Tag Archives: stats

Won’t you please help a hungry house salesperson?

Are you aware of the Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index?

Across the city you’ll see used house salespeople who are having trouble making their german auto lease payments – a decline in the glory days of Vancouver real estate affects us all.

That lost commission translates into a deferred payment to a local auto dealer, who might not buy that extra big ad in the local newspaper.  Will that editor buy his ounce of weed this month?  Will that grow op have the money to expand?

These are the big issues to consider.

Please.

If you’re thinking about buying a house or apartment in Vancouver BC or know somebody who is, your commission can make all the difference.

Just jump in and do it. Now is the time.

The Vancouver Realtor Hunger Index for February 2014 stands at 62%.*

And while thats nowhere near the worst that we’ve seen it, it’s a hell of a lot worse that the halcyon days of 2004 where for two solid months every used house salesperson in the city was fed.

You can help.  Buy a house or condo in Vancouver BC and lets keep this economy rolling.

*A big thanks to RFM for the data. 

October 2013: Vancouver house prices stalled out.

After last years abysmally low number of home sales, some people will be glad to know that sales have climbed.

Unfortunately that hasn’t done anything for prices.

The REBGV has released their october stats package and the composite benchmark price for all properties has actually dropped slightly from where it was a year ago, dipping a tiny half a percentage point.

The Province see this as a big rebound for the most expensive real estate market in Canada.

Realtor: DO NOT PANIC about bubble.

There’s an interesting read over at BCBusinessOnline about those crazy bubble bloggers and forum bears:

The “Bears” talk cover up which I always find so intriguing. Commenting on the September stats from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, Seth M. says:  “This will only make the conspiratorially minded angrier — most of them convinced that the so-called benchmark indices produced by organized real estate are covering up a major decline.” The reality is the numbers from behind the HPI are actuals.  They aren’t fabricated to prop up a cyclic market so that realtors can hang onto their markets.

Now there may be some of you that believe the ‘cover up’ angle on the HPI, but I think you’re maybe a little crazy.  There is nothing to be gained by massaging the numbers.  My feeling on the HPI is that there seems to have been no good reason to change the methodology for calculating it.  It used to be a very decent apples to apples historical comparison, but by changing the measurement and then recalculating it they’ve killed its value as a long term gauge.

I think any problems with the HPI come down to opacity and bad math, not any smoky back room conspirators whose only goal is to keep house prices high.

But what do I know?  I’m just a crazy anonymous bubble blogger.

Less than a hundred reasons RE is collapsing

There are 3 sales day left in September 2012.

That’s 3 more chances to have a day when we see sales over 100.

Do you know how many days we’ve seen sales go over 100 so far this month?

ONE.

There has only been one day this month where sales went over 100.

Here’s the last couple of Septembers for historical comparison:

2010: 11 days with triple digit sales

2011: 14 days with triple digit sales

2012: 1 day of triple digit sales (max possible 4)

Thanks to VHB for the stats and PaulB for the numbers.

2012: Worst July since 2008

Ring the bell!  July 2012 has come to a close.

Soon we’ll see the press releases from the REBGV (and more entertaining from the GVREB) but it’s starting to look a lot like 2008 again.

Sales have dropped off dramatically, we’re down about 16% from last July and about 9% from last month.

Listings are growing slower than they did in the spring, but MOI is close to what it was in July 2008 according to VMD:

July 2012 Sales:
YoY: -16%
MoM: -9%

Months Inventory:

2012-07: ~8.5
2012-06: 7.8
2012-05: 6.3
2012-04: 5.9
2012-03: 5.3
...
2011-07: 5.9
...
2008-07: 8.8

According to madashell we needed to see less than 115 listings on the last day of the month to have lower sales volume than 2008.

It looks like we just squeaked under that, Paulb says we saw 106 sales for the day.  Here are the rest of the stats for July 31st:

New Listings 186
Price Changes 137
Sold Listings 106
TI:19188