Total Inventory for all REBGV «

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Total Inventory for all REBGV

(139 posts) (25 voices)

Started 1 year ago by VHB
Latest reply from bearishbull
poll: When will REBGV inventory hit 15k?
Before the end of March : (5 votes)

14 %

April : (20 votes)

56 %

May : (6 votes)

17 %

NEVER!! : (5 votes)

14 %

36 votes

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VHB
Member

A poster called 'inventory' sometimes posts the total inventory count as a comment on vci. Maybe we can get him to do that here instead. Or someone can copy it here. Here is what he posted last night.

Jan 1, 2008 = 7871
Jan 15, 2008 = 8736
Feb 1, 2008 = 9883
Feb 15, 2008 = 10868
Mar 1, 2008 = 11348
Mar 15, 2008 = 12482
Apr 1, 2008 = 12851
Apr 15, 2008 = 14245
May 1, 2008 = 15017
May 15, 2008 = 16881
Jun 1, 2008 = 17336
Jun 15, 2008 = 18485
Jul 1, 2008 = 19411
Jul 15, 2008 = 19502
Aug 1, 2008 = 19750
Aug 15, 2008 = 20371
Sep 1, 2008 = 19120
Sep 15, 2008 = 20125
Oct 1, 2008 = 19952
Oct 15, 2008 = 20542
Nov 1, 2008 = 19525
Nov 15, 2008 = 19797
Dec 1, 2008 = 18539
Dec 15, 2008 = 17895
Dec 31, 2008 = 16188

Jan 2,2009 =13525
Jan 15, 2009 = 14265
Jan 31, 2009 = 14931
Feb 15, 2009 = 15088
Feb 28, 2009 = 15547
Mar 15, 2009 = 15531
Mar 31, 2009 = 15598
Apr 31, 2009 = 15322
May 31, 2009 = 14735
Jun 31, 2009 = 14362
Jul 31, 2009 = 13439
Aug 31, 2009 = 13025
Sept 31, 2009 = 13705
Oct 31, 2009 = 13132
Nov 30, 2009 = 12064
Dec 31, 2009 = 9880
Jan 1,2010 = 8724
Jan 31, 2010 = 11180
Feb 15, 2010 = 11997
Feb 28, 2010 = 12396
Mar 9, 2010 = 13244

How long until the 15K inventory party. (Anyone else remember the 'parties' we had in 2008?? Them was good times.)

Do you think we'll make 15K by the end of the month? Or will it wait until April?

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

Mar 10, 2010 = 13439

Posted 1 year ago #
The Pope
Key Master

I dunno, we're still quite a ways to 15k.. I'm guessing April, of course if this rate keeps up it could happen. Hmmm.. I think I'll add a poll to this post!

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

Wasn't it someone called Canadian or Kopyright Klepto who used to do a calculation of the proportion of the month that is gone and a projection of month end totals, updated every night? Oh, the wonders of 2008.

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

Here's the back data if someone wants to make a graph. "inventory" just posted this on the blog.

Jan 1, 2006 = 6603
Jan 15, 2006 = 7453
Feb 1, 2006 = 7501
Feb 15, 2006 = 7965
Mar 1, 2006 = 8219
Mar 15, 2006 = 8699
Apr 1, 2006 = 9097
Apr 15, 2006 = 9025
May 1, 2006 = 9429
May 15, 2006 = 10396
Jun 1, 2006 = 10121
Jun 15, 2006 = 10434
Jul 1, 2006 = 10374
Jul 15, 2006 = 11016
Aug 1, 2006 = 10935
Aug 15, 2006 = 11083
Sep 1, 2006 = 11043
Sep 15, 2006 = 11714
Oct 1, 2006 = 12169
Oct 15, 2006 = 12769
Nov 1, 2006 = 12608
Nov 15, 2006 = 12481
Dec 1, 2006 = 11624
Dec 15, 2006 = 10996
Dec 31, 2006 = 9881

Jan 1, 2007 = 9215
Jan 15, 2007 = 9427
Feb 1, 2007 = 9752
Feb 15, 2007 = 10170
Mar 1, 2007 = 10120
Mar 15, 2007 = 10765
Apr 1, 2007 = 10794
Apr 15, 2007 = 11417
May 1, 2007 = 11872
May 15, 2007 = 12621
Jun 1, 2007 = 12338
Jun 15, 2007 = 12462
Jul 1, 2007 = 12192
Jul 15, 2007 = 12613
Aug 1, 2007 = 11719
Aug 15, 2007 = 11693
Sep 1, 2007 = 11230
Sep 15, 2007 = 11693
Oct 1, 2007 = 11835
Oct 15, 2007 = 12291
Nov 1, 2007 = 11804
Nov 15, 2007 = 11455
Dec 1, 2007 = 10722
Dec 15, 2007 = 10120
Dec 31, 2007 = 9034

Posted 1 year ago #
Starving Artist
Member

Sure, easy enough....

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tiam-9xQ4qZMl8NdrUapJhQ&output=html

We should really start a collaborative spreadsheet with multiple trusted editors to collect this data.

Posted 1 year ago #
Starving Artist
Member

What area do these numbers cover exactly?
It would be great to have the numbers broken down into regions, if anyone has the data.
I feel fairly certain that the pain will start in outlying areas such as Tri-Cities

For instance, Will's numbers are apparently for metro vancouver?
I wonder how far back his numbers go and if he's willing to share

http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/

Sales numbers (by region as well) would be awesome.
It's crazy that we don't have a MOI chart anywhere.

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

This is for the whole REBGV. That's the most useful number since it is comparable to most other numbers we see (e.g. Larry's numbers, the monthly REBGV press releases etc.)

It includes Squamish, Whistler and Pemberton down to the Fraser River.
http://www.rebgv.org/your-community

Posted 1 year ago #
The Ant
Member
Nice work guys. It looks like you can upload images here, so I'm going to try to post the graph that Starving Artist just made, hope this works:
Attachments
pub.png (21.2 KB, 16 downloads) 1 year old
"I see debt people"
Posted 1 year ago #
The Ant
Member

It worked! I like to see graphs inline with the discussion.

So it looks like we're a little over half way to the 2008 listings peak, anyone think we'll surpass that peak, and if so when?

Posted 1 year ago #
Starving Artist
Member

Where are these mid-month numbers coming from?
I don't see anything on http://www.rebgv.org for intra-month stats

eg their Feb 2010 newsletter says "At 11,346, the total number of property listings on the MLS® increased 11 per cent in February compared to last month and declined 21 per cent from this time last year."

but that number isn't in Inventory's data above.

http://www.rebgv.org/monthly-reports/february-2010

Maybe from mls.ca search? I'm not involved with the RE world except as an interested bystander and student of economics. I'd be happy to import & maintain data if I can get pointed to the right sources.

Posted 1 year ago #
vibe
Member
I'll just point out that there are fewer data points starting in '09, so the graph gets a little squished. It should look more like this:
Attachments
inventory(2).png (26.2 KB, 3 downloads) 1 year old
Posted 1 year ago #
KopyrightKlepto
Member

Wasn't it someone called Canadian or Kopyright Klepto who used to do a calculation of the proportion of the month that is gone and a projection of month end totals, updated every night? Oh, the wonders of 2008.

Two things changed: (1) Our best source for daily stats moved the to east coast and (2) I had a baby. Since then, I've been plenty happy to quietly lurk while I wait things out.

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member
Good work vibe, ant, and starving artist. I think a more effective way to graph this is to have a separate line for each year--like this. This representation allows us to see how 2010 is different from other years.

As for the accuracy of these data from 'inventory', as I recall he gets these data from the REBGV system like the other realtors (larry, robby c, paulb, agentwill). The number he is pulling is the total inventory(attached, detached, condo) for the whole board. This typically lines up more or less with the number you sometimes see in the REBGV press release. More importantly though, it is internally consistent with itself.

Note that chipman and agent will use their own geo definitions that are different from the REGBV. So, you can't compare these numbers to theirs.
Attachments
total-inv.JPG (54 KB, 5 downloads) 1 year old
Posted 1 year ago #
Starving Artist
Member

Thanks VHB, that's much more useful comparison.
Also, I guess Google Spreadsheets isn't smart enough to interpolate date data points, I'll watch that in the future.

Sure looks like we're on track for another 2008, although at this point sales remain strong enough to keep MOI in check.

Posted 1 year ago #
jesse
Member

Sales in Q1 2008 were strong and the crickets could be heard chirping starting in April. Given how fast inventory is rising with stronger sales, there better be sideline buyers or prices are going to be "soft".

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

Mar 11, 2010 = 13551
Mar 12, 2010 = 13609

February 28: 12396.
Average per day over first 10 days of march: 121.3
Business days remaining in March: 13
At same pace, how many more will we add? 13*121.3=1576.9
Would mean March 31st inventory at 15,185.9.

Does anyone want to vote for March for 15K in the poll? All we have to do is continue the pace set in the first part of March. (I voted for April myself. Oh VHB of little faith.)

Posted 1 year ago #
Starving Artist
Member

Depends on sales. Maybe the first week of March was slow from the Olympics hangover and it will pick up in the second half, maybe it won't. Last month sales were 2,473 (surprisingly strong considering the games were on) and March 2009 was 2,265 so it will be interesting to see the numbers for this month end. Could be a good indicator for what's to come... but then again this market seems to be full of surprises so I'll just stick to the numbers

Posted 1 year ago #
Dave
Member

The Olympics are potentially a big factor with listings and total inventory. I think it will take a few weeks before we know which way inventory is headed.

If you build it, they will come.

Posted 1 year ago #
specuskeptic
Member

VHB: (I voted for April myself. Oh VHB of little faith.)
This ain't about faith It's the hard data, logic, evidence - you know REALITY. Thanks to you and others with the data and the coherent arguments, we get to cut through the cloud of bull that surrounds us. A hat tip to you sir and other substantive commentators. It is much appreciated.

Posted 1 year ago #
vreaa
Member

Thanks for the forum, Pope, and for this thread to all responsible.
(I'm hoping the VCI forum will become a REALITY based alternative to that 'bastion of besotted bulls', RET.)

Yeah, the 2010 inventory is following (leading even) the 2008 curve in a way that is mouthwatering for us bears. I personally suspect we're heading for a rout in the summer.
It is possible that something about the listings logistics around all the Olympics distractions may have altered the curve, though, so we probably have to see how the next 4 to 8 weeks go to be convinced we're on 2008 path.
However, with all the RE negative developments (mortgage restrictions, HST, etc) I think we're heading into a sweet-patch for the beginnings of housing price drops.
Keep the inventory coming!
At some point, perhaps this year, all the prospective sellers will smell fear in the theatre.

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

Mar 15, 2010 = 13755
Mar 16, 2010 = 13779
Mar 17, 2010 = 13870

Added 91 yesterday. I'll take it. 10 working days left in the month. Need to average 113 a day of new listings to get to 15K. But no worries--if it doesn't happen in March, it will happen in April. And from there, upward . . . to 20K by . . . . May? June?

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

R E B G V Inventory listings

Mar 1, 2010 = 12255
Mar 2, 2010 = 12324
Mar 3, 2010 = 12459
Mar 4, 2010 = 12670
Mar 5, 2010 = 12775
Mar 8, 2010 = 13019
Mar 9, 2010 = 13244
Mar 10, 2010 = 13439
Mar 11, 2010 = 13551
Mar 12, 2010 = 13609
Mar 15, 2010 = 13755
Mar 16, 2010 = 13779
Mar 17, 2010 = 13870
Mar 18, 2010 = 14027

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

Time for a 14K party!!!

Hooray! 14K! 9 working days left in March. Need to average 108.1 a day to get to 15K by the end of March.

But today is a 14K party!

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

Feb 28th: 12396
March 18th: 14027
14 working days. Per day = 116.5.
9 working days left * 116.5 = 1048.5.
1048.5+14027=15075.

If inventory growth continues at the same pace for the rest of March, we'll be at 15075 on March 31st. This is a projection, not a prediction.

Posted 1 year ago #
jesse
Member
Golden.
Attachments
gan14k.jpg (8.8 KB, 0 downloads) 1 year old
Posted 1 year ago #
The Ant
Member

Wow! 288 listings today and 81 sales. I'd like to change my poll answer to 'before the end of March' now. Listings are moving up faster than I thought they would be. zoom!

Posted 1 year ago #
Declan
Member

Looking at the chart above from VHB, it seems like there is a consistent pattern that inventory rises faster in the first half of the month, than the second half (today being an exception!).

Can anyone who knows more about how the real estate market works than I do comment on why we'd see greater listing increases in the first half of the month (maybe more people close sales before the month ends?).

Posted 1 year ago #
arit
Member

15K is nice. 20k is business!
Happy 14k y'all.

Regards

arit

Posted 1 year ago #
VHB
Member

Mar 18, 2010 = 14042
Mar 19, 2010 = 14103
Mar 22,2010 = 14240

Pace on first 16 working days of march: (14240-12396)/16 = 115.25
7 working days left at same pace would add 807. This would take us to 15,047. It is going to be close.

Posted 1 year ago #

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