I usually post on housing-analysis. Notice the similarity between 2008 and 2010? When MOI rises between April and May, nasty things happen to prices.</p> <p> [attachment=495,71] </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-494 Wed, 02 Jun 2010 19:42:57 +0000 vibe 494@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Crash averted, that was close.</p> <p> [attachment=494,70] </p> http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/total-inventory-for-all-rebgv/page/4#post-477 Thu, 27 May 2010 22:26:43 +0000 VHB 477@http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/ <p>Inventory Says:<br /> May 27th, 2010 at 10:43 pm</p> <p>Mar 1, 2010 = 12255<br /> Mar 2, 2010 = 12324<br /> Mar 3, 2010 = 12459<br /> Mar 4, 2010 = 12670<br /> Mar 5, 2010 = 12775<br /> Mar 8, 2010 = 13019 **<br /> Mar 9, 2010 = 13244<br /> Mar 10, 2010 = 13439<br /> Mar 11, 2010 = 13551<br /> Mar 12, 2010 = 13609<br /> Mar 15, 2010 = 13755<br /> Mar 16, 2010 = 13779<br /> Mar 17, 2010 = 13870<br /> Mar 18, 2010 = 14042 **<br /> Mar 19, 2010 = 14103<br /> Mar 22,2010 = 14258<br /> Mar 23, 2010 = 14312<br /> Mar 24, 2010 = 14322<br /> Mar 25, 2010 = 14446<br /> Mar 26, 2010 = 14558<br /> Mar 29, 2010 = 14635<br /> Mar 30, 2010 = 14721<br /> Mar 31, 2010 = 14679<br /> Apr 1, 2010 = 14,667<br /> Apr 6, 2010 = 14,832<br /> Apr 7, 2010 = 14,915<br /> Apr 8, 2010 = 15,221 **<br /> Apr 9, 2010 = 15,399<br /> Apr 12, 2010 = 15,462<br /> Apr 13, 2010 = 15,595<br /> Apr 14, 2010 = 15,779<br /> Apr 15, 2010 = 15,858<br /> Apr 16, 2010 = 15,822<br /> Apr 17, 2010 = 15,924<br /> Apr 19, 2010 = 16,088 **<br /> Apr 20, 2010 = 16,305<br /> Apr 21, 2010 = 16,340<br /> Apr 22, 2010 = 16,496<br /> Apr 23, 2010 = 16,579<br /> Apr 26, 2010 = 16,741<br /> Apr 27, 2010 = 16,846<br /> Apr 28, 2010 = 16,866<br /> Apr 29, 2010 = 16,918<br /> Apr 30, 2010 = 17,039 **<br /> May 3, 2010 = 16,799<br /> May 4, 2010 = 16,980<br /> May 5, 2010 = 17,089<br /> May 6, 2010 = 17,200<br /> May 7, 2010 = 17,368<br /> May 10, 2010 = 17,437<br /> May 11, 2010 = 17,598<br /> May 12, 2010 = 17,719<br /> May 13, 2010 = 17,922<br /> May 14, 2010 = 18,080 **<br /> May 17, 2010 = 18,212<br /> May 18, 2010 = 18,319<br /> May 19, 2010 = 18,315<br /> May 20, 2010 = 18,360<br /> May 21, 2010 = 18,438<br /> May 24, 2010 = 18,423<br /> May 25, 2010 = 18,608<br /> May 26, 2010 = 18,681<br /> May 27, 2010 = 18,815 </p>