Tag Archives: cad

Canada, debt, economy, rates, USA

Who wants a 50 cent dollar?

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With rumors of another rate cut, Rob Carrick points out 8 reasons he thinks that’s a bad idea. The very first reason? The Looney will fall even further against the US dollar.

For eight years, the Bank of Canada has been trying to encourage economic growth by lowering interest rates. It’s so not working.

In fact, lower rates are hurting a lot of people more than they’re helping. We have to at least acknowledge this as speculation of yet another rate cut grows. It could come as soon as Wednesday, which is the date of the next rate announcement from the Bank of Canada.

The central bank considers the entire economy when it sets rates. Now, let’s look at things from the point of view of everyday people. Here are eight reasons why the Bank of Canada shouldn’t cut rates any lower.

1. The dollar will fall even more: The most disruptive force in personal finance right now is the falling dollar. That’s because it’s hitting us all in a vulnerable spot – our grocery bill. Helpful for exporters, a weak loonie is a tax on families and snowbirds who must change Canadian dollars into U.S. currency. Last week, the dollar fell below 70 cents (U.S.) for the first time since 2003. A lower dollar adds downward momentum.

Read the full list over at the Globe and Mail, although a number of them are directly connected to a dropping looney.

The one group that a dropping looney should help are exporters as their products get cheaper for foreign buyers, but Jayson Myers, the head of the countries largest exporters association says don’t bother.

“Interest rates are low already. A little bit of dollar stability would be better.”

As an interesting aside, in 2002 when the CAD was hitting record lows Treasury Board President Scott Brison said it was

“a pay cut to every Canadian, a drop in our standard of living and a reflection of the fact that Canadians are getting poorer as Americans are getting richer under the watch of the government,”

Scott Brison is now a key cabinet minister and top economic aide to Trudeau.

 A hat-tip to southseacompany for the links.

BC, Canada, debt, economy, mortgage, predictions, rates

BOC chops rate in race for bottom

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If you’ll recall you’ve been warned many times by a number of government talking heads that rates could go up at any time.

Today the Bank of Canada finally took action and cut rates by a quarter from 1% to 0.75%.

Speaking to reporters, Mr. Poloz said the oil price drop is “unambiguously bad” for the Canadian economy, prompting the bank to take out what he called an “insurance policy” against future risks, such as weak inflation and a household debt squeeze. But he denied the move was calculated to send the Canadian dollar lower.

“Market consequences will be what they are,” he said.

The rate cut sent the loonie plummeting below 81 cents (U.S.).

Mr. Poloz, who acknowledged that oil dominated the bank’s discussions leading up to Wednesday’s rate decision, said he’s ready to cut rates again if prices fall further.

“The world changes fast and if it changes again, we have room to take out more insurance,” he said.

The rate move, which few analysts anticipated, is an attempt by Mr. Poloz to shield highly indebted Canadian households from an oil-induced hit to their jobs and incomes – signs of which are already evident in Alberta.

In the comments section here, Dave asked the question: How much of the BC economy is tied to Oil and Alberta?

I would like to know how much of a hit the damage to Alberta will be to BC. It seems to me that everybody underestimates the economic impact. I think our statistics don’t capture the role of Alberta in our economy. I think I read that Westjet estimated 5,000 people in the Okanagan work in the oil patch. And that’s just them trying to estimate things for their benefit (i.e. people who buy plane tickets). How many work from home on their computers? Or only make a few trips per year and don’t get picked up the radar? How many work in the Okanagan but for companies that service the oil patch? Add it all up and there is a LOT of employment related to Alberta.

 

Canada, debt, economy, opinion, rates

Days of ultra-cheap money coming to an end

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..At least that’s what Mark Carney and other Bank of Canada officials have said according to this article, yet they’re refraining from being more specific.

Meanwhile the Organization for Economic and Co-operative Development (OECD) is urging Canada to start raising interest rates in the fall and keep on raising them to stop an inflating housing bubble and reign in inflation.

The OECD, a high-powered economic research group backed by contributions from its 34 rich country members, offers a scenario: An increase in the benchmark rate of a quarter of a percentage point in the autumn, and similar increases each quarter through to the end of next year, leaving the benchmark overnight target at 2.25 per cent.

That still would be low by historical standards, yet, according to the OECD, likely a big enough increase to cause prospective homeowners to think twice before buying at current inflated prices. However, the OECD’s recommendation comes with a risk.

The Federal Reserve Board has made a conditional pledge to leave U.S. rates extremely low until the end of 2014. Following the OECD’s path could create an unprecedented spread between Canadian and U.S. interest rates, which would put upward pressure on a Canadian dollar that many say already is too strong.

Oh, and the OECD made this same recommendation a year ago and was ignored. So I wonder how Carney intends to bring the days of ultra-cheap money to an end?