Tag Archives: inventory

Friday Free-for-all! September 23, 2016

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Mother of all stock market corrections
Alternative lending on the rise
OECD slashes Canadian outlook
Poloz signals delay in rate increase
Empty home tax
Variable rates will soar
Sold as percentage of inventory data
Canadians buying ‘too much car’

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Friday (afternoon) Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again!

Let’s do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Ottawa making housing fix a top priority
Thanks for the help
Impact of housing on economy
Fake assets
Goodbye Vancouver
Empty Land
Household debt bigger than GDP
Average Weekly Inventory chart
Why the borrowing binge will end badly

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Vancouver Market Summary so far for August 2016

yvr2zrh wrote a good summary of what the market looks like currently, how media headlines can get it wrong and where we might go from here:

With about 9 market days remaining in the month, we can start to look forward to how the month will end up. During the past two weeks, we have seen so many numbers in the media which highlights not only is the market falling but also that the intricacies of the underlying data are not well-understood by so many people.

The message (although correct in that the market is bad) is so poorly explained and supported and thus the true state of the market is not clear to people. So – here is the summary of what is really happening.

1.) Sales volumes will be down around 25% for unit sales but 33% for dollar volume. My model predicts a 10% decrease in condo sales (which is not much).
2.) The decrease in average price across the entire market is driven primarily by mix at this stage. It is not known how much is driven by actual price movement. Likely little so far.
3. ) Detached home sales are down significantly. This is likely more than a 50% decrease from July volumes and could be more than 65% down from August 2015.
4.) It is not clear what the benchmark price will do but we would expect that the condo price is probably almost unchanged. This market is mainly suffering from supply issues which will take time to resolve. Detached benchmarks are likely to fall in the higher-priced markets. The reason is that there will be buyers but only low-ball buyers testing sellers.
5.) The stats will be partially supported by the month-end date cutoff issues at REBGV. They report sales based on the date they get paperwork. Many of the sales recorded to beat the tax will actually show as an August sale, while they are actually July sales. Since these are from a period with a “different regulatory and tax framework” they are not really comparable and should perhaps be shown separately for accuracy purposes.
6.) Inventory will be up a bit but we still have a supply shortage in condos. Detached house MOI will increase to 10 or more.

Ultimately, this tax is taking money out at the top. It will take a couple months to see how it all plays out but the top of the market will now need to rely on move-up buyers and bona fide immigrants who are permanent residents.

We can already see the headlines coming but some of the intricacies of the stats will not really be understood.

I also have some stories from the front lines which I will get more info on next month and then write a more detailed update.

And – let’s try to keep the discussion on topic as much as possible – we have started to waiver a bit in the past few weeks.

Posted by yvr2zrh on Friday August 19th 2016 in the comments section.

FFFA! Red Flags, BS, Inventory, Learning

You survived the rain!

And here we are at the end of another work week, could life get any better?

And since it’s the end of another week, what say we do our regular Friday Free-for-all post?

This is our end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend. ok? Lets do it!

Here are a few recent links to kick of the chat:
BOC raises red flags over housing
A new generation of renters
Bloated debt risk to economy
BS Talk?
Spending Vigour?
What I learned on VCI
Inventory Graph

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent (though perhaps slightly soggy) weekend!

FFFA! That was February 2013

Well, well, will you look at the time?

It’s Friday already!

And that means it’s time for our regular end of the week news round-up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.

Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Sales plunge, prices fall
The Price Graph
The Inventory Graph
VHB daily sell/list stat data dump
A $10 Million price drop
You can still get a cash-back mortgage
What’s the deal with foreign buyers?
Heroic gov victorious over bubble
Flaherty worries for US style mortgage war
Time to short the banks?
US foreclosure timelines in years
Bubble Fatigue

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!