We're going to need a new 15k party thread soon. If the buyers don't start showing up in droves we're going to have to deal with a lot more bored realtors trolling on this site.
Total Inventory for all REBGV
(139 posts) (25 voices)-
VHB
MemberGain in inventory through March:
2006: +480
2007: +674
2008: +1503
2009: +51
2010: +1862 (through March 22)This is NOT a normal March listing boom.
But should we disregard this because it is simply an 'Olympic effect'? No. Buyers don't care why a unit is on the market. It's just inventory. And there is a lot of it!
Posted 1 year ago # -
But should we disregard this because it is simply an 'Olympic effect'? No.
It is strange that listings are so concentrated downtown. It depends what you mean by "effect" but the increase in listings so close in time and space to the Olympics seems to indicate there was some effect, though not one positive for future prices.
Posted 1 year ago # -
VHB
MemberJesse--it is likely an Olympic effect. But my point was that we can't just disregard it because of the reason why inventory is increasing. When some buyer is choosing among the many buying options, he doesn't care why the units were put on the market, he just revels in the fact that there is so much choice!
Posted 1 year ago # -
VHB
MemberMar 23, 2010 = 14312
Mar 24, 2010 = 14322Couple slow days in a row. But there is always tomorrow!
18 days so far in March. Gain is 1926, or 107 per day.
5 days left. If we do 107 per day, we get + 535, which would take us to 14859. No 15K at this pace--not in March, anyway! We need to average 136 a day to get to 15K. Not crazy impossible, but not high probability.
Posted 1 year ago # -
VHB
MemberMar 1, 2010 = 12255
Mar 2, 2010 = 12324
Mar 3, 2010 = 12459
Mar 4, 2010 = 12670
Mar 5, 2010 = 12775
Mar 8, 2010 = 13019
Mar 9, 2010 = 13244
Mar 10, 2010 = 13439
Mar 11, 2010 = 13551
Mar 12, 2010 = 13609
Mar 15, 2010 = 13755
Mar 16, 2010 = 13779
Mar 17, 2010 = 13870
Mar 18, 2010 = 14042
Mar 19, 2010 = 14103
Mar 22,2010 = 14258
Mar 23, 2010 = 14312
Mar 24, 2010 = 14322
Mar 25, 2010 = 14446
Mar 26, 2010 = 14558
Mar 29, 2010 = 14635
Mar 30, 2010 = 14721
Mar 31, 2010 = 14679Posted 1 year ago # -
VHB
MemberAccording to 'inventory', these are month end REBGV numbers for April. 2010 shows the April 1st not 30th number.
Apr 1995 19298
Apr 1996 19374
Apr 1997 18969
Apr 1998 20578
Apr 1999 16958
Apr 2000 15823
Apr 2001 14921
Apr 2002 12275
Apr 2003 10213
Apr 2004 9913
Apr 2005 11637
Apr 2006 9638
Apr 2007 12135
Apr 2008 15216
Apr 2009 15332
Apr 2010 14414Posted 1 year ago # -
vibe
MemberHere's an update to the graph:
Attachments
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total_rebgv_inventory(2).png (34.7 KB, 0 downloads) 1 year old
Posted 1 year ago # -
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VHB
MemberHere are the monthly gains over the last 5 years:
Gains 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Jan 448 537 2008 1406 2456
Feb 1168 368 1465 616 1216
Mar 878 674 1503 51 2283
April 332 1078 2166 -276
May 692 466 2319 -587
June 253 146 2075 -373
July 621 473 339 -923
Aug 108 -489 -630 -414
Sept 1126 605 832 680
Oct 439 -31 -427 -573
Nov -984 -1082 -986 -1068
Dec -1743 -1688 -2351 -2184Notes:
- Biggest gain months are typically March and April
- In 2008 though, the biggest gain was in May.
- If we want to see a gain like 2008, we need to add 2K per month from now through June. Can that happen again? That would take us to 21K
- In normal years, we don't see much change between July and October, although there is a mini spike in September. So, to the extent this year is normal, what we see in the next 3 months will determine the peak for the year.
- The real fun will begin if we go into 2011 with 20K+ on the market.
Posted 1 year ago # -
The big gain in May '08 was in part due to sales faltering, about 1500 less than the immediate years previous.
http://housing-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/06/rebgv-may-2008-stats.html
I would expect April sales to be reasonably robust, as they usually are. I don't know why this is but I am supposing families will usually buy before they sell. I know two such families who have recently bought and will put their existing properties on the market soon.
Hopefully those bridges don't turn out to be piers.
Posted 1 year ago # -
The Ant
MemberI'll bet on May 2010 for the first price decreases.
Price decreases have already started. The benchmark price fell from February to March 2010, but only by about $500. I'm guessing you mean 'significant price decreases'.
Posted 1 year ago # -
VHB
MemberOnly three business days into April, so it's hard to have confidence that this pace will keep up, but let's project just for fun. Note that Easter likely messes this up too since there might have been some work done over those days that was booked on Tues/Wed.
April 1st inventory was 14414. Three working days later on April 8th this was 15221. That's a pace of 269/day. 16 working days left in the month means we are on pace to add 4304. That would take us to 19525.
Note that this is a projection, not a prediction. I don't think we'll hold to the pace of 269 net listings a day. @100 listings a day, we would hit 16821. @200 listings a day it would be 18421. @150 a day would be 17621.
I don't think sales will die off much until April 19th, so net listings may not continue to super jump. But I would guess we have a good chance to hit 17K and some chance to hit 17,500. 20K in June!
Posted 1 year ago # -
canhome
MemberInteractive version: Greater Vancouver Monthly Real Estate Statistics
http://canadabubble.com/charts/634-greater-vancouver-real-estate-stats.html
Posted 1 year ago #
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