Tag Archives: moi

Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again so lets do our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend!  Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Inventory starts to climb sharply
‘Vancouver condo crisis’ to hit Calgary?
Pillar of sand and fog
Statscan warned on RE bubble
Selling like a couch on craigslist
Only see a bubble in retrospect?
Digital Domain sinking fast
Rates stay low, good or bad?
Genworth: Don’t wait to buy Toronto
Immigration crackdown causes fraud?
Canadian exports collapse

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Will this be a better week for sellers?

Good monday to you all!

As we head into another week it will be interesting to see if the current dismal sales trend holds.

VHB puts it into perspective:

If we get another week like last week, we will be on pace for sub-2008 September sales. Pause and think about that. In the middle of the biggest financial crisis in 75 years, more houses were sold than now. Wow.

Wow indeed.

So let’s look short term – what do you think?  Will this week reverse the trend that kicked off the month or are we going to see more of the same?

Summer sales fail on a streak

According to Paulb tuesday saw only 66 properties sold in Vancouver.

VHB says that makes a record 11 days in a row with double digit sales.

We haven’t broken more than 100 sales in a day for more than two weeks.

As VHB points out:

I have PaulB’s daily numbers for 2010 to now. The current streak of 11 straight double digit sales days is now a record.

You might think you could see this kind of streak in December or January. But August? This is nutty low sales.

Yesterday was Wednesday and we saw 71 sales.  That means we’re now on the 12th day of an unbroken chain.

Even if this record holds up through the end of the month it will likely be broken on Tuesday as sales made over the long weekend will add two days into one.

But what we also might expect to see next week is a flood of listings.  Here’s VHB again:

In past years, the September listings surge begins precisely on the Tuesday right after Labour Day. Last year, we had 356 listings on that Tuesday. In 2010, it was 282.

So, it would be a surprise if there are fewer than 1000 new listings hitting the books during the four days next week. Good chance to get over 1200.

And finally ZRH2YVR left a wrap up of what this market is looking like in a few select areas. We’re approaching a MOI of 20 (!) in some areas:

1.) SFH in West Vancouver will end the month with approx 1 sale per day. Down 50% from last month and down 70% from last year. MOI will now be over 20 and up from 5 last year. Inventory is near record at 530 units.

2.) Richmond SFH. July repeat. Same sales level, same inventory. I would say prices have to be down. MOI close to 20. The month had a blip in the first half with the first 10 sales days coming at 33 sales but the next 10 days being 21 sales. Quite a different second half.

3.) Van-West Attached (Appartment/Townhouse). This is a big big market so it’s tough to have it stop completely. It is the centre of the uninformed buyer especially young people with parents money. This month will be 15% below last month, 30% below last year and pretty much on par with 2008. Many sources have indicated prices are down but maybe about 5%. So many units are available. MOI in this large market will end the month close to 9, up from 5 last year and 8 last month. The sales pace in first 10 days and second 10 days were constant.

Read his full comment for the low down on other areas including East Van, North Van and Burnaby.

West side a fragmented market

I think this comment from zrh2yvr is worth highlighting, so I’m pasting it into the submission page!

OK – Some more interesting data – Again just the facts.

Van-West Detached, a market which seems to be suffering, can be described as three markets. One where there are over 350 units for sale in excess of 3.2 million with MOI of over 18 months, 185 units for sale at 1.9M or less with a MOI of 3.8 months and approx 340 units for sale between 1.9M and 3.2M with MOI at 6.7 months.

For units priced at under 1.9M, there is a severe lack of inventory which could be a reason for lower sales volumes. One has to wonder however, what will become of this high-end with properties for sale over $3.2 million? They are selling only at a slow pace but at 18 months, I would say many sellers would be happy to just wait for thay buyer.

Meanwhile, inventory is creeping up. Just like Richmond however, it is creeping up only in the low-mid range of the properties. The number of properties for sale with an age of up to 10 years has not changed since January (approx 230 units). However, in the range of 10-115 years old, overall, inventory is up by 80 units or 17%. In the tear-down category (those with age of 999), there are 9 more units or 11% so this could also be seen to have increased.

What is this saying? I would say that until the top starts to fall, there is not much down side in the Van-West market. Not much upside either as on the higher-prices, there are many many choices.

When looking at MOI, Given that sales of the higher-end properties have been picking up, we are seeing MOI for the new inventory decrease where now there is only 13 months for homes up to 5 years compared to approx 17 months in January. This is not a great level and is truly one to put downward pressure on prices. One has to wonder how many of these properties are held by speculators or builders who need to sell.

Finally, what areas are we seeing with deterioration in MOI?

Oak – Now at 10 compared to 5
Kerrisdale – Now at 10 compared to 7
South Granville – Now at 14 compared to 12
Cambie – Now at 9 compared to 6
McKenzie Heights – 8 compared to 6

Shaugnessy has highest MOI still but has improved to 16 from 18.

The most important ares with low inventory and tight MOI are:
Kits – 3.7 months now compared with 3.4 previous
Dunbar – 4.4 months now compared with 6.2 previous
Point Grey – 5 months of inventory same as previous


So overall, we are seeing the market change. The foreign buyer and the top-end buyer are not in the marketplace in sufficient numbers to acquire the high-priced inventory that is for sale. Limited numbers of units for sale under 1.9M are creating tight supply, but also low sales volume. However, ALL inventory increases have occurred in the lower priced ranges and are not evenly distributed throughout the entire market. It is not clear what we will see next. Perhaps it will be recent low-priced land plays coming back on the market as they realize there is too much competition on the new-build market. Perhaps we will see some high-end builders having to reduce to clear their inventory.

Either way – it is going to play out slowly until there is a change in the credit markets that changes the access to credit for all buyers.