Tag Archives: slowdown

Yes We Have No Bubble Trouble.

For all of you worried about a ‘housing bubble’ just stop and read this article:

No Housing Bubble Trouble.

At the national level, what could possibly kick national home prices downstairs? There is nothing to suggest massive job loss ahead or a huge oversupply of new homes. That leaves only the dubious assumption of a big increase in mortgage interest rates as the trigger for any nationwide decline in home prices. But national housing prices did not fall in the past when mortgage rates rose to twice their current level.

Oh, wait.. Sorry that’s from the Washington Times in 2005 and refers to the US market.

This is the one I meant to point to:

No Bubble, No Trouble.

A housing slowdown in Toronto and Vancouver could affect consumer confidence in regions with strong economic fundamentals like Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax, adds Don Campbell, best-selling author of Real Investing in Canada. But rather than a sharp decline, you’re more likely to see slower rates of price appreciation and home sales, says McKellar. “Overall the economy of Canada compared to other countries is still doing very well,” he says. “Housing markets are a function of the economy. Not the other way around.”

Hat-tip to Patriotz and Many Franks for the article links.

 

 

Falling, not crashing.

Here’s a nice article that should reassure you.

The housing market in Canada is forecast to fall, but not crash like in the US.

In fact the first three paragraphs each repeat that this will NOT be like a US style crash.

Canadian housing prices will fall 10% over the next several years and homebuilding will slow sharply in 2013, but the country’s recent property boom is not expected to end in a U.S.-style collapse, according to a Reuters poll.

The survey of 20 forecasters published on Friday showed the majority believe the Canadian government has done enough to rein in runaway prices, preventing the type of crash that has devastated the U.S. market for years.

“This isn’t a sharp correction, this isn’t a U.S.-style correction, it’s just simply an unwinding of the excess valuation that was created by artificially low interest rates for a long period of time,” said Craig Alexander, chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.

“I would emphasize that while a 10 % correction sounds scary, in actual fact, this would be a healthy outcome.”

Just a gentle feather slowly drifting to the safety of the ground.

Read the full article here.

Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again! Let’s wrap up the work week with our regular news round-up and open topic discussion thread.  Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Inventory inches up
Canada’s housing crash begins
BC slowdown signals wider slump
No Cam, thats not what happened
Mommy, can I borrow the car?
Vancouvers economic well-being
No more land, lots more condos
Tiny little boxes
25% drop in Vancouver?
Come back to BC!
Why rent?

 

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

Friday Free-for-all!

It’s that time of the week again!  Friday is when we do our regular end of the week news roundup and open topic discussion thread for the weekend.  Here are a few links to kick off the chat:

Vancouver market in full retreat
Championship of lost sales
REBGV news release for July 2012
GVREB news release for July 2012
How much $ has left the economy?
New site forces realtors to compete
‘Think Housing’ contest winners
Renovation Boom
BCSC alleges million $ fraud
No new steps to cool market
New framework for credit unions
Global slowdown dashes hopes
Unsold Toronto condos growing

And here’s a couple of charts, the first one is from VMD and shows what the average Vancouver house price has done in the last two years:

This second chart is from Ben Rabidoux and was linked by Jesse – you can draw on your own red line for July:

So what are you seeing out there?  Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!