Tag Archives: flat

Down is the new flat in Vancouver and Victoria

A ‘flat’ market sounds good right?

Not too up, not too down, but just right.

It means if you buy a condo now you won’t have to suffer the indignity of someone buying the unit upstairs from you for $100k less in the future.

So flat is comfortable and we’re starting to see that word a lot more these days.  This article uses it in the headline: Vancouver condo market stays flat.

So you might be surprised to read the following directly under that headline:

Although Vancouver has a reputation as one of the most expensive cities in North America for housing, condo prices stayed flat or even dropped last year, according to recently released assessment numbers.

That follows several years of the same pattern, which means overall condo prices are now seven to eight per cent lower in inflation-adjusted dollars than they were at the recent peak of the condo market in 2009, says one analyst.

Meanwhile in the capital city they’re using the same word: Flat forecast for Greater Victoria home prices.

And here’s what they say:

Although the number of homes sold for the past year rose by four per cent to 5,998 from 5,747 in 2012, the benchmark price for a single-family house slid by 3.2 per cent. That benchmark, representing a typical house, was $479,599 in December, down from $495,400 during the same month in 2012, the board said Thursday.

The benchmark price has dropped from three years ago when it was $515,500, the board said. And it’s lower than the $483,400 price recorded five years ago.

So here’s the cheat sheet:

Vancouver ‘flat’ = 7-8% drop over four years.

Victoria ‘flat’ = $35,901 drop over three years.

The Flat Market Fantasy

It seems that everywhere around the world that house prices lept up quickly there was always someone predicting a ‘plateau’.  The idea that even if the market is overpriced the correction won’t come in the form of a crash, but instead property prices will stay flat and wait for income and rents to catch up.  This prediction is of course being applied to the Canadian real estate market as well:

Matthieu Arseneau, a senior economist with the National Bank, likes mortgage payments as the best yardstick. That’s because the evidence tells him that the rise of interest rates from today’s bargain-basement levels will be moderate. Based on this, he thinks it’s silly to foresee a housing crash, since monthly payments won’t get into distress territory even by the time rates peak in about three years.

That’s why Arseneau dismisses apocalyptic talk about a housing crash in Canada. As a cautious analyst, he doesn’t rule out any scenario absolutely, but Arseneau said Monday that this one is awfully unlikely: “I think there will be no collapse unless there’s a worldwide recession and credit crisis.”

Of course these comments regard the Canadian real estate market, not the Vancouver market specifically.  Can anyone name any real estate markets that have reached Vancouver levels and then gone flat?

Full article at the Ottawa Citizen.