Tag Archives: predictions

TD: Houses 10% overpriced nationally

Somebody over at TD bank looked in their crystal ball and saw interest rates rising.

They say that a combination of factors including increasing supply, softening demand and the expectation of rising interest rates mean that home price across the nation are overvalued by about 10%.

It says markets such as Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa are likely more overvalued than markets in the Prairie and Atlantic regions, and will likely see more of an impact.

The national housing market and worries about a real estate bubble have been key concerns for policy-makers for several years.

Recent indicators have suggested the market may be headed for a soft landing instead of a bubble bursting, but concerns have persisted.

Full article here.

Down is the new flat in Vancouver and Victoria

A ‘flat’ market sounds good right?

Not too up, not too down, but just right.

It means if you buy a condo now you won’t have to suffer the indignity of someone buying the unit upstairs from you for $100k less in the future.

So flat is comfortable and we’re starting to see that word a lot more these days.  This article uses it in the headline: Vancouver condo market stays flat.

So you might be surprised to read the following directly under that headline:

Although Vancouver has a reputation as one of the most expensive cities in North America for housing, condo prices stayed flat or even dropped last year, according to recently released assessment numbers.

That follows several years of the same pattern, which means overall condo prices are now seven to eight per cent lower in inflation-adjusted dollars than they were at the recent peak of the condo market in 2009, says one analyst.

Meanwhile in the capital city they’re using the same word: Flat forecast for Greater Victoria home prices.

And here’s what they say:

Although the number of homes sold for the past year rose by four per cent to 5,998 from 5,747 in 2012, the benchmark price for a single-family house slid by 3.2 per cent. That benchmark, representing a typical house, was $479,599 in December, down from $495,400 during the same month in 2012, the board said Thursday.

The benchmark price has dropped from three years ago when it was $515,500, the board said. And it’s lower than the $483,400 price recorded five years ago.

So here’s the cheat sheet:

Vancouver ‘flat’ = 7-8% drop over four years.

Victoria ‘flat’ = $35,901 drop over three years.

Goodbye 2013! Hello 2014!

Well here we are wrapping up 2013.

The Vancouver market continues to fluctuate in its flat range.

Owners are still paying more than renters, but can paint their walls whatever colour they want.

Renters are still more flexible when it comes to relocation and some of them have more diversified investments, but some of them just want to paint their walls whatever colour they want.

The Vancouver housing bubble is boring.

Not like some of the more exciting housing bubbles around the world.  Remember the Celtic Tiger?  Ireland had a giant boom, but now they’re tearing down brand new homes.

So what will 2014 hold in store for the Vancouver Real Estate Market?  A slump, a dump, a bump or a jump?

What do you think, are we in for an exciting year or another yawner?

Canada: the worlds biggest housing bubble?

Are we the home of the worlds biggest housing bubble?

That’s what they’re saying over at the Atlantic.

How real is Canada’s housing bubble anyway? More real than any other country’s.


As realtors like to remind us, every market’s different, but there are three big takeaways here.
1) Rich Chinese buyers tend to make for overheated markets. Some of the priciest housing markets in the world have one thing in common, besides low-interest rates (which prevail most everywhere): Chinese expats. Vancouver, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Sydney are among the most popular destinations for wealthy Chinese looking to hedge their bets, and this exit-strategy buying has helped push prices in these locales into the stratosphere.
2) Housing busts can take awhile. After a decade of boom and bust, prices are back to fair value, below it actually, in the U.S. and Ireland, but still have a way to come down in Spain and Britain. Zombie banks tend to be reluctant to realize losses on bad loans, propping up prices in the process, but eventually reality has its day. The sooner that happens, the sooner housing, and construction, can come back.
3) Housing recoveries can take even longer. It was just 20 years ago that the land below the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was supposed to be worth more than all of the land in California combined. But beware the enduring costs of bad macro policy. Too tight money for too long has kept housing prices in hibernation decades on.

FFFA! New Year, Peak & Crash.

It’s the end of another week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all.  This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  The first one of 2013!

Lets get to the links:

REBGV HPI: peak down this much
Here’s the press release
Hottest property values dip in 2012
Real Estate boom meet Dot Com Crash
Jesse wins the 2012 prediction contest
Here’s the 2013 prediction contest
Why housing prices aren’t coming back
Whistler condos down 39% over 5 years
Dec 2012 Condo battle map
Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

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