Tag Archives: forecast

A future based on past results

Here’s an extrapolation for you: Altus group does home appraisal and valuations.

They looked at the numbers and say if everything carries on as usual the average home price on the west side will be 7 million in 10 years.

“If [the current] trend continues, in the year 2024 the average price for older [detached housing] stock could be greater than $2 million on the Eastside and $7 million on the Westside of Vancouver. We are not saying this will happen, we are simply applying the math from the past decade and extrapolating forward to the next decade,” said Pedro Tavares, Altus Group’s director of research, valuation and advisory.

And as any investor will tell you, past performance practically guarantees future results right? So what are you waiting for? Get out there and buy something!

Vancouver no longer on planet earth?

The Condo King has emerged from hibernation and seen no shadow: that means two more years of bubble.

“We no longer live in Vancouver. We live on the planet.”

With that remark, renowned Vancouver realtor Bob Rennie attempted to explain the evolution of this city’s exasperating housing market.

He made the comment last week to a conference of the Urban Land Institute, an organization representing realtors and developers who intimately understand what the condo guru was referring to.

Full article in the Vancouver Sun.

Pimco talking down Canada again

The worlds biggest bond fund seems to think there’s some sort of an issue with the Canadian real estate market.

Ed Devlin sees a decline somewhere in the range of 10-20 percent for home prices across the nation.

“And if you get that kind of 10-, 20-per-cent real correction, that should alleviate some of the stresses,” he added in an interview with our real estate reporter.

“And so that’s kind of what what we’re seeing. It will start this year, it could be bumpy along the way.”

To be clear, Mr. Devlin is not forecasting a sudden crash, but he joins a chorus of voices, from Deutsche Bank to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, in raising red flags.

Deutsche Bank, for example, believes the Canadian housing market is the most overvalued in the world.

Read the full article here.

What will the CMHC announce?

Who wants to play ‘guess the future’?

Apparently the CMHC is holding a conference call at 10 am EST on Feb 27th.

Some rumours are saying privatization, though it looks like most everyone agrees that would extreeeeemely unlikely at this point for a few reasons:

Privatization would require the finance department
No one in their right mind would take on the debt

But that doesn’t mean you can’t guess at what is going to be revealed tomorrow!

So what do you think the CMHC will announce? Privatization? Tougher underwriting standards? Branching out into commemorative figurines? A new special expert task force comprised of Brad Lamb, Bob Rennie and Angelo Mozilo?

What’s your best guess at what the CMHC will announce tomorrow?

RBC warns of mortgage rate increases

RBC sees mortgage rates going up instead of flat or down.

Their forecast is for housing to get less affordable due to rate increases.

The Royal Bank of Canada says the ability of Canadians to keep up with housing costs has been improving of late, but warns that’s about to change.

RBC’s latest housing affordability measure shows home servicing costs relative to incomes dipped slightly in the last three months of 2013 after having risen the previous two quarters.

But the relief will be temporary, the bank says in a new report, because mortgage rates are due to start rising this year.

“RBC anticipates that as longer-term interest rates begin to moderately rise, the costs of owning a home at market value will gradually outpace (growth) household incomes by late-2014, leading to strained affordability in several markets across Canada, much like the trend in Toronto,” RBC chief economist Craig Wright said in the report.

The finding bucks the recent trend, which has seen mortgage rates remain stable or even moving lower, with some brokers offering five-year fixed rates below three per cent.

Read the full article here.