Good monday to you all!
As we head into another week it will be interesting to see if the current dismal sales trend holds.
VHB puts it into perspective:
If we get another week like last week, we will be on pace for sub-2008 September sales. Pause and think about that. In the middle of the biggest financial crisis in 75 years, more houses were sold than now. Wow.
So let’s look short term – what do you think? Will this week reverse the trend that kicked off the month or are we going to see more of the same?
Yeah, sales are down across Canada and prices as well.
Average prices across the nation dropped 2% in July on a Year over Year basis.
But it’s really not as bad as it sounds.
That national average is mostly being dragged down by Vancouver where average prices fell 12.2% in July according to the CREA.
So mostly it’s the Vancouver real estate market where prices shot through the roof and are now falling back to earth that is dragging down the national average.
No Canadian real estate market crash yet.
Yesterday we heard from a Vancouver Realtor about why condos aren’t selling.
And now there’s this article in the Vancouver Sun Buyers on the Sidelines as Market Slows.
Its all about the market slowdown – we’re now seeing the lowest number of sales since 2000 in Vancouver.
Nice houses that are priced right are selling within days, some in bidding wars. But anything priced too high or considered undesirable is apt to sit idle in this market, which is, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, witnessing the lowest total sales for the region since July, 2000. The Board reported 2,098 property sales in July, a drop of 11.2 per cent compared to June. It’s a drop of 18.4 per cent compared to July, 2011.
There are many anecdotal stories around the Lower Mainland about houses that have sat on the market for months, priced too high for the more price-conscious market. A six-year-old West Vancouver home on a 21,000-square-foot lot overlooking Capilano Golf & Country Club was originally listed at $3.695-million three months ago. The owners have reduced the price by $400,000 and it still hasn’t sold.
“There is a lot of product but it’s not selling for the price that people expected or hoped for,” says real estate finance expert Tsur Somerville, who is director of the University of B.C.’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate. “People aren’t buying at the prices that are being set.”
Well here’s a funny thing about ‘the right price’ in a correcting market: it keeps changing.
I live in a BC market that is several years into it’s correction and I can tell you that the places that are selling are moving only at prices that are lower than the ‘right price’ a year ago and far lower than the ‘right price’ several years ago.
Inventory posted this update to detached sales in Richmond and it’s astounding.
We’re not at the end of the month quite yet, so this number will rise, but we would have to have an incredible amount of sales to not have July 2012 register as an all time record low number of sales.
Here’s the comparison for July detached sales all the way back to 1995, we’re currently sitting at about half of the low normal level:
Richmond Detached July
1995 = 108
1996 = 117
1997 = 122
1998 = 86
1999 = 113
2000 = 96
2001 = 183
2002 = 154
2003 = 209
2004 = 129
2005 = 170
2006 = 97
2007 = 175
2008 = 92
2009 = 221
2010 = 107
2011 = 123
2012 = 54 (-56%) ***July 29
Just what is happening there to the south of Vancouver? Have houses in Richmond fallen out of favour with buyers for some reason?
Should we have some sort of index tracking Realtors making public statements that it’s time to sell?
The market is sluggish, sales are low, inventory is growing.
..And the number of agents saying it’s time to SELL NOW is growing as well.
Agent Keith Roy was in the news recently with his blog post about the sale of his personal property and now Sam Wyatt is saying something similar:
Vancouver’s real estate market is getting and is going to get hit from both ends. So, now that you are thoroughly depressed, here is the bright light: IF YOU SELL NOW, YOU WILL STILL BE SELLING NEAR THE TOP OF THE MARKET. If you plan to sell, you will need to price BELOW the most recent comparable sales prices. If you don’t do this, your listing will stagnate. I am pleased that this methodology has produced 4 sales in the last 30 days for my clients in a market were most homes are not selling. In one case we had a multiple offer with a significant over asking result and in another we negotiated a full asking price sale.
I guess the important part is in all caps.
So can anyone find me a Realtor saying that now is a good time to buy in Vancouver?