May 18th, right? And May 14th at 18,166?
Total Inventory for all REBGV
(139 posts) (25 voices)-
bearishbull
MemberInventory is flat today at around 18250.
We'll have to wait another week for a jump. We'll probably only see 19k by the end of this month. Still not bad and still higher than 2008.
I've been calling and making low ball offers but sellers still haven't clued in.
Nobody is willing to take a 20% haircut off of current perceived market value
Posted 1 year ago # -
Anonymous
UnregisteredNice! Thanks for updating the graph Vibe.
I like how the poll attached to this thread from a couple months ago is 'when will we hit 15k of inventory' and now we're looking at when we hit 19k!
Posted 1 year ago # -
Absinthe
MemberSpecuskeptic, I think in one of these threads VHB showed that sales are on pace to meet the second slowest year and they're trending down. I don't think there's a buyer's strike on yet although I imagine it will happen -- but certainly having more inventory in and of itself will help take some of the panic out of purchaser decisions, helping to change the psychology.
Posted 1 year ago # -
VHB
MemberIn May we have been adding net listings at a pace of 117 a day. There are 5 days left, meaning we will add about 584 more. Inventory on Friday was 18435. This would project to 19019 on May 31st.
BUT, the pace was noticeably slower last week. If we see the same apace this week we will not see 19K in May.
Posted 1 year ago # -
Tiiiimber!
source: [url=http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf]null
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New_Bitmap_Image.jpg (95.4 KB, 0 downloads) 1 year old
Posted 1 year ago # -
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VHB
MemberInventory Says:
May 27th, 2010 at 10:43 pmMar 1, 2010 = 12255
Mar 2, 2010 = 12324
Mar 3, 2010 = 12459
Mar 4, 2010 = 12670
Mar 5, 2010 = 12775
Mar 8, 2010 = 13019 **
Mar 9, 2010 = 13244
Mar 10, 2010 = 13439
Mar 11, 2010 = 13551
Mar 12, 2010 = 13609
Mar 15, 2010 = 13755
Mar 16, 2010 = 13779
Mar 17, 2010 = 13870
Mar 18, 2010 = 14042 **
Mar 19, 2010 = 14103
Mar 22,2010 = 14258
Mar 23, 2010 = 14312
Mar 24, 2010 = 14322
Mar 25, 2010 = 14446
Mar 26, 2010 = 14558
Mar 29, 2010 = 14635
Mar 30, 2010 = 14721
Mar 31, 2010 = 14679
Apr 1, 2010 = 14,667
Apr 6, 2010 = 14,832
Apr 7, 2010 = 14,915
Apr 8, 2010 = 15,221 **
Apr 9, 2010 = 15,399
Apr 12, 2010 = 15,462
Apr 13, 2010 = 15,595
Apr 14, 2010 = 15,779
Apr 15, 2010 = 15,858
Apr 16, 2010 = 15,822
Apr 17, 2010 = 15,924
Apr 19, 2010 = 16,088 **
Apr 20, 2010 = 16,305
Apr 21, 2010 = 16,340
Apr 22, 2010 = 16,496
Apr 23, 2010 = 16,579
Apr 26, 2010 = 16,741
Apr 27, 2010 = 16,846
Apr 28, 2010 = 16,866
Apr 29, 2010 = 16,918
Apr 30, 2010 = 17,039 **
May 3, 2010 = 16,799
May 4, 2010 = 16,980
May 5, 2010 = 17,089
May 6, 2010 = 17,200
May 7, 2010 = 17,368
May 10, 2010 = 17,437
May 11, 2010 = 17,598
May 12, 2010 = 17,719
May 13, 2010 = 17,922
May 14, 2010 = 18,080 **
May 17, 2010 = 18,212
May 18, 2010 = 18,319
May 19, 2010 = 18,315
May 20, 2010 = 18,360
May 21, 2010 = 18,438
May 24, 2010 = 18,423
May 25, 2010 = 18,608
May 26, 2010 = 18,681
May 27, 2010 = 18,815Posted 1 year ago # -
Here is a plot of 3 month moving average MOI I usually post on housing-analysis. Notice the similarity between 2008 and 2010? When MOI rises between April and May, nasty things happen to prices.
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- HOH_change_highlighted_MOI.JPG (91.8 KB, 5 downloads) 1 year old
Posted 1 year ago # -
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VHB
MemberHere are the inventory gains over the last 5 years by month. I take the gain from the last available day of the previous month to the last available day of the current month. So, March 2010 gains are calculated as March 31 minus February 28th.
I hope this formats well.
Gains 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 06-09 avg
Jan 448 537 2008 1406 2456 1100
Feb 1168 368 1465 616 1216 904
Mar 878 674 1503 51 2283 777
April 332 1078 2166 -276 2360 825
May 692 466 2319 -587 1813 723
June 253 146 2075 -373 na 525
July 621 473 339 -923 na 128
Aug 108 -489 -630 -414 na -356
Sept 1126 605 832 680 na 811
Oct 439 -31 -427 -573 na -148
Nov -984 -1082 -986 -1068 na -1030
Dec -1743 -1688 -2351 -2184 na -1992Comments:
- We weren't as strong in May 2010 as May 2008. Just a bit behind, though.
- If we gained the same 2075 as June 2008, we would be at 20,927 by June 30th.
- June sales for last four years are 3951, 4244, 2425, 4259. Average is 3720.
- If we see sales at say 2750 and end of June inventory at say 20,000, that would give MoI of 7.27.
- Things really slow down in July/August. So, what we see in June will more or less be the peak.
- There will be a mini listings spike in September and maybe into October, but that will more or less just recapture what was lost in July/August + maybe a little bit more.
- Based on all this, I predict we will peak somewhere between 21 and 22K for the year. This peak will happen in mid-October.
- Average October sales over the last 4 years are 2705. 2008 sales were 1364.
- Taking inventory of 21,500 with avg October sales gives MoI of 7.95. At the 2008 sales level, then MoI is 15.8. If you guess that October sales will be 2000, then that gives an MoI of 10.75.
Posted 1 year ago # -
canhome
MemberMay’s wilting flower, average Vancouver house price dropped by about $45,000 last month, latest "Greater Vancouver Monthly Real Estate Statistics 2006 - 2010" interactive charts
http://canadabubble.com/charts/634-greater-vancouver-real-estate-stats.html
Posted 1 year ago # -
VHB
Member18781, according to paulb. Sales were 100, new listings 230. We only gained 31 listings. Does this mean there were 99 expiries/pulled off market today?? That's a heap of things pulled off the market.
Getting to 19K is quite likely this month, but I don't think we'll see 20K.
Posted 1 year ago # -
vibe
MemberLooks like we might drop below '08 levels soon:
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- Inventory.png (88.5 KB, 0 downloads) 1 year old
Posted 1 year ago # -
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