Here’s a nice article that should reassure you.
The housing market in Canada is forecast to fall, but not crash like in the US.
In fact the first three paragraphs each repeat that this will NOT be like a US style crash.
Canadian housing prices will fall 10% over the next several years and homebuilding will slow sharply in 2013, but the country’s recent property boom is not expected to end in a U.S.-style collapse, according to a Reuters poll.
The survey of 20 forecasters published on Friday showed the majority believe the Canadian government has done enough to rein in runaway prices, preventing the type of crash that has devastated the U.S. market for years.
“This isn’t a sharp correction, this isn’t a U.S.-style correction, it’s just simply an unwinding of the excess valuation that was created by artificially low interest rates for a long period of time,” said Craig Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.
“I would emphasize that while a 10 % correction sounds scary, in actual fact, this would be a healthy outcome.”
Just a gentle feather slowly drifting to the safety of the ground.
Read the full article here.
So we’ve gotten to the point where it’s pretty unanimously agreed that real estate in Toronto and Vancouver is over-valued and due for a correction.
The question now is what sort of an end to this housing boom we will be looking at.
Will this be an explosive toppling of values, a market that runs head first into a wall, or will it be a simple slow leak for years and years?
..And which would be better?
You can add David Rosenberg to the list of people that say ‘whimper, not bang‘.
His latest comments fall into the ‘not a bubble, a balloon’ camp:
“Prices are starting to deflate by 0.8% YoY, though more like air coming out a balloon slowly than a giant pop,” wrote Rosenberg Tuesday in his morning note.
“It is gradually becoming a buyer’s market with the inventory of unsold homes rising to six month’s supply, which is at the edge of a balanced market.”
Of course most of that drop nationally is being driven by Vancouver where everything is falling fastest. What remains to be seen is whether the current drop will remain even or accelerate.
Happy day after the new mortgage rules come into effect!
Even before these rules were announced we saw a ‘softening’ in the Vancouver real estate market.
Prices have drifted down as of late and sales are at an all-time-low and inventory keeps growing.
..Yet there are still those that believe ‘it’s different here’.
We saw housing bubbles grow all around the world and pop one by one, but we went through the same steps of pumping up cheap credit to build the house of cards higher.
Check out this post on Alphahunt about Why a Crash in Canadian House Prices is Certain.
What’s amplified our current RE cycle is that credit was steadily made cheaper & easier throughout the boom period – and especially when the RE market suffered in 2008. After finally waking up and seeing the monster they helped create, the Gov’t is making lending rules stricter. Lending practices should not have been made so loose to begin with. And their meddling in 2008 only delayed the inevitable bust.
Today, we’re still at extreme unaffordability and there is no such thing as a ‘soft landing’ or ‘small correction’ for Vancouver RE. Any asset that has seen a price rise of at least two standard deviations above long-term valuation ratios has always mean reverted. If the Vancouver RE market did not return to the normal multiple of income and rent, it will be the first time in history. You can’t binge drink and avoid the hangover. Timing the start of the hangover is always challenging, but what we know with high probability is that there will be a hangover.