This is kind of amazing.
yvr2zrh posted this analysis of the percentage of property listings for sale that are vacant:
Across REBGV 19% of listed SFH are vacant and 31% of attached/apartments are vacant. So – 50% as the comment from Jesse is higher than actual but not completely out of reach for apartments. Some variations are noted.
SFH Vacant stats (number/%)(in order or highest to lowest)
Richmond 175 – 24%
Van West 148 – 23%
North Van 55 – 21%
Port Coq – 22 – 21%
Whistler – 39 – 21%
Van East – 87 – 20%
Burnaby – 71 – 20%
etc . . .
For Apartment/Attached, the following are the vacant properties
Whistler – 177 (42%)
Maple Ridge – 94 (34%)
Van West – 522 (34%)
New West 110 (33%)
Van East – 169 (33%)
Burnaby – 261 (31%)
Richmond – 298 (31%)
North Van – 115 (30%)
So, even if you have people who just want to hold back, why would they when there is cash outflows to carry the property and the future outlook is for price decreases?
Those who just hold off selling, where they are actually living in the unit, and are waiting for prices to increase, are bound to die living in that unit.
Later today, I will post my predictions for the 2013 market based on my model. What is really helpful is the MOI/monthly price change graph. That has been a really good indicator of price movements. Thus, I will post the projected MOI movements for 2013 and then we can see where the prices fall. It is important to know that listing volumes are down from last year. This is sufficiently so that we may see 2013 inventory intersect the 2012 inventory possibly at the end of the Spring and then track 2012 for the rest of the year.
This will be interesting to watch because once we are down 10-15% from peak prices – how can they continue to say things like prices are flat and this is a soft landing? I would say any decrease of 20% from the peak is not good as you immediately remove even more move-up buyers and put 1000′s of people underwater immediately.
With more and more noise in the news lately about falling sales and prices in the Vancouver real estate market developers are getting creative.
When even the real estate industry predicts prices to be lower in the future how do you sell new condos?
How about offering a $100k price drop guarantee?
Crabman points out that’s what the Kimpton in North Van is offering.
It’s not entirely clear how it works, but lets assume they don’t mean that they guarantee prices will drop $100k in the next two years.
“New guaranteed prices are what you will pay today and are net of the $100,000 price protection guarantee provided by the developer and registered on the title on closing”
Here’s the ad:
And here’s a shot of the sign currently on the building exterior:
This is certainly an interesting alternative to the many stealth price drops that we usually see: free car, etc.
What do you think? If you’re looking to buy but concerned about falling prices would the price drop guarantee make you more willing to purchase?
According to Paulb tuesday saw only 66 properties sold in Vancouver.
VHB says that makes a record 11 days in a row with double digit sales.
We haven’t broken more than 100 sales in a day for more than two weeks.
As VHB points out:
I have PaulB’s daily numbers for 2010 to now. The current streak of 11 straight double digit sales days is now a record.
You might think you could see this kind of streak in December or January. But August? This is nutty low sales.
Yesterday was Wednesday and we saw 71 sales. That means we’re now on the 12th day of an unbroken chain.
Even if this record holds up through the end of the month it will likely be broken on Tuesday as sales made over the long weekend will add two days into one.
But what we also might expect to see next week is a flood of listings. Here’s VHB again:
In past years, the September listings surge begins precisely on the Tuesday right after Labour Day. Last year, we had 356 listings on that Tuesday. In 2010, it was 282.
So, it would be a surprise if there are fewer than 1000 new listings hitting the books during the four days next week. Good chance to get over 1200.
And finally ZRH2YVR left a wrap up of what this market is looking like in a few select areas. We’re approaching a MOI of 20 (!) in some areas:
1.) SFH in West Vancouver will end the month with approx 1 sale per day. Down 50% from last month and down 70% from last year. MOI will now be over 20 and up from 5 last year. Inventory is near record at 530 units.
2.) Richmond SFH. July repeat. Same sales level, same inventory. I would say prices have to be down. MOI close to 20. The month had a blip in the first half with the first 10 sales days coming at 33 sales but the next 10 days being 21 sales. Quite a different second half.
3.) Van-West Attached (Appartment/Townhouse). This is a big big market so it’s tough to have it stop completely. It is the centre of the uninformed buyer especially young people with parents money. This month will be 15% below last month, 30% below last year and pretty much on par with 2008. Many sources have indicated prices are down but maybe about 5%. So many units are available. MOI in this large market will end the month close to 9, up from 5 last year and 8 last month. The sales pace in first 10 days and second 10 days were constant.
Read his full comment for the low down on other areas including East Van, North Van and Burnaby.