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Lower Mainland housing and economic issues.

1. 

   VHB
   Member

   Here is a graph of condo inventory in Downtown-False Creek North. This leaves out the west end and coal harbour, but captures the rest of the downtown peninsula. More importantly, it's the same area over the 5 years I've been tracking this. This is from searches on the public MLS.

   Yes, it is over 1000.

   

   But, I think it is just a matter of weeks until all of those sales that were made to Olympic visitors start to show up. Wasn't that the theory? Anyone heard much about that recently?

   Attachments

   1. dt-inventory-april19th.JPG (61.3 KB, 9 downloads) 1 year old

   Posted 1 year ago #
2. 

   vreaa
   Member

   Wow!
   Thanks.

   Posted 1 year ago #
3. 

   paulb
   Member

   

   Posted 1 year ago #
4. 

   VHB
   Member

   Hell, I'll show you Coal Harbour too. CH inventory is at its all time peak in my data.

   Posted 1 year ago #
5. 

   VHB
   Member

   And here is the chart.

   

   Attachments

   1. coal-harbour-april19.JPG (39.2 KB, 3 downloads) 1 year old

   Posted 1 year ago #
6. 

   bearishbull
   Member

   Good news for you VHB. Official numbers for Downtown + False Creek North as of right now 10:21AM May 21st 2010 is

   drum roll please....

   1148!

   Posted 1 year ago #
7. 

   Greenhorn
   Member

   The downtown condo market will stat strong because of Asian hot money. We have China, Korea and Iran.

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   Posted 1 year ago #
8. 

   VHB
   Member

   Here is an update to the graph. We just hit an alltime high at 1142 for DT-FN apartments. So much for the big bullish turnaround some have been trumpeting. In fact, we hit 2010 highs for (public MLS) inventory for VW detached, VE detached, and CH apartments, too.

   Overall REBGV inventory has been flat; but it doesn't look like the ones de-listing are in Van proper.

   

   I'm going to have to shift my y axis soon. I love when that happens.

   Attachments

   1. dtfn-graph-june2010.jpg (57.8 KB, 0 downloads) 1 year old

   Posted 1 year ago #
9. 

   Starving Artist
   Member

   Data is power. Great work, keep it up.
   To me, that data supports the theory that downtown has a lot more speculative activity, and that the de-listings are owner-occupied who were fishing for profits.

   Posted 1 year ago #
10. 

    VHB
    Member

    Here is the August 2nd update. We have lost 20% of DT-FN condo inventory over the last month. This is NOT the normal summer pattern--the normal pattern is fairly flat inventory.

    Is there an explanation for this that is not bear wishful thinking?

    

    Attachments

    1. dtfn-graph-aug2010.jpg (66.6 KB, 0 downloads) 1 year old

    Posted 1 year ago #
11. 

    jesse
    Member

    Yes. There is not a lot of distress out there. Variable mortgages make high prices affordable in the short term. Probably a bit of "gunshyedness" as well for those who tried to sell in 2008 and would rather rent out than have a place sit for the next 6 months.

    Doesn't help sales one iota.

    Also, is it just me, or is inventory right around the 2008 peak?

    Posted 1 year ago #
12. 

    vreaa
    Member

    One possibility is this kind of thinking:
    “If it doesn’t sell we’ll just rent it out. We’re not going to sell it for less than it’s worth.”
    (as overheard by anonymous, vancouvercondo.info 2 Aug 2010 10:06am)

    But this possibility does involve some "bear wishful thinking", as I expect all of this 'stealth inventory' to relist with a vengeance as prices drop (esp as they drop below the early 2009 lows).

    Posted 1 year ago #

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