Tag Archives: gvreb

BC, data, economy, opinion, predictions, prices, supply

Steady low sales continue

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Here’s a round up of last months housing market by the GVREB.

The GVREB posts a monthly market summary similar to the REBGV, but the spin is in the opposite direction.

Here’s what they say about themselves:

“GVREB is a not for profit real estate bulletin prepared by industry analysts and market participants. Comments, information and questions can be sent to the general e-mail box at gvreb1@gmail.com”

And here’s what they say about September 2012:

Steady and low sales volumes continue through September
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ON VCI
VANCOUVER, B.C. –October 3, 2012 – Sales volumes in the Greater Vancouver real estate market flattened in September 2012 yet showed typical seasonal correlations compared to August 2012. September 2012 had the lowest monthly sales volumes for the month of September in more than 20 years as the impact of the new mortgage regulations were fully reflected in market activity. Sales volumes increased compared to August 2012 with daily sales volumes increasing to 77 sales per market day in the first half of the month and then to 84 sales per market day in the second half of the month. These volumes are at seasonally historical low levels and when combined with high inventory levels, active sellers are seeing few active buyers and must price their properties accordingly in order to complete their sale.

GVREB reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties fell to 1,522 in September 2012, the lowest total for the month of September in more than 20 years. This total represents a 32 per cent decrease compared to the 2,246 sales in September 2011. Although September 2012 had the lowest monthly sales for more than two decades, it had 2 fewer market days than 2008. Adjusting for the number of sales days, September 2008 had lower sales volume than September 2012 as the number of daily sales per market day was 80 for September 2012 while September 2008 had 75.

September 2012 also brought a shift in property sales mix consistent with the changes in credit conditions. Properties typically purchased by first-time buyers have had sales volume decreases at a higher rate with apartments in all areas and homes in lower priced sub-markets slowing at a higher rate. This has had the impact of placing upward pressure on the average selling price of detached properties even while the Reference Price is decreasing. Discussions with industry experts have noted that buyers are currently financially defensive and are being cautious, making aggressive low-ball offers and waiting for sellers to reduce prices. Several properties sold for more than 20 per cent below asking prices during September 2012 while only 5 per cent sold for over the asking price. GVREB also notes that sales volumes of detached properties in historically middle-class sub-markets were the lowest in over 20 years with sales continuing to languish further in Richmond, North Vancouver and Burnaby. These 3 sub-markets had the lowest September sales volume for detached properties since the 1970’s. Low sales volumes combined with high inventory levels have increased the overall Months of Inventory (MOI) to 12. At MOI in excess of 10, there is typically a downward movement in property values.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,199 in September 2012. This is slightly above the average listing rate for the past 12 years. In addition, the sales to new listing ratio of 29.3% was the second lowest of the past 12 years. Continued market weakness has also resulted in a higher rate of listing cancellations and thus, inventory levels have failed to exceed the highs previously noted in June 2012. Based on current sales volumes, sellers who continue to list their property without a price reduction are unlikely to complete their sale before next spring.

Active listings at the end of September 2012 were 18,350, an increase of 4 per cent from August 2012. MOI continued its increase for the seventh straight month reaching an average of 12.1 for all property types. MOI for detached increased to 13.7 months at September 2012 from 12.6 months at the end of August 2012. Attached and apartment inventory increased more significantly to 11.0 months from 9.3 months. In some sub-segments the limited number of buyers has increased MOI to even higher levels with Richmond detached properties only having only a single buyer for every 52 properties listed.

The Residential Reference Price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months decreased by 0.6 per cent to $605,000 in September 2012 from $611,000 in September 2011.

Sales of detached properties in September slowed to 602 units, a decrease of 37 per cent from the 957 detached sales recorded in September 2011, and a 30 per cent decrease from the 866 units sold in September 2010. September 2012 was the second lowest sales volume of detached in the past 12 years. The reference price for detached properties fell marginally to $938,000 compared to $939,500 in September 2011.

Sales of apartment properties fell to the lowest level for the month of September in the past 2 decades to 675 units in September 2012, a 27 per cent decrease compared to the 922 sales in September 2011, and a decrease of 30 per cent compared to the 971 sales in September 2010. The reference price of an apartment property decreased marginally to $368,700 from $371,100 in September 2011.

Attached property sales in September 2012 totalled 245, a 33 per cent decrease compared to the 367 sales in September 2011, and a 36 per cent decrease from the 383 attached properties sold in September 2011. The reference price of an attached unit decreased 2.7 per cent from September 2011 to $459,000.

BC, data, debt, economy, humor, opinion, prices, supply

Market moves for August 2012

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Another month has come and gone.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) should release their market update for August any day now, buy in the interim we have the always entertaining GVREB and their news release.

The GVREB uses factual statistics, numbers and market data in their press releases just like the REBGV, but I think you’ll find the spin is a little different

Motivated Sellers Move Prices Downward in Extended Weak Market.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ON VCI

VANCOUVER, B.C. –September 4, 2012 – The extended weakness of the Greater Vancouver Property market has forced many motivated sellers to reduce prices significantly from their spring listing prices in order to sell their property. Sales volumes continued to languish at near record lows and daily sales volumes continue to decrease. Counteracting the low sales is the impact that market weakness has discouraged new sellers from listing their properties. This reduction in the pace of new listings has resulted in an overall decrease in the number of active listings compared to the number at the end of June 2012. Daily sales volumes continued to deteriorate first to 82 units per day in the first half of the month then to 71 units per day in the last half of the month. The lack of buyers has resulted in sellers taking significant discounts in order to complete their sale transaction and the majority of sales are now at prices below their July 2011 property tax assessed values.

GVREB reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,649 in August 2012. This total represents a 31 per cent decrease compared to the 2,378 sales in August 2011. August 2012 had the lowest average sales per market day for any August in the past 12 years at 76 sales per day compared to 78 sales per day in 2008, which was the most recent low.

August 2012 saw an increase in the sale of ultra-luxury properties as the summer travel season brought more foreign buyers than the previous few months. There were 3 sales in Greater Vancouver over $10 million during August 2012 and a large increase in properties over $5 million compared to the most recent months. The fact that these sales occurred in a month with very slow sales had a disproportionate effect of increasing the average price for the month with over $50,000 of the increase in the average selling price of detached properties coming from the 3 largest sales. The large increase in the average selling price compared to July 2012 should not be interpreted as a sign that the market is strengthening. Experienced local real estate professionals have noted that it is more important to focus on the high inventory levels and low sales volumes and the resulting inflated Months of Inventory (MOI) ratios than the average price which can be disproportionately affected by a small number of sales of very high value properties.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,988 in August 2012. This is slightly below the average listing rate for the past 12 years however the sales to new listing ratio of 41.8% was the second lowest of the past 12 years. Continued market weakness has resulted in a slowdown in new listings. However, experienced market players have noted that “sellers waiting for better selling conditions are not expected to see the current price levels for the foreseeable future and waiting to list their property should not be a strategy to obtain a higher selling price. Sellers must reduce their price expectations if they wish to complete their sale before the end of 2012.”

Active listings at the end of August 2012 were 17,652, down 3 per cent from July 2012. However, total MOI continued to increase for the sixth straight month and was 10.5 at the end of the month. MOI for detached increased to 12.5 months at August 2012 from 10.1 months at the end of July 2012. Attached and apartment inventory increased significantly to 9.3 months from 7.7 months. At these levels, there are significant downward pressures on selling prices and very few buyers are available for the number of active listings. MOI increased in nearly every sub-market during August 2012 from July 2012 with West Vancouver detached increasing from 12 to 21 months and Burnaby increasing to 15 from 11 months. Without a significant withdrawal of listings by current sellers in Greater Vancouver, these ratios are forecasted to deteriorate further during September.

The Residential Reference Price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased only marginally to $614,000 in August 2012 from $612,600 in August 2011. We believe that in September, the annual price comparison will show the first annual decreases in this index since 2009.

Sales of detached properties in August slowed to 625 units, a decrease of 39 per cent from the 1,020 detached sales recorded in August 2011, and a 30 per cent decrease from the 893 units sold in August 2010. August 2012 was the second lowest sales volume of detached in the past 12 years. The reference price for detached properties increased 1.4 per cent from August 2011 to $945,000 but fell from $949,000 in the previous month.

Sales of apartment properties fell to the lowest level in 12 years at 727 units in August 2012, a 24 per cent decrease compared to the 955 sales in August 2011, and a decrease of 22 per cent compared to the 955 sales in August 2010. The reference price of an apartment property was equal to the level at the end of August 2011 at $372,000.

Attached property sales in August 2012 totalled 298, a 26 per cent decrease compared to the 403 sales in August 2011, and a 20 per cent decrease from the 374 attached properties sold in August 2010. The reference price of an attached unit decreased 0.5 per cent from August 2011 to $464,000.

BC, Canada, data, Open Topic

Friday Free-for-all!

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146 Comments

It’s that time of the week again!  Friday is when we do our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

–Vancouver market in full retreat
–Championship of lost sales
–REBGV news release for July 2012
–GVREB news release for July 2012
–How much $ has left the economy?
–New site forces realtors to compete
–‘Think Housing’ contest winners
–Renovation Boom
–BCSC alleges million $ fraud
–No new steps to cool market
–New framework for credit unions
–Global slowdown dashes hopes
–Unsold Toronto condos growing

And here’s a couple of charts, the first one is from VMD and shows what the average Vancouver house price has done in the last two years:

This second chart is from Ben Rabidoux and was linked by Jesse – you can draw on your own red line for July:

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

 

BC, economy, hype, prices, supply

GVREB Press Release May 2012

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Note: Every month the GVREB releases a market update. These are very similar to the official REBGV press release – both use real numbers and expert anecdotes, but they spin different directions.  Here is the newest press release covering the Greater Vancouver real estate market for May 2012.

High Inventory Levels and Low Sales Volumes as Greater Vancouver Enters Summer Market

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE ON VCI

VANCOUVER, B.C. –June 1, 2012 – Sales in Greater Vancouver showed a typical seasonal trend in May but continue to be at low sales volume levels not seen for more than a decade. May showed a pronounced decrease in sales per market day falling from 147 last month to 130 in May. This decrease of 12 per cent compares to the typical average decrease from April to May of 9 per cent. Continued below average sales combined with continued above average listings have resulted in both record high seasonal inventories and near record low sales to listings ratios. Global economic uncertainty, tightening mortgage regulations, cautious buyer sentiment and reduced net immigration rates have reduced overall buyer demand.

May’s total unit sale activity was 2,857 properties. Although this is flat compared to April’s sales, there were 22 market days in May compared to 19 in April and May was the lowest May sales since May 2001. May 2012 sales were 15 per cent below the 3,377 units sold in May 2011 and 5 per cent below May 2008, which was the most recent low for May sales. May’s sale to list ratio of 41% was the second lowest in more than a decade and significantly below the historical average for May of approximately 61%.

GVREB reports that May 2012 continued a negative market sales trend which has existed for the past 10 months and considering expected changes in credit conditions, a recent reduction in the level of foreign buying activity, global financial uncertainty, macro-level demographic changes and continued media coverage of a possible overvalued market, there are no foreseen factors that could change the trend to a positive direction. Failure of current listings to be removed from the market or an immediate reduction in new listing rates will result in measurable price decreases by motivated sellers in the near future. May 2012 also brought significant decreases in average selling prices of detached and attached properties with the average detached price down 13 per cent from its peak in February 2012. During May, the average detached price in the last half of the month was 7 per cent lower than the first half resulting from more pronounced seller discounting in order to complete their sale transaction.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 6,950 in May. This is approximately 22 per cent above the 10-year listing average for the month of May. Listings in May 2012 represented a 17 per cent increase compared to May 2011 when 5,931 properties were listed for sale and an 1 per cent decrease compared to the 7,014 new listings reported in May 2010.

Greater Vancouver continued to have near seasonal record active listings. At 17,834, the total number of residential property listings in Greater Vancouver increased 8 per cent this month alone and 22 per cent compared to May 2011. Total Months of Inventory now is firmly in buyer’s market territory with approximately 6.2 months of inventory.

The Residential Reference Price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 5.1 per cent to $684,100 in May 2012 from $650,800 in May 2011. We expect that high inventory levels will put pressure on prices and we foresee very little likelihood of higher prices in the near future based on current market conditions.

Sales of detached properties in May 2012 slowed to 1,184, a decrease of 25 per cent from the 1,570 detached sales recorded in May 2011, and a 5 per cent decrease from the 1,256 units sold in April 2010. The larger year/year decrease in sales compared to the attached and apartment markets is due to the higher than normal sales volumes for detached properties in May 2011. The reference price for detached properties increased 5.4 per cent from May 2011 to $1,060,000 but fell from $1,064,800 in the previous month.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,190 in May 2012, a 3 per cent decrease compared to the 1,228 sales in May 2011, and a decrease of 12 per cent compared to the 1,354 sales in May 2010. The reference price of an apartment property was up 3.0 per cent from May 2011 to $385,000.

Attached property sales in May 2012 totalled 483, a 17 per cent decrease compared to the 579 sales in May 2011, and a 12 per cent decrease from the 546 attached properties sold in May 2010. The reference price of an attached unit increased 0.4 per cent from May 2011 to $480,000.

BC, data, hype, prices

GVREB Market Update April 2012

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Every month the GVREB releases it’s market update.  This should not be confused with the REBGV press releases.  Both use current market data and anecdotes from professionals but they spin different directions.

The GVREB is a volunteer organization.  You can help contribute knowledge and market data to their ongoing reports by emailing them at  gvreb1@gmail.com

Here’s the current market update for April 2012:

FOR EXCLUSIVE RELEASE ON VCI
Real Estate Market Sales Volumes Fall Further in Greater Vancouver

VANCOUVER, B.C. –May 1, 2012 – April saw the Greater Vancouver real estate market continue to falter as sales volumes decreased below all relevant comparative periods including a 4 per cent decline in detached sales from the previous month. Continued education of Canadian buyers on the risks of high debt levels as well as reduced expectations of future increases in real estate prices has inserted an increased level of caution in buyers.

GVREB reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 2,806 in April. This total represents a 13 per cent decrease compared to the 3,225 sales in April 2011. Looking back, sales activities were 20 per cent below the 3,512 units sold in April 2010 and also 5 per cent below the 2,963 units sold in April 2009. April’s sales volume and its sale to list ratio of 46% were both the lowest of the previous 12 years. In addition, we saw the average detached price fall a further 4% from March 2012 and is 8% below April 2011 in last year. The impact is partly been a result of a significant slowdown of properties valued over $3.0 million with months of inventory for these units are now exceeding 18 months.

Discussions with industry professionals have noted “This is the weakest spring we have seen since before 2001. Limited price increases over the past 5 years in the condo and townhouse market has resulted in a reduced pool of move up buyers. The excess of unsold newly built luxury detached properties has caused home builders to be absent as purchasers on the resale market as they focus on selling their existing completed homes. These two factors combined with changing buyer sentiment and stricter lending conditions, has resulted in significant inventory increases in the lower priced detached single family homes.” GVREB notes that previous inventory increases were concentrated in higher price categories and thus we now have a more broad market slowdown. GVREB also wishes to clarify that that major transportation and road infrastructure enhancements in more distant suburban locations have had little impact on prices with areas such as Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows only seeing insignificant price increases and many properties experiencing decreasing values.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 6,067 in April. This is approximately 12 per cent above the 10-year listing average for the month of April. Listings in April 2012 represent a 4 per cent increase compared to April 2011 when 5,847 properties were listed for sale and an 21 per cent decline compared to the 7,648 new listings reported in April 2010. The Spring listings pace increased 4 per cent from the 5,843 listings in March 2012.

We are now at decade high inventory levels for the Spring season and at 16,524, the total number of residential property listings in Greater Vancouver increased 16 per cent compared to April 2011, increased 8 per cent from the previous month and has increased 30 per cent since January 2012.

The Residential Reference Price for all residential properties in Grater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 5.1 per cent to $672,000 in April 2012 from $639,200 in April 2011. Although the market has increased in the past 12 months, gains are almost entirely a result of gains in the detached market. Price gains of detached prices in recent months however have been insignificant and we are now seeing prices fall in previously strong markets such as Richmond and Burnaby. Due to the limited gains outside of the detached market, leveraged sellers of attached properties and apartments are finding that the high transaction costs in real estate are eliminating much of their equity after selling. A significant majority of purchasers of condominiums across the Greater Vancouver region in the past two years would be unable to realize net gains by selling in current market conditions.

Sales of detached properties in April 2012 slowed to 1,130, a decrease of 19 per cent from the 1,402 detached sales recorded in April 2011, and a 18 per cent decrease from the 1,370 units sold in April 2010. On a month over month basis, sales declined 4 per cent during a period which we typically see an increasing sales trend. Sales during April of detached homes were the lowest since 2001 and were below the 1,190 sales made during April 2009 when the Greater Vancouver market started to recover from the sales reductions during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The reference price for detached properties increased 5.9 per cent from April 2011 to $1,042,000 but fell from $1,048,000 in the previous month.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,193 in April 2012, a 1 per cent decrease compared to the 1,201 sales in April 2011, and a decrease of 22 per cent compared to the 1,526 sales in April 2010. The reference price of an apartment property increased 1.9 per cent from April 2011 to $379,000.

Attached property sales in April 2012 totalled 483, a 22 per cent decrease compared to the 622 sales in April 2011, and a 22 per cent decrease from the 616 attached properties sold in April 2010. The reference price of an attached unit decreased 1.2 per cent from April 2011 and 2012 to $470,000.