Tag Archives: volume

2012: Worst July since 2008

Ring the bell!  July 2012 has come to a close.

Soon we’ll see the press releases from the REBGV (and more entertaining from the GVREB) but it’s starting to look a lot like 2008 again.

Sales have dropped off dramatically, we’re down about 16% from last July and about 9% from last month.

Listings are growing slower than they did in the spring, but MOI is close to what it was in July 2008 according to VMD:

July 2012 Sales:
YoY: -16%
MoM: -9%

Months Inventory:

2012-07: ~8.5
2012-06: 7.8
2012-05: 6.3
2012-04: 5.9
2012-03: 5.3
...
2011-07: 5.9
...
2008-07: 8.8

According to madashell we needed to see less than 115 listings on the last day of the month to have lower sales volume than 2008.

It looks like we just squeaked under that, Paulb says we saw 106 sales for the day.  Here are the rest of the stats for July 31st:

New Listings 186
Price Changes 137
Sold Listings 106
TI:19188

 

Buyers market is a silly way to put it

What does ‘Buyers market’ mean to you?

Is it a market in which the buyer has lots of choice or gets a reasonable price?

..because they aren’t the same thing.

Now that prices are dropping from their record highs on Vancouver real estate, we’re seeing the term ‘buyers market’ bandied about in the media a lot.  And with a huge number of places for sale and actual transactions falling to a 10 year low there’s lots of choice.

But prices are still near record highs!

Real estate is a slow illiquid market, it takes LOTS of time for trends to move through.  Just take a look at the USA, there are some people thinking they’ve hit bottom in some markets after SIX YEARS of falling prices.  Don’t expect deals within a few months, or even a few years.

Real estate marketers will use the term ‘buyers market’ a lot in the coming years, because they make money off transactions.  If it’s not a good time to sell it must be a good time to buy right?

There is one nice thing happening with the shift in the local market though: the Vancouver Sun is starting to publish a bit more variety when it comes to RE market opinion:

Investors in stocks wouldn’t consider a drop in volume to be a buyer’s market in the absence of price changes. The adage that volume precedes price instructs investors to be patient. There’s no compelling reason for real estate buyers to act differently.

Bravo Vancouver Sun, Bravo.

Sales plunge to 10 year low

The June news release from the REBGV has been released and it looks like the market has turned a corner.

As all of you regular readers here know, sales have plunged to a 10 year low.

The HPI benchmark price has also dropped from the previous month in some areas.  Oddly enough it’s houses in the desirable west side and Richmond which have both dropped about 2% from May.

Best Place on Meth summarizes the total changes for all areas:

Summary of June HPI:

All -0.7%
SFH -0.6%
Apt -0.9%
T/H -0.3%

I was expecting no change for June and declines to start next month so this is a bit of a bonus.

Yes the hot summer market has turned out to be anything but.  As prices drop a few percentage points from their all time highs some are calling this a ‘buyers market‘.

Meanwhile at least one local realtor has sold his own house and says it’s time to cash out.